Voices of Reason from Medicine and Finance

Last week’s post (I’m Not Scared; I’m Pissed) generated more comments than usual. What surprised me more was that almost everyone agreed with me. Trust me, that doesn’t happen often.

So, it got me thinking. Maybe I’m not just in the vocal minority this time. Let me share some great thinking with you from medical and financial experts on this distribution list.

Dr. Tom Hedberg, Executive Director of the International Medical Crisis Response Alliance (IMCRA), told me we’re still a long way from the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 that infected one-fourth of the world’s population and killed close to one million Americans. However, there’s no guarantee it can’t happen again.

“While our treatment facilities are excellent, a virulent airborne mutant contagion could prove a serious threat, and widespread infection rates could easily overwhelm such facilities,” observed Hedberg. He added that Americans are exceptionally well-informed about medical and health issues and many will be likely to take appropriate individual measures (i.e. work from home, gloves in public, disinfectant wipes in the home).

While we all have to be highly diligent about hygiene and observing shelter-in-place rules, Dr. Hedberg believes the virus in its current form poses the greatest threat to elderly persons with pre-existing health conditions. “Young children are only slightly affected and robust healthy persons are: 1) likely to get over the infection on their own and 2) Very likely to get over it with treatment,” maintained Hedberg.

“The bottom line of course will be the number of virus carriers coming into the country from high infection-rate areas. This can be limited by curtailing flights FROM such countries and encouraging flights OUT of the US. Unfortunately, the government seems to be handling this backwards if it is handling it at all,” Hedberg added.

You’re getting advice from a zillion different places, and I don’t need to add to the confusion—Josh Patrick

Josh Patrick, founder of Stage 2 Planning Partners and host of The Sustainable Business podcast told me: “Yes, the markets are plunging. Yes, we don’t have nearly enough test kits and when we do, the number of cases will skyrocket. We need testing so we know where and how bad the issue is. That’s when we can start taking actions that we know will help.”
As Patrick noted, it appears the number of cases in South Korea and China is moving down. “South Korea has been testing extensively and is likely the best model for us to use right now. I’m hoping our government figures out how to get testing done widely so we know what the real issue and numbers are in the country.”

According to Patrick, we need to have all of our news sources and political leaders tell us the truth about what’s going on. “The advice we’re getting from the science community seems to be good advice. The advice from our politicians has been mixed. The truth is with all the disinformation about the virus and its effects makes it more difficult to know what to do and what not to do. The science people are saying we are now in a phase they term community spread, so it’s now being transmitted from one human to another within our country and not from people outside the country,” noted Patrick.

Dr. Hedberg, a neuroscientist by training, had a unique take on the stock market sell-off triggered by Coronavirus. “This was a typical Stage-1 emotional response, which is usually highly volatile. The Stage-2 response came a bit later when investors began to realize how a large-scale shutdown in Chinese industry for an indefinite period would impact their holdings financially. The Stage-3 response which is underway right now is a more sober long-term assessment of the medical realities of the disease worldwide and how it may impact international trade and finance,” added Hedberg.

“We’ve been expecting a downturn in the markets, we just didn’t know what would trigger it. Now we know,” observed Patrick. “The markets don’t like uncertainty. That’s one thing we have a ton of right now. After we start seeing real numbers and see what the impact will be on the economy, I expect the markets will adjust appropriately… either up or down.”

Dr. Hedberg expects to see some “Stage 3” market correction as investors learn more about the disease and “how low the death rate is compared to the infection rate--and which segments of the population (i.e. the elderly) are most seriously affected.”

Job One: Helping clients keep emotions in check

Uninformed emotional selloffs should be “avoided at all costs,” noted Dr. Hedberg. “While IMCRA makes no claims to be an international financial advising organization, our general advice is to avoid stampeding out of certain holdings unless careful research proves that the organization in which stock is held is primarily supported by Chinese labor in areas like Wuhan, which are unlikely to recover rapidly.”

Patrick said that when pandemics come under control, markets historically correct. “I’m hoping that’s true this time as well.” In terms of predicting a recession or further market adjustment, Dr. Hedberg said the most accurate assessment will come from “monitoring the global impact of COVID-19 as we head toward springtime in the northern hemisphere and the likely decrease in the spread of the disease late this month and on into April.”
 

Common sense rules the day

Our experts agreed we should abide by the common sense (not bunker) approach to taking care of ourselves and our loved ones:

1) Refrain as much as possible from crowded environments where many people are breathing and re-breathing the same air.

2) Use gloves in public whenever possible.

3) Cough and sneeze into your elbow.

4) Use face masks in public whenever possible.

5) Increase your consumption of vitamin C through citrus fruits.

6) Avoid physiologic stress situations such as going out into the cold inappropriately dressed.

7) If you exhibit symptoms, do not just wander into an emergency room or your doctor’s office till you call.

Conclusion

If you want to give up and convince yourself that the world’s coming to an end, go ahead. Just don’t drag the rest of us down with you. For all of our faults, the U.S. has always been a nation of fighters. We’re generous in times of need. We adapt to change faster than most other large countries. We don’t let anyone, or anything push us around.

We’ll get through this crisis--and all the ones that follow.

