Thursday, October 28, 2021

Are We in a Bubble?

Last week’s post about the record high “Quit Rate” of American workers generated a fair amount of feedback. Some said “it’s about time” that workers finally gained some leverage over greedy employers, but the majority questioned the wisdom of workers flexing their bargaining muscles at this stage of the economic cycle. They said it was irrational exuberance at best, foolhardy at worst, particularly for younger workers who haven’t been through a full economic cycle before.

Speaking of irrational exuberance, several of our clients have been interviewed in the national media

about whether our economy and financial markets are heading into bubble territory.

Dr. Guy Baker, CFP, Ph.D founder of Wealth Teams Alliance (Irvine, CA) said a bubble occurs whenever one sector of the economy is doing much better than would be expected if it were not for a few specific factors in play. “The dot-com boom became hyperextended because more and more dollars were flowing into companies that had no viable economic record,” added Baker a member of the Forbes 250 Top Financial Security Professionals List and author of The Great Wealth ErosionManage Markets, Not Stocks and Investment Alchemy. “The gold rush mentality drove the urgency to not lose out. As a result, the value of Internet companies soared and became a bubble,” observed Baker. “When the bubble popped, only the strong survived. When we look at bubble thinking today, the only real bubble driven by economics is cryptocurrency,” he added.

Regulatory bubble

While some readers also pointed to meme stocks like GameStop, non-fungible tokens and the boom in SPACs, Baker said he is more worried about
another type of bubble that most folks aren’t paying attention to – the government regulation bubble. “We saw this in 2009-2010 when the government caused disfunction in the mortgage market,” explained Baker. “Homebuyers were able to qualify for mortgages based on nothing more than their signature and a statement of ‘fact.’ The free money came home to roost when the economy slipped, and these homeowners walked away from the houses leaving the lenders with an empty house and an inflated value,” he added.

Baker maintains that economic bubbles are part of the capitalistic system, and usually isolated to the companies affected, but regulatory bubbles are not. “They are dangerous and can cause huge damage to institutions and businesses,” he added.

So, how can investors protect themselves from speculative investments related to economic bubbles?

The best way to protect yourself is through wide diversification, advised Baker, adding that in a “well-balanced, smart portfolio” most of the companies that would be “disasters when a bubble burst” will not be included in the mix. He prefers ETFs and mutual funds that are well diversified. “It’s important not to buy funds that do the same thing,” said Baker. “Also, stay away from funds that say one thing and do another. Low turnover is a key metric to watch. Low turnover means the portfolio managers are making good choices and sticking with them. High turnover suggests the fund is chasing yield.”

Five stages of an economic bubble

In his landmark book Stabilizing an Unstable Economy (1986), economist Hyman Minsky identified five stages in a typical 
credit cycle which follow the typical stages of an economic bubble:

1. Displacement. Investors get enamored by new paradigm, such as an innovative new technology or interest rates that are historically low.

2. Boom. The asset in question attracts widespread media coverage. Fear of missing out (FOMO) on what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity spurs more speculation, drawing an increasing number of investors and traders into the fold.


3. Euphoria.
Caution is thrown to the wind, as asset prices skyrocket. Valuations reach extreme levels during this phase as new valuation measures and metrics are touted to justify the relentless rise. The "greater fool" theory plays out—the idea that no matter how prices go, there will always be a market of buyers willing to pay more.

4. Profit-Taking. Believing the bubble is about to burst, the smart money starts selling positions and taking profits. But estimating the exact time when a bubble is due to collapse can be a difficult exercise.

5. Panic. It only takes a relatively minor event to prick a bubble, but once it is pricked, the bubble cannot b reinflated. In the panic stage, asset prices reverse course and descend as rapidly as they had ascended. Investors and speculators, faced with margin calls and plunging values of their holdings, now want to liquidate at any price. As supply overwhelms demand, asset prices slide sharply. Think the early days of COVID or the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

Most think we’re somewhere between Euphoria and Profit-Taking. But, as economist John Maynard Keynes famously said: "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

 

What’s your take? I’d like to hear from you.

