Millionaire Returns to Prime Time. Investors and Home Buyers Return to Markets

And you just had your budget slashed and headcount trimmed. How to sell beyond the spreadsheet.

It’s just so predictable. We’re on the verge of one of the greatest economic recoveries in a generation and Corporate America is still figuring out how to hunker down and get even leaner and meaner. At HB we’re all for spending wisely, but at some point, you can’t keep asking what’s left of your staff to run on fumes, smoke, mirrors and duct tape.

Sooner or later you’re going to have to start investing in talented people and regaining your market share with some smartly placed ad spending. If not, you’re not only going to be left alone on the launch pad; you’re going to be singed by your competitors’ after-burner fumes. Pink slips continue across all sectors of the workforce, including the media business. Conde Nast shutters Portfolio. More marketing directors report cuts in spending. IDC's marketing barometer study, which looked at b-to-b marketing trends for the first quarter of 2009, noted overall spending was down about 10 percent.

So what. Back in March on this blog, we called the statistical end to the Great Recession (aka “Great Disruption”) of 2008-2009. Since then, positive indicators keeping cropping up like dandelions in the northern climes of this country. You don’t have to look too hard to find them.

The Equity Markets: The S&P 500 is in positive territory for the year – having rebounded more than 34 percent from its 12 year low in March. The Nasdaq Composite Index is up nearly 12 percent for the year.

Housing: Pending sales of previously owned homes rose for a second month in March, while construction spending edged higher. A Federal Reserve survey of loan officers showed demand for prime mortgages rose in the first quarter for the first time since early 2007. The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in March, rose 3.2 percent as first-time buyers waded into the market to take advantage of favorable prices and mortgage rates, and an $8,000 federal tax credit.

Consumer Confidence: For the first time in five years, more Americans than not think the country is “headed in the right direction” (48% to 44%) according to the latest Associated Press/Roper GfK Roper Public Affairs poll released last week.

Popular Culture: The game show “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” – which got a nostalgic boost from “Slumdog Millionaire’s” dominance of the Oscars this spring, will return to prime time (ABC-TV) for a two-week tournament this summer, with Regis Philbin again as host. (Disclosure: my wife works in production for this show). Millionaire, which has been quietly chuggling along nicely in syndication for years, since being dropped from prime time in 2001 (with “only” 10 million viewers). At its height in the late 1990s, it had 30 million viewers. Wealth and life-altering hope is back.

Macro Economy: The U.S. economy is on track for a recovery later this year, but the pickup is likely to be sluggish and the jobless rate is likely to rise further, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. "We expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year," he said in testimony prepared for delivery to the congressional Joint Economic Committee. Bernanke said the expected recovery will only gradually gain steam and that the economy would grow below its longer-run potential for a while. "Businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring, implying that that the jobless rate could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes," he said. Go back and review your history books. That’s a green light if we’ve ever seen one! He didn’t even mention that borrowing rates, oil prices and inflation rates are at the lowest levels in a generation.

What Online Publishers Can Learn From Print Sales

Since we’re sometimes accused of being too hard on print media, we’d like to point out a smart pro-print piece in Online Publishing Insider blog the other day by Kevin Mannion of Sky Road Consulting. Again, we don’t believe in bashing print or any other media. We just don’t believe the days of a single media dominating the landscape are likely to return.

Here are some excerpts of Mannnion’s commentary: “As a rule, digital media is numbers and results-oriented, while print has traditionally relied on a more conceptual sell. Online selling is geared to the spreadsheet; print to the PowerPoint presentation. Print selling emphasizes market knowledge, educating clients --especially on the marketer side -- on buying dynamics, and telling a compelling sales story that shows clients how they will succeed. Digital selling is fast, RFP-oriented, emphasizing media technology knowledge and campaign metric optimization.

Successful digital selling requires going beyond the spreadsheet, while selling print ads needs to be more metrics-oriented than ever before. But the best online sales teams have learned from the legacy of print selling. They don't rely on hits and clicks and answering RFPs with agency spreadsheets neatly filled in with the right numbers. They know how to move beyond the RFP to market creation. And most important, they know how to sell their audience engagement story -- and sell it as a highly compelling advertiser/audience engagement story.Simple truth: Advertisers care about how you can help them see more business through their sales funnel.”

