Who Needs A.I. When You Have a Stick Shift?

As the father of two teenage boys, I was intrigued by Vatsal Thakkar’s piece in Sunday’s New York Times: Forget Self-Driving Cars. Bring Back the Stick Shift.

This summer, my sons will be fighting over the use of our 2003 Subaru Forrester—the black bomber with the leaky roof, the passenger side window that never quite closes and the odometer well into the six-figures. Rarely a day goes by when they don’t remind me it’s time to upgrade them to something sensible like a Porsche, Tesla or Maserati (used of course, to save money). At which point I remind them I’ll go car shopping with them when they get a full-time J.O.B.

Besides, numerous studies show that even beat-up Subarus hold up well in accidents—even better if the car has a manual transmission like ours—which keeps the driver 100-percent engaged. Thakkar, a clinical assistant professor of psychiatry at NYU, said: “A car with a stick shift and clutch pedal requires the use of all four limbs, making it difficult to use a cell phone or eat while driving. Lapses in attention are therefore rare.” Apparently our auto insurer agrees.

I would add to Thakkar’s list the following:

• A stick shift significantly reduces the driver’s ability to text.
• A stick shift significantly reduces the driver’s ability to fiddle with the radio dial or sound system.
• A stick shift significantly reduces the driver’s ability to check their hair every five minutes in the rearview mirror.
• Since fewer and fewer cars now come with manual transmissions, a stick shift significantly reduces the driver’s ability to loan the keys to a friend—especially past curfew.

The point is that technology designed to save us from distraction can make us even more distracted. As Thakkar noted, the percentage of new cars sold with backup cameras doubled between 2008 and 2011, but the backup fatality rate declined by less than a third, while backup injuries dropped only 8 percent.
According to a report from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration “Many drivers are not aware of the limitations” of the technology. The report also found that 20 percent of drivers had become so reliant on the backup aids that they had experienced a collision or near miss while driving other vehicles.

“The fact that our brains so easily over-delegate this task to technology makes me worry about the tech industry’s aspirations — the fully autonomous everything,” related Thakkar. “Could technology designed to save us from our lapses in attention actually make us even less attentive?”

A government study on the driving performance of teenage boys with A.D.H.D. found that cars having manual transmissions resulted in safer, more attentive driving than cars with automatic transmission. “This suggests that the cure for our attentional voids might be less technology, not more,” added Thakkar.

Technology is the future and a key “driver” of innovation, but we can’t let it become all-consuming. From the mishaps with self-driving cars to the faulty software on the Boeing 737 Max 8’s, over-reliance on technology can often turn against us.

Conclusion

I know that several of you on this distribution list are car enthusiasts. I’m sure you’ll agree that driving with a manual transmission is a lot more fun than driving an automatic. It also reduces wear and tear on the breaks and if done reasonably well, will get you better gas mileage.

My boys like to make fun of my clumsy texting, lame emojis and app-nophobia, but when it comes to cars, I’m keeping it old school. Now where can I get my Blackberry fixed?

# Vatsal Thakkar     #AI    #manual transmission  #overreliance on technology #Subaru

Survey: CPAs, Wealth Advisors Increasingly Pessimistic about Markets, Economy

                                                                                                             

CONTACT:
Hank Berkowitz
203-852-9200

Hberkowitz@Hbpubdev.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

DC turbulence, Trump tariffs and overvalued stock market leading causes of concern. But, nation’s financial literacy gradually improving

·       Nearly 90-percent expect market correction within 12 months.

·       More than half (52%) say recession is “somewhat” or “very” likely.

·        Highest-performing firms most likely to publish, speak and do media interviews.

·        Wealth advisors are far more optimistic about their growth prospects than CPAs.

·         Millennials are the most pessimistic generation financially speaking.

·         Two-thirds of advisors (68%) believe America’s financial literacy has not improved—point finger at K-12 schools.

Norwalk, CT—March 16, 2019—Despite a record high stock market and historically low unemployment, financial advisors are taking a more cautious view of the financial landscape than they did at this time a year ago. According to the recently completed Wealth Advisor Confidence Survey^™ conducted by HB Publishing & Marketing Company, LLC in association with The Financial Awareness Foundation and CPA Trendlines, seven out of eight CPAs and wealth advisors (87%) expect at least one more stock market correction of at least 10 percent within 12 months--up from 82 percent who felt this way in early 2018. Additionally, more than half of respondents (52%) believe a recession is “somewhat” or “very” likely within 12 months, up from 33 percent of respondents who felt this way in early 2018.

Leading causes of concern were:

1. DC turbulence,
2. Trump tariffs,
3. An overvalued stock market,
4. Fears about continued interest rate hikes, and
5. Long-term doubts about the Trump tax plan.

While more than three in four advisors (77%) expect their firms to grow in 2019, the percentage that expect “double-digit” revenue growth (i.e. more than 10%) in early 2019 declined significantly to 28 percent of respondents from 49 percent in early 2018.

“Accountants are clearly turning bearish on the economic and market outlook,” according to Rick Telberg, CEO of CPA Trendlines Research. “If there’s ever been a time for investors and taxpayers to be listening to their financial advisors, this is the time!”

Nearly 300 CPAs and independent wealth advisors participated in the 20-question online survey between January and early February 2019. No premiums, sweepstakes or other incentives were offered to encourage participants to respond—just pre-publication access to the results.

Most effective advisor communication tools

As was the case in 2018, firms that communicated frequently with clients were more likely than other firms to be optimistic about their growth prospects. As was the case in 2018, the five communication channels that respondents rated “very” or “extremely” effective were:

1.      Public speaking.

2.      Writing articles for publication.

3.      Being quoted in the press.

4.      Publishing books/eBooks.

5.      Hosting webinars.

While respondents said publishing via LinkedIn had some value, most social media channels including Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and Snapchat were rated among the least effective advisor communication tools.