 

Conclusion

 

As billionaire value investor, Seth Klarman likes to say: “At the root of all financial bubbles is a good idea carried to excess.” Or as Warren Buffett always says: “Be fearful when people are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful.” I’m not sure whether we’re in a bubble or not, but like most things in life, the truth usually lies somewhere between the extremes.


#economicbubble, #irrationalexuberance, #investing, #diversification

Monday, October 18, 2021

I Quit

With all the talk about inflation, stagflation, higher taxes and lack of affordable housing, I couldn’t help noticing one contrary statistic amid the sea of pessimism—the national “quit rate” is at an all-time high. The quit rate is the number of workers who voluntarily leave their jobs as opposed to being terminated, downsized or furloughed.


According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last week, 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in the most recent month measured. That means nearly 3% of the workforce—in in 33 workers—left their jobs voluntarily -- the highest level ever reported by the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey series. In fact, nearly 20 million U.S. workers have voluntarily resigned from their jobs since the spring, according to the latest federal data

What’s giving workers the confidence to tell their bosses to “take this job and shove it” when so many economic storm clouds seem to be on the horizon?

Extended unemployment insurance, insufficient child-care options, eviction moratoriums and vaccine mandates area playing a role. But I suspect there’s something else at play. Everyone from fast food restaurants and hotels to high tech companies and accounting firms complains they can’t find enough workers to fill their open job positions—even with ever-rising wages.

Hmm.

As The Wall Street Journal reported last week, LinkedIn has seen a 20% jump in searches related to quitting compared with a year earlier. Hashtags such as #greatresignation, #newjob, #jobhunt and #burnout have accrued tens of thousands of followers on LinkedIn. A March analysis by Gallup found that nearly half (48%) of the U.S. working population surveyed was actively job searching or watching for opportunities. The survey included workers in every job category, from hourly consumer-facing roles to high-paid professional positions, who were job hunting at roughly the same rates.

But, it that enough to explain what economists call are calling the “Great Resignation”?

As Yahoo News columnist, Mike Bebernes, reported last weekend, many workers are simply burned-out. He believes the high quit rates in customer-facing jobs and health care suggest that people in these fields have become exhausted after 18 months of extra hours, confrontations over COVID mitigation rules and fear of catching the virus. Meanwhile, wrote Bebernes, “white-collar workers, are eager to maintain some of the elements of pandemic-era work that benefitted them — like remote work and flexible hours — and willing to move on as their employers transition back to the office.”

But I also think we’re seeing the residual effects of a consumer savings glut as Americans showed uncharacteristic restraint on their spending during the darkest days of the pandemic. That massive stockpile of excess cash means they have more of a cushion to absorb a job transition or temporary leave from the workforce. When workers see the excess cash in the bank accounts and start tallying up all the money saved by not going to work -- childcare, dry-cleaning, commuting, deli lunches, etc. – staying home seems to make more and more sense.

The pandemic was like a forced sabbatical for many workers. It gave them time to do some deep soul searching about their whole relationship with work. “The human tragedy — and, in some cases, indifference from their employers — that workers have experienced over the past year and a half has led millions of people to deprioritize work in their lives,” Bebernes wrote.


“The big unanswered question about the Great Resignation is whether it’s a short-term phenomenon brought on by extreme circumstances or a more lasting shift in attitudes toward work?” Bebernes asked.