Sure, we could spend the rest of this space hedging our optimism with talk about “bear market rallies”, less-tha-stellar bank stress test results and fears of inflation. But if you want your organization to be a leader rather than a follower, you’ve got to throw out your lifelines, commit to business as usual and start gobbling up market share that your rivals are leaving on the table. If you don’t someone else will.

Final answer!

Still Optimistic About Media Recovery Despite Print Woes

Tech sector and digital advertising leading early sorties against stubborn downturn. A ‘wall of money’ is coming. Stop staring at your feet.


If your business model depends on print advertising, then the first three months of 2009 is a quarter you’ll no doubt try to bury and forget. Magazine ad pages were down 26 percent from the first quarter of 2008 and according to one report in the New York Times, newspaper ad dollars could fall as much as 30 percent in Q1 when those numbers come in.
“The latest Publishers Information Bureau (PIB) data reflect the advertising paralysis triggered by the late 2008 economic meltdown. Marketers froze ad budgets, which affected placement in first quarter magazines,” said Ellen Oppenheim, Executive Vice President & Chief Marketing Officer, Magazine Publishers of America. Advertising page declines were seen in the ad categories most affected by the slowdown: automotive (-47%), finance (-46%) and retail (-34%).” Of the more than 220 magazines tracked by PIB, only 15 posted ad page gains. Of the remaining titles, 75 percent were down significantly, posting double-digit ad page losses. Ouch.

So where are the bright spots?

Technology is one sector that’s poised for a rebound -- both in how it makes things and how it markets those things. For instance, tech companies spent only 23 percent less in print advertising this year than they did in Q1 of 2008’s. While painful, this looks pretty rosy compared to the stinginess of auto, finance and retail advertisers. And unlike those in other industries, tech company marketers are aggressively shifting their budgets to the Web and other emerging media.

“About 15 percent of our spend is on digital,” Beth Comstock, CMO of General Electric told BtoB Magazine this week. “In my mind that is not enough. One of my goals is to increase that spend.” GE is believed to be the first major advertiser to use live streaming video within a banner ad, which it introduced on 10 Web sites last year featuring CEO Jeff Immelt.

Overall, Internet advertising totaled $23.4 billion in 2008, up nearly 11 percent over 2007 according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers. The IAB’s March Internet Advertising Report showed digital video revenue more than doubling in 2008 to $734 million. One driver of this growth, said IAB’s Jeremy Fain, is that marketers can now take advantage of video without even having video assets. They’re starting to create Web-specific video content instead of repurposing it, and increasingly, they’re including clickable “hot spots” within the video for deeper exploration by the viewer.

Expect to see more video from B2B marketers, particularly from companies with medium to long range sales cycles. Intel CEO, Paul Otellinie said recently that PC sales have reached bottom and he forecasts moderate growth. Intel also said consumer demand remained relatively stronger than corporate demand and demand in US and China is recovering more than it is in Europe, Japan and emerging markets. One area of the computer business that has been relatively strong has been sales of low-cost Internet machines the industry calls mini-notebooks or netbooks. By and large, these devices are being marketed to supplement, not replace, units already on the desktops and travel bags of personal and business users.

Another positive indicator is the health of tech-oriented stock indices, which are in positive territory for the year. Yes we said positive. While the Dow is down more than 10 percent for the year and the S&P 500 down almost eight percent, the Nasdaq Composite is up two percent for the year and the Nasdaq 100 is up more than eight percent. That’s right, up.

Last week, David Resler, a Nomura Securities analyst told the Wall Street Journal: “The data we got today fit into the idea that companies are slashing production at a breakneck rate and that's paring inventories pretty aggressively. Once those inventories are depleted, it doesn't take much to start spurring a little demand," One promising sign last week was a dip in the inventories-to-sales ratio. That is where the signs of recovery or rebound will show up first."
Recessions Spur Innovation

“Recessions have always been incubators for innovation and personal initiative,” wrote Forbes columnist, Richard C. Morais, this week. He points to The Kaufman Foundation’s entrepreneurial activity index, up 15 percent from two years earlier and the fact that 60 percent of recently laid-off workers are considering changing industries or careers – about twice the normal rate.