Nation’s financial literacy getting better, but plenty of room for improvement

Only one-third of surveyed advisors (32%) believe America’s financial literacy has improved since the 2016 elections. Nearly half of respondents (42%) believe it has remained stagnant in recent years and more than one in four (28%) believe the nation’s financial literacy is declining. Advisors overwhelmingly state that K-12 schools could make the biggest impact on improving our nation’s financial literacy—far more than any other types of educational, government or religious institutions.

“Unfortunately only 17 states require high school students to take courses in personal finance and not all teachers are financially literate themselves,” noted Valentino Sabuco, Executive Director, The Financial Awareness Foundation and co-author of the survey. “To make the situation even more challenging, many knowledgeable financial service professionals are not authorized to teach K-12 students because they don’t have teaching credentials. But, CPAs, attorneys, CFPs, wealth managers, charitable gift planners and personal investors can still make a substantial difference by joining the Improving Financial Awareness & Financial Literacy Movement,” added Sabuco.

About CPA Trendlines
With more than 200,000 followers, subscribers, and clients, CPA Trendlines is the largest independent community in the accounting profession. Its contributors are experts recognized in the profession as leading influencers, thought leaders, practitioners, professionals and advisors. CPA Trendlines provides exclusive tools, tips, trends, and guidance, plus exclusive research, insights, and commentary on the most pressing issues and fastest-changing trends. The community is dedicated to providing accounting professionals with smarter, faster, data-based decision-making to advance their careers and their organizations.

About The Financial Awareness Foundation
The Financial Awareness Foundation is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization whose mission is to significantly help solve a major social problem dealing with the lack of financial awareness and financial illiteracy. The Foundation serves as a nonpolitical “financial awareness advocate” for the general public, the financial services industry, nonprofits professionals and their organizations, educational institutions, municipalities, employers and the news media.

About HB Publishing & Marketing Company, LLC
Established in 1991, HB Publishing & Marketing Company, LLC is a hands-on content marketing and business development firm that helps wealth advisors, estate planners, CPAs, insurance professionals and financial industry associations dramatically improve their client communications, industry visibility, client retention and new client (or member) acquisition efforts. 

www.HBPubdev.com

50 Washington Street, 7^th Floor
Norwalk, CT 06854
(203) 852-9200

#   #    #

Survey: Another Market Correction Likely in 2019. Should We Be Worried?

Our recently completed Wealth Advisor Confidence Survey™ 2019 found that nearly 90 percent of independent financial advisors and CPAs expect at least one more double-digit stock market correction over the next 12 months. Again, they don’t necessarily think we’ll end 2019 in negative territory, but they do think we’ll see some jarring bumps and potholes along the way.

So what?

Last week the bull market quietly celebrated its 10^th anniversary, making it the second-longest running winning streak for stocks in history. Your clients who remained fully invested over that period were amply rewarded to the tune of + 305%. But alas, not all of them followed your advice and much of the American public simply missed out.

As Matt Phillips noted in The New York Times, “The psychological and financial damage inflicted by the 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing Great Recession continue to weigh heavily. Fewer people are invested in stocks than before the meltdown and many of them are wary of taking their gains for granted,” Phillips added.

That’s not very smart and several of clients have explained why in the national media recently. Here are some excerpts:

“Volatility returned to the markets in a big way in 2018, though the absence of volatility is a more abnormal market environment,” observed Anthony Glomski, founder of Los Angeles-based AG Asset Advisory and author of the book Liquidity and You, an exit planning guide for successful tech and business entrepreneurs. “These conditions are often amplified in the tech sector and can be viewed by patient long-term investors as opportunities to buy stocks that perhaps haven’t been discounted for years.”

Chas Boinske, CFA, head of Independence Advisors in Wayne, PA said that while it’s difficult to remain calm during a substantial market decline, it is important to remember that volatility is a normal part of investing. “Additionally, for long-term investors, reacting emotionally to volatile markets may be more detrimental to portfolio performance than the drawdown itself,” Boinske added.

Matt Topley, Chief Investment Officer of Fortis Wealth (Valley Forge, PA) said the surest way to go broke in stock market history is to try to predict market declines. “The U.S. stock market has experienced a dozen 20-percent corrections over the last 70 years and the market is still up by a total of 15,000 percent over that time. The market really works and managing money is not about what you know, it’s about how you behave,” added Topley.

James Nevers, CFP, an adviser with Soundmark Wealth Management (Kirkland, WA) abides by the adage: “Time in the market always beats timing the market.” Since no one can consistently predict what the market will do in the short term, “the best any of us can hope to do is to capture as much of the diversified global markets return as possible,” explained Nevers. “Sure, there are plenty of examples of people getting lucky, but there are just as many stories of people losing it all on a ‘sure thing’. When you are constantly looking at when to get in and out of the markets you lose focus on the long-term probability of winning by participating.”

While market volatility can be nerve-racking for investors, “reacting emotionally and changing long-term investment strategies in response to short-term declines could prove more harmful than helpful,” noted Boinske. “By adhering to a well-thought-out investment plan, ideally agreed upon in advance of periods of volatility, investors may be better able to remain calm during periods of short-term uncertainty.”

Conclusion

According to Nevers, “the less you look at your portfolio, the less you will feel regret and uncertainty caused by daily, weekly or monthly declines in the market. The less you look at your portfolio the less chance you have of making an emotional decision to get out of the market and stop participating,” said Nevers.

#Fortis Wealth #Matt Topley #James Nevers #Soundmark Wealth #10 year Bull market anniversary #Chas Boinske #Independence Advisors #Anthony Glomski #AG Asset Advisory