From where I sit, shift is not going to be “transitory.” Here’s a sampling of smart takes I’ve curated for you:


“We know that when human beings come into contact with death and illness in their lives, it causes them to take a step back and ask existential questions. Like, what gives me purpose and happiness in life, and does that match up with how I'm spending my [life] right now? So, in many cases, those reflections will lead to life pivots.”Anthony Klotz, psychologist in Business Insider

“People have options. And because they have options, their demands and their interests and their tolerance for things that are not aligned with their values on how they want to live their lives, they're going to leave and they're going to look for it elsewhere.”Tsedal Neeley, Harvard Business School professor, on PBS NewsHour

 “For at least two generations, workers have been on their back heels. We are now seeing a labor market that is tight, and prospects are becoming increasingly clear that it’s going to remain tight. It’s now going to be a workers’ market, and they’re empowered. I think they are starting to flex their collective muscle.” — Mark Zandi, economist, in Time

“The Great Resignation is not a mad dash away from the office; it’s the culmination of a long march toward freedom. More than a decade ago, psychologists documented a generational shift in the centrality of work in our lives. Millennials were more interested in jobs that provided leisure time and vacation time than Gen Xers and baby boomers. They were less concerned about net worth than net freedom.”Adam Grant, in Wall Street Journal

"There is no 'labor shortage.' There's a child care shortage, a living-wage shortage, a hazard pay shortage, a paid sick leave shortage, and a healthcare shortage," Robert Reich, UC Berkeley professor of public policy and former U.S. Secretary of Labor, tweeted last week. "Until these shortages are remedied, Americans won't return to work anytime soon."

What’s your take? I’d like to hear from you.

Whether you’re an employee, a business owner, a manager or a managing partner, it’s been a long time since the demand for labor has outstripped supply. Workers have never been in better position to find work that’s meaningful to them and to perform it wherever and whenever it suits them to. By 2025, nearly a quarter of the American work force (36 million workers), are expected to be remote.

What’s more, the Millennials and GenZ’ers who are replacing the 3 million retiring boomers every year are more inclined to work smarter not harder. They’re far less likely than boomers to put up with hour-long commutes, abusive bosses and co-workers and to perform demeaning office chores traditionally associated with “paying your dues.”

Conclusion

To compete for talent in today’s market, employers will have to do more to show workers what that they do matters, whether they’re flipping burgers or performing open heart surgery. It’s not just a problem you can throw money at, and since they’re not in the office, you’ll have to find better perks than a foosball table, casual Fridays and bring your pet to work day.

As with every crisis, innovation on the hiring front will eventually prevail. Just don’t make the mistake of thinking worker (or independent contractor) leverage is transitory.

 

“You better not try to stand in my way
As I'm a-walkin' out the door
Take this job and shove it
I ain't workin' here no more.”

-- Johnny Paycheck, Take this job and shove it



 

#hiring, #quitrate, #practicedevelopment

Tuesday, September 28, 2021

When Life Forces You to Slow Down

The problem with Coach K’s “Next Play” philosophy

I've never been the type to slow down and smell the roses. But after 30+ years of triathlons, marathons, tennis, kayaking, open-water swimming and coaching baseball, the wear and tear on my body finally caught up. Step 1: Shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator, labrum and biceps tendon.

The physical therapy is going pretty well, but wearing a bulky sling 24/7, especially while sleeping, is pretty uncomfortable. Worse, it’s a constant reminder that I’m sitting on the sidelines, not in the game. Not only is there a big hole in my calendar, but with no scheduled workouts or competitions to prep for, goal setting has to be reconfigured—big time—and I have to find a new outlet for all the extra energy.

At first it took four times as long to shower, shave, get dressed and eat, let alone type a simple email or blog post. I’ve gotten that down to 3x normal and am shooting for 2x normal within next two weeks. Range of motion and the number of reps improves with each physical therapy session, so I jot that incremental progress down in my training log. At least it fills in the blanks where workouts and race results normally go and fools my brain into thinking I’m still training.


More on fooling your brain in a minute.

My wife’s been incredibly patient during this time. She’s always better at handling adversity than I am, and she’s certainly not doting on me. Her philosophy is basically: Suck it up, take your meds, do your PT and get on with your life. “At times like these, you can’t worry about what you can’t do. Just be thankful for what you can do,” she reminds me before going out for a run or hitting the tennis court.