As Morais’ colleague, Ken Fisher, admonished: “Investors refuse to think a few years out to the resurgence of the economy because they’re busy staring at their feet. This huge bear market has presented huge opportunities. Beyond simple cheapness, we’re on the cusp of the biggest global monetary and fiscal stimulus relative to the world’s GDP in history. There is a wall of money coming. And then a boom!”

Or as comedienne, Lily Tomlin once quipped: “No matter how cynical you get, it is impossible to keep up.”

Recession Petering Out? (Part 2)

Readers express cautious optimism laden with caveats.


Last week’s post: “Recession Running Out of Steam?” seemed to hit a nerve with many of you. While no one actually called us crazy, feedback fell generally fell between “not getting worse” and “cautious optimism with lots of caveats.” Mike, who runs a small regional law firm in the Southeast, was pretty representative of our readers:

“Hank, I like your optimism. In certain sectors and regions, the recession/depression will bottom by the end of this year. In others, like credit card debt, commercial real estate and commercial debt and vacation home and high end housing ($500K+) (no realistic financing), I think we are a long way from bottom.

Much depends on how the world reacts to whatever happens with GM, some recovery in international activity (China, Panama Canal, etc.) and some private money coming back into the credit markets. The banks will not get anybody out of this mess and they never have been a part of any solution.”

Whether or not you really do feel more optimistic right now, it’s important continue projecting an upbeat attitude within your organization and when dealing with clients, customers and investors. Here’s why. Winners like to associate with winners. People naturally gravitate to companies and leaders who seem to have things going in the right direction and they’re more likely to stay in contact with you and make referrals if they think there’s going to be a positive “rub off” effect by associating with you.

Here’s are some more upbeat factoids you can use in your sales scripts and Powerpoint presentations:
• The percentage of Americans who think this country is headed in the right direction just hit 39% up from 15% when Obama took office (Source: NYT/CBS News poll).

• 20% of Americans now think the economy is getting better -- up from 7% who thought so in mid January (Source: NYT/CBS News poll).

• The equity markets finished five consecutive weeks of gains. The 25% surge in the S&P 500, for instance, was its best performance over that span since 1938.

• The Index of Volatility (VIX) on the Chicago Options Exchange reached to its lowest close since late September, just ahead of Wall Street's meltdown. That means financial markets are stabilizing and hopefully moving back to fundamentals over fear.

• We’re starting to see signs of life in the credit markets: The 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 4.61% -- believed to be the lowest level on record.

• Thomson Reuters said businesses with better credit ratings issued $200 billion of debt in the first quarter of 2009, up from $188 last year.

• The London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), which tracks short-term/overnight borrowing costs between banks, fell to 1.16%, down from 1.27% last month and from 4.8% a year ago. The next to nothing rates banks are charging are among the lowest levels ever recorded.

• The U.S. Federal Reserve said consumer borrowing on credit cards dropped last month at an annualized rate of $7.8 billion (9.7%), the sharpest drop since the Fed began keeping records in 1968.

How does this help me?

On one hand, high levels of consumer saving, means folks are still pretty fiscally constipated. They're reluctant to open their wallets to increase spending as employers cut millions of jobs and and reduce pay and benefits for those still hanging on to their jobs. But this reluctance to spend also means consumers are saving more than they have in decades. That’s not great if you’re in retail and consumer staples, but it’s actually a good sign if you market financial services, electronics, autos, high-end appliances, professional services and other goods and services with a long term sales cycle or purchase consideration phase. In other words, advertising’s going to matter more than it has in a long time as both an awareness builder and decision influencer.

Both consumers and businesses are doing more homework than ever before they commit to a purchase decision. You better be out there – and you better be out there with a compelling story to tell.