# Covid-19 #stock market  #Tom Hedberg #IMCRA #Josh Patrick #Sustainable Business

I’m Not Scared; I’m Pissed

The events of the past two weeks reminded me of a story.

One day last fall I went in for my annual physical. The longtime family doctor we loved had recently retired. He sold his practice to a huge medical conglomerate. Let’s call it Medical, Inc. As you can imagine, the level of care and time spent with patients is quite a bit less at Medical, Inc. than it is at a small family practice. You’re no longer a person; you’re just a patient DOB and a case number.

Long story short, a very inexperienced technician botched my standard electrocardiogram test (not once but twice). Her errors caused in an apparent “blip” on my EKG chart, which panicked my new 30-something doctor into thinking I had a heart arrhythmia. Again, he didn’t know me very well.

Next thing you know, the door to the examining room is locked. I’m forced to swallow aspirin tablets. Local cops and EMTs are rushing me into an ambulance while a small crowd of onlookers in the parking lot is trying to see who the poor sap in the gurney is. Pretty humiliating.

Does any of this sound familiar?

As some of you know, I’m a national class triathlete and distance runner in my age group. I have no history of heart disease or cardiovascular illness. My ticker’s just fine and I had just done a hilly 25-mile bike ride that morning before coming in for my physical.

Didn’t matter.

The more I pleaded my case, the more belligerent the emergency workers got: “Mr. Berkowitz. Do you understand what’s happening? If you don’t get in the ambulance right now, we’re going to have to sedate you.”

Finally, it hit me: Holy crap. I’m in the system and I can’t get out!

“Okay, fine. I’ll play along” I told myself. ”I can’t believe this is happening to me,” I thought as we whizzed down a major state highway, blowing through red lights to get to the hospital emergency room.  

I tried not to think about my half-eaten bagel, briefcase and computer still sitting in my car outside the medical center. I tried not to worry about my wife working out of town that week or my teenage son who’d be expecting me to pick him up at school in an hour. I wasn’t allowed to call anyone.

To be honest, I was mostly panicking about the big fat bill I was likely to get for the unexpected ambulance ride. I tried not to think about all the client meetings that would have to be cancelled that die (and the lost revenue).

You can’t fight the riptide

I’ve learned one thing from all those rough-water ocean swims--you can’t fight the riptide. You have to let the riptide take you where it wants to go and trust that it will eventually deposit you onshore. You might end up half a mile down the beach from where you started; but at least you’ll be on dry land none the worse for the wear.

Same goes for the Covid-19 virus and all the residual panic it has triggered. I know the virus is for real. I know there’s no known cure. I know our government and disease control experts F’d up their chance to do early testing and detection. I know the media and financial markets are pouring more gasoline on the panic fire. But, we’ll get through this crisis just like we got through the Global Financial Crisis, 9/11, Y2K, AIDS, SARS, Ebola and every other catastrophe we’ve faced in recent decades. These Black Swan crises seem to come every 10 years or so, and we’ll surely have another one before the end of this decade.

Here's the thing.

As long as human beings have the will to live and as long as businesses want to make money, we’ll get back to some semblance of normalcy in our lives sooner rather than later. You can’t fight those natural forces any more than you can hold back the ocean. You have to relax, go with the flow and learn to adapt.

In my next post, I’ll share some really great insights about disaster recovery and resilience from my friends Dr. Tom Hedberg of the International Medical Crisis Response Alliance (IMCRA) and Josh Patrick, founder of Stage2 Partners and host of the Sustainable Business podcast.

Back to my ordeal

After 36 frustrating hours in the hospital emergency room, I was finally whisked to a comfy private room and told to rest up for my all-important “treadmill test.” Having completed 20 marathons, 50 triathlons and eight 24-hour running relays, I wasn’t too concerned about walking 20 minutes on a treadmill. But when you have dozens of people checking your vital signs every 15 minutes with concerned looks on their faces and when they keep asking are you sure you’re up to this, you start to doubt yourself and wonder if maybe there really is something wrong with you.

Own your fears

Same thing happens when you’re glued to the news and the doomsday stock market bulletins all day long. You start to question all the foundations and stability in your life. DON’T DO IT!

Down in the bowels of the hospital, they have armies of technicians, banks of treadmills and lots of high-tech equipment to monitor your vital signs. You get your torso shaved, drink some electrolytes and start walking on the treadmill up a slight grade. Well, 45 minutes into the test, I’m hardly breaking a sweat and the pulse monitor’s barely elevated. Just like in the back of the ambulance, I cursed under my breath: “What a waste of resources!”

Finally, the head cardiologist walks in with an annoyed look on his face. He takes a look at my chart and snarls at the technicians: “Jesus Christ! What are we doing here, people? Obviously, this man’s an athlete. Get him out of here and start treating some sick people.”

Conclusion

Just remember, stocks are still up over 450 percent from the end of the global financial crisis, 11 years ago this week. Let’s take a healthy pause, get ourselves re-centered and get back to work and school ASAP so we can get on with our lives.
We’re all in this together and we’re only as strong as our weakest link. Let’s put aside our petty differences and help each other out so we can get back to normal.

That’s how we beat the terrorists after 9/11. That’s how we’ll beat Covid-19.

# Covid-19 #stock market  #Tom Hedberg #IMCRA #Josh Patrick #Sustainable Business