Most of you on this distribution list are competitive Type A achievers. When life forces you to slow down, it can be a shock to the system. It makes you realize the lengths we go to every day to try to squeeze in one more assignment, one more Zoom call, one more client meeting or one more hour of work into an already overstuffed schedule.

I can't tell you how many of you highly compensated professionals complain to me about “time famine” more than any other work issue. Being overscheduled may make you feel productive and valuable, but does it make you happy?

The problem with Coach K’s “Next Play” philosophy

Legendary Duke basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski, is a highly sought-after motivational speaker and business advisor. If you’ve ever watched a Duke game, you’ll hear him shouting “Next Play!” to his players throughout the game.

By that Coach K means you can’t spend your time dwelling on mistakes that you or a teammate just made. You have to shake them off and be 100% focused for the next play as your opponent brings the ball up the court.

“Next Play!” is a popular rallying cry in the business, sports and military worlds. I should know. I drank the (Gatorade-flavored) Kool-Aid for most of my adult life. But in the inevitable chase for NEXT PLAY, do we forget to celebrate our successes? Worse, do we forget to notice how much we've improved from earlier in the season? It's hard to measure progress when you're constantly obsessed about looking ahead.

 

Next time you read an obituary or visit a cemetery, tell me how many times you see the dearly departed eulogized as follows: “A wonderful and caring husband and father, who was always in the top 2% for billable hours”? Or “A generous and caring soul who always checked every item off his to-do list” or “A loving wife and grandmother who always answered every email in her inbox”? That’s right, never!

 

I don't think I'll ever adapt to a sedentary lifestyle, but I notice my concentration's been a little sharper since the surgery since I'm no longer shoehorning workouts, meetings and competitions into an already packed work and family schedule.

In many ways the surgery has forced me to forget about multitasking since it’s so much more challenging to complete even the simplest tasks of daily life. And for those of you still slaves to the billable hour business model I encourage you to read our client Kyle Walters’ recent columns in Accounting Today: The 64/4 Rule and Can You Earn $10K Per Hour? I also recommend Robb Zbierski’s book: Master Your Mind, which will teach you how to slow down your runaway brain, so you can accomplish a lot more in less time.

Conclusion

The big takeaway from Walters and Zbierski: It’s not about how many hours you put in; it's about what you put into those hours.


What’s your take? I’d like to hear from you.



#productivity, #resilience, #CoachK, #timefamine

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Busting Through Writer’s Block (and Procrastination)

There’s no magic formula or pill to take, but these (mostly) old-school techniques still work

As the famous line from Alice in Wonderland goes: “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will take you there.”

Not to be your high school English teacher, but trying to write something without an outline is like trying to build a house without blueprints. You might be able to throw up a wall or two, but sooner or later you’ll get painted into a corner or the whole structure will come tumbling down on itself. That only leads to wasted time, money and frustration.

Outlines for real-world business people

With all due respect to my superb high school English teach Mr. Hallowell (see Stop Clearing Your Throat When You Write) I hated the academic outline protocol: Roman numeral I., subtheme A. and supporting point 1. That doesn’t work for many people who aren’t in academia and I won’t subject you to it. Instead think about how you’re going to “sell” your content to your target audience. I know you know how to sell!

1. Identifying the problem. Start out be clearly stating the problem you’re trying to solve for the reader. Even better, assure them they’re not the only one facing this problem. Sharing stats from a reliable source, quotes from a recent article/broadcast clip or a client example are great ways to draw readers in and convince them why they need to read your words right now!

2. Explain what happens to the reader if they continue to ignore the problem. Life gets worse, they lose money, the leave big opportunities on the table, they have a less than satisfying life. Maybe explain why skeptics don’t want you to address this problem. You get the picture.