How top agencies are helping clients tell stories

“We live in a time of extraordinary change—change that will be amplified and accelerated by the recession, ushering in perhaps a new age of business transformation,” said John Favalo, managing partner-group B2B at Eric Mower & Associates, the #2 midsize agency in 2008 according to BtoB magazine’s Top Agency rankings

“Business models, marketing and communications will transform, and successful agencies will be instrumental in helping clients through the dramatic changes.” Eric Mower also had its best year on record last year, increasing its total agency revenue by 30% and winning major new clients such as GE Energy.

Favalo said one of the most important things an agency can do to succeed during these challenging times is deliver relevant, personal solutions to clients, based on their unique needs. “We make business-to-business person-to-person,” he said. For example, the agency developed an online application called “Solutions Advisor” for Motorola's Enterprise Mobility unit. The tool serves up custom solutions for clients and prospects based on their information needs.

Agencies of all sizes say they are expanding their social media and video practices to keep up with client demand.

“Our work in social media is increasingly essential to the needs of our clients,” said Tom Stein, president-CEO of Stein Rogan+Partners, winner of BoB’s small the small agency category. “We see some very interesting vectors between search marketing, social media and more traditional media such as print, broadcast and online.”

For example, Stein Rogan created a social community of school district administrators for client SchoolWires, a provider of communications technology. Called “Share,” it enables users to share templates, forms, reviews and other user-generated content.

So whether or not you’re convinced the recession has hit bottom, it’s time to start behaving as though the recovery has started. Now is the time to crank up your marketing, R&D and staffing so you’re locked and loaded when two years of pent up spending and decision-making finally lets loose. It’s going to be a time of dramatic change with unprecedented opportunities for those who have been making – not struggling to follow -- the new rules of the marketplace.

Recession Running Out of Steam

When will decision-making freeze start to thaw?

Remember back in late 2007 when you got that disturbing memo from the U.S. Department of Commerce announcing plans to kick-off the next great global recession? Of course not. So what makes you think you’re going to be notified when this painful economic downturn finally ends? Trust me, you’re not.

By the time you get the “all clear” signal and spread the good news to your colleagues, it’ll be too late. Your competitors -- who smartly put new products and services into the pipeline during the depths of the downturn – will have passed you by. Their salespeople will have a leg up on yours, with a much better story to tell potential customers. And since they didn’t can all their experienced (i.e. more expensive) people and slash their marketing budgets as severely as you did during the “panic,” they’re taking away big chunks of your market share and mindshare every day. Good luck getting that back …..It’ll only take a few years.

Granted, we’ve got a long way to go. As I write this, the U.S. Labor Department is announcing 663,000 more U.S. jobs vaporized in March. That’s pushing the official unemployment rate to 8.5 percent, its highest level in 25 years. But, in this hyper-speed global economic climate, you’ve got to have new products, services and people at the ready to support them in advance when pent up demand for your goods is finally unleashed. And this is going to be one heck of a release.

Not convinced we’re on the road to recovery. Read on (or go jump off a ledge).
1. Economists and Wall Street analysts (egged on by the media) have successfully predicted 15 of the last three recessions. They have the same lousy battering average predicting recoveries and no bona fide “expert” has stepped up to give the green light on this recovery yet. So I like our chances.

2. The labor market historically lags the stock market and other economic indicators by six to 12 months. Even today’s depressing news about the job market was largely discounted by investors as the grim job loss numbers, albeit painful, were in line with what analysts and investors expected. The market actually went up again today and continued its four-week rally in which it has gained 21 percent– its best four-week advance since July 1938.

READER NOTE: I recommend Barton Biggs’ tome: “Wealth, War and Wisdom” (Wiley & Sons, 2008) for a great perspective on the stock market’s ability to forecast global economic conditions during the 1930s and 1940s. The parallels are striking between today’s climate and that of the Great Depression and World War II. It’s a scary, but interesting read (Disclosure: we have no financial interest in sales or promotion of Mr. Biggs’ book).

3. Manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management said its March report index rose 36.3, from 35.8 a month ago. New factory orders increased 8.1 percent and General Motors isn’t going to be allowed to make cars anymore unless it starts making them affordable, reliable and environmentally sound.

4. Housing. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of pending homes rose a seasonally adjusted 2.1 percent in February from a month earlier, bolstered by double-digit increases in the Northeast and Midwest. The index of pending-home sales — which encompasses deals that have signed contracts but have not closed — bounced off a record low. The group’s index of affordability rose to a record as home prices continued to slide and mortgage rates declined to a microscopic 4.61 percent.

5. Huge cash on the sidelines. The stock market is rallying at a time when four out of five institutions and affluent individual investors are planning to switch advisors. “It’s an amazing time with huge upside potential for everyone, including financial advisors,” notes HB client, John Bowen, founder of CEG Worldwide, LLC the nation’s leading coaching, research and advisory firm for wealth management professionals. “This is not a recession or The Great Depression again. It’s The Great Disruption,” says Bowen. The rules of the game are changing fast and will never go back to where we were before. Despite massive erosion of investor wealth over the past 12 months, John’s firm and his clients are actually having one of their best years ever.

6. Broad-based rally. On most positive trading days the Russell 2000 has outgained the S&P500, which has outpaced the Dow Jones index. Companies of all size, industries and market caps are starting to rebound.

7. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) might finally change the rules on "mark to market" ccounting so bank assets will be measured by their cash flow, not the last trade. Not only is this a healthy dose of pragmatism but it could dramatically impact bank financial statements, valuations and profitability.

8. Labor shortage. That’s right, we said shortage. Even with unemployment rising, some companies now realize they may have cut back their payrolls too aggressively. Duh! Workers who survived the cuts are doing at least twice the work they did before for the same pay or less. They’re burned-out, paranoid, dispirited, and planning their exit strategies, not thinking about company growth.


A neighbor of mine runs an online lead generation company and customer acquisition service. He said some of his clients’ sales reps are taking days, even weeks, to respond to even high-priority leads. They simply don’t have enough manpower to handle demand. He said one of his clients in the mortgage finance is begging her boss to hire back at least 80 of the loan officers they let go in 2008 to handle the workload.

9. Some of the more innovative and adaptable sectors of the advertising industry are still growing at impressive rates. For instance, Internet advertising rose in 2008, according to a report released earlier this week by the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers. Internet advertising in the United States grew to $23.4 billion in 2008, an increase of 10.6 percent from 2007, according to the Internet Advertising Revenue Report from the Interactive Advertising Bureau, a trade group representing online advertisers. That was the only category of advertising spending that grew in 2008 other than cable television, which rose 7.8 percent, according to Nielsen figures supplied for the report.

10. Weather. While our hearts go out to those in the flood-ravaged upper Midwest, spring has come to the Northeast, where let’s face it, a great deal of major companies and investment firms reside. There’s always a feeling of accomplishment in these parts that you’ve survived another winter and the onset of spring make everyone feel better and more optimistic. And for many home owners in the northeast, heating oil prices (our biggest worry nine months ago…HA!) ended up being only half as high as what we were dreading as recently as last summer.

11. Hero redemption. Tiger Woods is back on the pro golf tour and Lance Armstrong is cycling again. I don’t play golf, but a great number of corporate decision-makers still do and more than a few are biking and triathloning. After surviving cancer, drug allegations and now a broken collar-bone, Lance will some how manage to get himself into contention for an unprecedented 8th win at the Tour de France, the world’s toughest athletic event. Meanwhile, Tiger won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in typically dramatic last-hole fashion, his first competition after a year-long injury layoff. TV ratings were through the roof and that’s yet another sign for the corner office-set that things may be finally returning to normal in the world.

12. Even lawyers are taking a hit. The days of fat retainers, exorbitant hourly rates and paying first year associates more than the President of the United States makes, may be coming to an end. Law firms may have to start charging clients on a fixed-fee project basis, like every other professional service firm does. Leading law firms have historically avoided mass layoffs, concerned that their reputations would take a hit. But some have been putting those inhibitions aside. The Law Shucks blog now has a “layoff tracker,” and it is pretty telling. Top firms are rapidly thinning their ranks, and several — including Heller Ehrman, a venerable 500-plus-lawyer firm founded in 1890 — have closed. While not a lawyer basher by nature, having law firms align their fees and associate compensation with the rest of us will make everyone’s goods and services a little more affordable.