3. Briefly explain the solution, i.e. “there’s got to be a better way.”

4. Show the reader how much better their life will be by following you the solution. Include compelling stats or anonymous examples of clients who followed the advice and are much happier for it.

VERY IMPORTANT! Don’t give away the whole solution here. It doesn’t matter if you’re writing a short post or a feature-length book. Just give them a taste….not the whole meal. Show readers you know what you’re talking about, but if they want the full solution, they must book a discovery meeting with you to learn more. Make sure your Contact Me link is working on all of your digital points of presence and make sure it’s not too salesy.

5. Conclusion.
Summarize the argument you just made and inviting them to contact you for a more detailed conversation about the topic. Share links to related resources on your website if possible.

Your finished outline should look something like this:
1. Intro: Identify the problem
2. Find common ground. Show readers they are not alone with this problem.
3. Explain dangers of ignoring the problem.
4. Introduce the solution.
5. Show reader how much better life is with solution in place.
6. Conclusion (with calls to action).

Outline complete: Now sell the Content
Now that you’ve completed the outline, don’t start fleshing out your piece yet. First think about how you’re going to sell it. You need to think about your headline (or book title) and Key Takeaways.

Headline
Start noodling around with some catchy headlines to hook in your busy readers. I’m not suggesting you engage in click bait or search engine optimization. Just ask yourself what will make a super-busy person you’re targeting take time out of their busy day to read what you have to say.

TIP: See what the headlines you’re considering look like in the subject line of an email. Do a few test-emails to yourself or better yet, send to unsuspecting colleagues and see which one gets the most (or quickest) reaction.

Key Takeaways
What are the three key things that you’d like the reader to take away from your article, post, white paper or e-book? Many of you follow our Key Takeaways protocol at the top of your writing. Trust me, in this attention-starved mobile age, there’s no better way to make your content skim-able and worth reading (and saving).

Now that you’ve got the outline and sales pitch for your content, you’re almost ready to start fleshing it out. But first, think about how this content will fit into your overall content schedule for the weeks and months ahead. Will it be duplicative or overkill? Should it be standalone or part of a series? Should it be the intro 101 version of your expertise, or is it more of your “advanced course”?

Map out your content schedule

Just as we never recommend writing anything without an outline, we don’t recommend writing anything in a vacuum, i.e. without thinking about how it fits into your overall content cycle. Think of yourself as sharing a body of work—not a series of random one-off takes about a subject. We recommend laying out your planned topics 12 to 24 weeks in advance. You don’t have to stick to the schedule as real-world conditions make certain topics more urgent than others. But following these tips will ensure you have solid “blueprints” in place and you’ll never be up late at night staring at a blank screen wondering: “What should do I have to write about next?”

Even better, once you have your content calendar laid out in advance, it’s amazing how many nuggets of great information you’ll start accumulating weeks, if not months, before you have to write your piece. It’s like having a “rainy day fund” for your content ideas.

Conclusion

You wouldn’t have clients invest their money without a plan. You wouldn’t hire an architect to build your dream house if he or she didn’t use blue prints. So, why would you start pushing out content to your universe of followers without a plan? Familiarize yourself with the 1-7-30-4-2-1 principle. My post The Power of Content Calendars has more.

#betterwriting, #outline, #writersblock, #productivity

Monday, September 06, 2021

Clearly, We’re Being Tested


At times like these, your clients need you more than ever. Are you anti fragile?

I’m not the most devout guy in the world. But on the eve of Rosh Hashana (Jewish New Year) and the 20th anniversary of 9/11, it’s clear to me our resolved is being tested by a higher authority.

The COVID Delta variant continues to spread relentlessly. We’ve had horrific wildfires on the West Coast and record-setting flooding and continued power outages in the South and Northeast courtesy of Hurricane Ida. We finally admitted defeat in the 20-year Afghanistan conflict, the eviction moratorium has been lifted, women have been stripped of reproductive rights in Texas, inflation is resurfacing and the economy can’t get out of first gear due to a chronic shortage of workers and raw materials.