13. Perspective. Whether or not you believe the worst of this crisis is over, we may finally be taking a healthier approach to work-life balance in this country. “Today’s average business person exists in a perpetual state of exhaustion and stress that is born out of feeling that they are burdened by more responsibilities to meet than they have time and energy to devote to doing so,” said Chuck Peck, CEO of Cape Coral, Florida-based Wealth Intelligence Network. “They work, work, work, yet feel they are merely chasing their own tails. They never seem to be able to meet all the obligations of life without neglecting their commitments to themselves, their relationships, and their families, and vice versa.” The key, says Peck, is to keep moving. “An object at rest stays at rest; an object in motion stays in motion. Always stay in motion.”

Words to live by.

So let’s get back to work. Hire good people to help us and treat them right. Market the heck out of what we have to offer and let’s start making money again.

You Have This Window of Opportunity Called a Crisis. Better Move Fast

Do you have the right people around you now? Chances are you don’t.

“When you have that window of opportunity called a crisis, move as quickly as you can, get as much done as you can. There’s a momentum for change that’s very compelling,” Anne Mulcahy, Xerox Chairwoman and CEO told the New York Times Sunday.

Rupert Murdoch, head of another global behemoth that still considers itself nimble, seems to agree: “The world is changing very fast. Big will not beat small anymore. It will be the fast beating the slow.”

“Adaptability and flexibility. We have to change all the time,” continues Mulcahy. “The people who really do the best are those who actually sense it, enjoy it almost, the lack of definition around their roles and what they can contribute.”

Sounds great, Anne. That’s the entrepreneurial spirit that Xerox and many other great American companies were built upon. But, how do you train HR departments and company recruiters – traditionally the champions of internal process -- to find good people who relish “the lack of definition around their roles and contribution?” Anyone? Anyone at all?

That’s right. Most can’t do it because they have to fill “slots” and “silos” that were budgeted under the company’s legacy business model. They want people who can “fit in” to the pre-existing “culture.” That’s HR speak for: Stay in your box. Don’t look outside your box or else you’ll have a pink slip in your box.
Says Mulcahy: “We’ve learned a lot about identifying failure quickly. As much as it’s sometimes hard to make choices about where you invest, it’s equally hard to make choices about where you don’t invest and what you eliminate.”

Not all failures are equal, cautions William Davidow, of venture capital firm, Mohr Davidow Ventures.

A company (or project) might fail because its timing was bad or because the entrepreneur was a poor manager. Davidow says that despite a recent Harvard Business School survey to the contrary he expects a higher follow-on success rate for failed entrepreneurs than first-timers, and a serial entrepreneur will find it easier than a first-timer to get in the door to meet him. “I would want to know why the least deal failed and what the person learned from it.”

The same thinking should be applied to managers and top brass of media, information and technology companies. To find the leaders who are going to lead you out of this financial (and decision-making) deep freeze we’re in, you’ve got to seek out those who’ve made a few stumbles along the way….It’s more about what they learned than how well they could (or couldn’t) cover up those mistakes and re-assign blame.

Mulcahy is a rarity among Fortune 500 CEOs who has run a human resource department. She acknowledges that most HR departments don’t get useful and honest feedback from employees and they tend to get hung up on fairness above all else.

“Not everybody is created equal,” she says, “and it’s equally important for companies to identify high potentials, accelerate their development and pay them more. I think companies tend to get confused with processes they think are fairest and that is not what companies need.”

Amen to that.

Virtual Events Are Enhancing, Not Replacing, Live Events

Savvy marketers are fine-tuning event ROI despite lousy economy and corporate travel restrictions.

Even in today’s crappy economic climate, live events are a cost-effective marketing and business building strategy. According to the Center for Exhibition Industry Research, companies spend five times as much ($1,039 vs. $215) to identify and contact a prospect in the field as they do to meet face-to-face at a trade show.

As BtoB's Ellis Booker quipped in his latest Op Ed piece , businesspeople have a biological need to be around other business people in order to do business. “Make no mistake, events aren’t going away – even in today’s dismal economy. In-person gatherings are an essential step for moving business relationships and commerce along, not to mention educating audiences and collecting qualified leads. “
Booker is right. Business people are still going to be networking and shaking hands. They’re just going to be using technology more often, before, during and after events to open doors, close the deal and measure results.

Pre-event exhibitor scouting and due diligence can be done more effectively online. Many aspects of product demos can be done online. And hybrid events – in which live events broadcast to a larger audience at multiple locations off-site – can expose your event to attendees who never would have attended otherwise.
So while booth space, attendance and sponsorship may be down this year, the quality of attendees will be up (a lot more decision-makers and a lot fewer lackeys). That means fewer tire-kicker business cards to wade through if you’re an exhibitor and fewer inexperienced company reps to get in our way if you’re a buyer seeking a solution. Either way, that spells ROI and a lot fewer cancelled flights, bad meals and lost luggage.

Teaching Your In-Box Who’s Boss

Stop wasting time, eliminate guilt and get more done. Advice from the experts.
TO: Readers
FROM: Hank B
RE: E-mail management

FYI: Farhad Manjoo had an interesting take in yesterday’s New York Times about the age-old problem of handling (or not feeling guilty about ignoring) the deluge of daily e-mail that’s dominating our work and personal lives these days. Borrowing heavily from productivity gurus Merlin Mann and David Allen, Manjoo offered some good tips for making your online life less stressful and more productive. Next week, I’ll offer up some snarky responses to folks who call you on the phone (or stop you in the hall) to say: “Hey, did you get my e-mail?”

Expert suggestions for better e-mail mojo:
• Limit Your Time With E-Mail. Turn off all auto-notifications that alert you to incoming mail, and if you must check mail while you’re on the go, keep it to a minimum.
• Clear Your In-Box. Set aside an hour or two to respond to every important message that has dogged you in the last couple months (anything older than that is too ancient to bother with).
• Archive It. Most e-mail messages require no action or response on your part. Skim through these missives (or leave them unread), then shoot them into your archive and forget them.
• Respond. If the e-mail message calls for an easy answer, send it. David Allen, author of Getting Things Done has a rule of thumb that comes in handy here: If responding is going to take two minutes or less, you’re better off doing it now than procrastinating.
• Forward It. If the message is better handled by someone else — your boss, your sister, anyone but you — send it off to that person, then archive it.
• Hold It For Later. OK. Some e-mail messages demand complicated answers that require some thought. Other messages simply require information (or permission/approval) not yet available. Don’t pull the trigger finger too soon. Let it sit until you get the ammunition you need.

Amen. It’s your inbox and no one else’s. You own it. You decide where, when and how to respond to all this missives demanding your attention. Thanks Farhad.

Recessions Can Spawn the Best Ideas

Too bad the wrong folks are getting bailed out (and axed). Reforecast this!

Thomas Friedman really nailed it in his recent New York Times Op-Ed piece “Start Up the Risk-Takers.”

Like Friedman, I bet you're disgusted that the nation’s largest “wealth destroying machines” (GM, Chrysler, AIG, Citigroup, etc.) are strong-arming taxpayers into bailouts while deserving early-stage companies (with huge job creation potential) can’t get funding. Why? Because the old guard claims their funerals will cost us more than keeping them on life support will.

They keep selling it. We’re not buying it. And hopefully Washington isn’t either.

“That is not how we got rich as a country, and it’s not how we’ll get out of the crisis,” notes Friedman. “Some of our best companies, such as Intel, were started in recessions, when necessity makes innovators even more inventive and risk-takers more daring.”

While you don’t normally associate “inventiveness” and “risk-taking” with old line manufacturing and financial services companies, we media types think of ourselves as a little more daring. We like to hang with the technology stars at big conferences. We "whiteboard it" out of the box. But unlike our technology brethren, who really have the stones to reinvent their business models as market conditions change, we can’t quite walk the walk after talking the talk.

B2B media leaders talk about innovation, but tend to skulk back to what they know best when the chips are down. That means protecting their longstanding investments in print media, direct mail and face to face events – and the people behind them – while slashing resources devoted to new media and cross-media platforms. That’s a cowardly approach that will come back to haunt many of you when the economy rebounds.

Tech companies know that now is the time to double down on R&D so you’re poised for growth when conditions improve. Unfortunately, too many B2B media leaders are bailing out version 1.0 these days, when they should be focusing on version 3.0. This simply gets you from one quarter to the next, where you'll spend half your time reforecasting instead of generating new business.

Print, direct mail and face-to-face events still deserve a seat at the table, but they no longer drive innovation, profit margins or enterprise value. And never will again.

As Friedman advises: “Let’s make sure all the losers clamoring for help don’t drown out the potential winners who could lift us out of this.” Words to live by whether you’re selling cars, banking services, insurance policies or advertising space. It’s all about measurable ROI.

The Upside of Down Trade Show Attendance

Intimacy and ROI could improve

A recent survey from industry trade group Meeting Professionals International (MPI) and American Express said seven percent of business meetings scheduled for 2009 have already been cancelled and attendance will be down about 12 percent for meetings and conferences that remain on the calendar. Obviously the weak economy has companies dramatically cutting back on travel, entertainment and professional education budgets. Many organizations “don’t want to look like they are spending money foolishly at a time when people are losing their jobs,” said Jack Riepe, a spokesman for the Association of Corporate Travel Executives (ACTE) in a recent NY Times interview. ACTE said 71 percent of its members expect to spend less on travel this year and increase their reliance on teleconferences and Webinars. So where’s the silver lining I alluded to?

First, 2009 may prove to be the year of the Web events, as event planners, out of necessity, are going to have to start finding time-efficient low-cost ways to bring their great content and networking opportunities to attendees can’t afford to be out of the office for days at a time. They also might learn that Web events are a great, low-risk way to test out a new conference idea or seminar track before you go to the expense of rolling it out in the real-world.

Even for in-person events, attendees and exhibitors may find better show experiences this year despite diminished attendance. First, you’re in better position to negotiate deals on airfare, lodging, restaurants, rental cars, etc. which should keep the bean counters back at the home office happy. Also, since attendance is down, you’ll have an easier time getting access to keynote speakers and presenters. At the exhibit hall, you won’t have to wait as long to see demos of products and services you really want to “tire-kick.” And since exhibitors can’t afford to send the usual phalanx of support staff and “demo dollies,” you’re more likely to interact with a highly knowledgeable member of the product development or client support team at the vendor’s booth. If you’re an exhibitor, lower attendance doesn’t necessarily mean lower ROI. With reduced travel budgets, companies can only afford to send their key decision-makers to events, so you’ll have a higher likelihood of more meaningful conversations and your percentage of qualified leads – not simply business cards collected -- should go way up.

Let’s face it. We’re all eating our share of humble pie these days. But the extra calories won’t show up on the innovators who stay lean and mean and learn to co-exist with the Web.

Think Before You Slash That Marketing Budget

A downturn opens the door to gain market share and out-innovate your competitors. Recommended reading

By now, you’ve probably been exposed to hundreds of articles and blog posts in the media trades justifying the need to keep the marketing faucet on at all times – no matter how painful. But in the current issue of Harvard Business Review, of all places, Boston Consulting Group partners David Rhodes and Daniel Stelter, argue convincingly that “companies that injudiciously slash marketing spending often find that they later must spend far more than they saved in order to recover.” (See Seize Advantage in a Downturn).

Rhodes and Stelter look at marketing as part of an overall “recession checklist.” They patiently demonstrate that many companies fail to see opportunities hidden in economic downturns. But, before jumping in with both feet, you first need to a thorough, but rapid assessment of your own vulnerabilities and then move decisively to minimize them. More

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