Whew!

Many of your clients (and employees) may be losing faith in the world and prone to reckless emotional decisions. And then there are there’s the Biden tax plan that’s likely to put a boa constrictor squeeze on affluent and successful people like your clients starting in 2022.

Bottom line: Your clients and team members need you more than ever.

Nietzsche famously said: "That which does not kill us makes us stronger." To that end, our client @KyleWalters (L&H CPAs) wrote a great piece in Accounting Today about becoming anti-fragile. According to Walters, there are three types of financial advisors:

1. Fragile advisors: You are fragile if you avoid disorder and disruption for fear of the mess they might make of your life. You think you are keeping safe, but really you are making yourself vulnerable to the shock that will tear everything apart.

2. Robust advisors: You are robust if you can stand up to shocks without flinching and without changing who you are.

3. Anti-fragile advisors: You are anti-fragile if shocks and disruptions make you stronger and more creative, better able to adapt to each new challenge you face.

Which one would you rather be?

First, make sure you’re communicating with clients consistently and frequently. Our annual CPA/Wealth Advisor Confidence Survey shows that firms expecting double-digit or greater growth over the next 12 months, are twice as likely as firms expecting flat growth to contact their clients multiple times per month.

During these difficult and unsettling times, why not shine the spotlight on the positive things in life?
COVID vaccines—developed in record time--have proven undeniably effective at preventing the spread of the virus. The financial markets continue to set all time highs. Those who listened to their advisors and stayed fully invested during the dark early days of COVID are up roughly 100% since mid-March 2020. And real GDP growth in the U.S. is poised to grow at a very robust 7% annualized clip in Q3. But wait, there’s more.

As bad as the California wildfires have been, drones and other advanced technology have made tremendous strides in predictive modeling which have snuffed out numerous potential fires before they started. Re: flooding and hurricanes, the Post-Katrina levee system in New Orleans held throughout Ida and at least where I live in the Northeast, utility crews have been showing up several days BEFORE major storms hit to cut down vulnerable trees and limbs.

Conclusion

Whether you’re on the way to the beach, barbecue, ballgame or synagogue this weekend, let’s take a break from the gloom and doom headlines and celebrate our progress during a time of tremendous adversity and uncertainty. Your clients need you. Your team needs you. Your family needs you. Your community needs you.

As former heavyweight boxing champ, Mike Tyson, liked to say, “everyone has a plan till they get a punch in the mouth.” We’ve taken a few to the face to be sure. It’s up to you how quickly you get off the canvas and get back into the ring.

What’s your take? I’d like to hear from you.

Sunday, August 08, 2021

Writing: The First Step for Successful Innovation

Forget apps, hacks and shortcuts. Writing takes practice, practice, practice

Last week’s post about The Key to Writing Faster provoked a lot of feedback. In fact, Jeffrey Wyant, serial entrepreneur and co-founder of Coast to Coast Fulfillment, Inc. in West Greenwich, Rhode Island submitted a great guest post that I wanted to share with you.

Guest post: JEFFREY WYANT -- Writing is all about putting one’s thinking and imagination down in a form that can be passed on to other people over time. Without writing, we’d still be living in caves. You need the thought first, but the exercise of writing your thoughts down forces you to develop the thought first and then work out the details so others can understand.

As the old saying goes: “Your thoughts are only as good as your ability to express them.” Here are two more corollaries to that rule:

  1. If you want to learn something, teach something.
  2. If you want to know about a subject, write a book about it. 

Following these corollaries forces you to clarify your thoughts, to fill in the blanks and to communicate what you know in a form that can be absorbed and acted upon by others.

Einstein’s greatest achievements did not occur in physical laboratories, but in laboratories of the mind. Did you know his renowned theory of relatively came from a “thought experiment,” (a what-if scenario) he conducted in his mind?  Then Einstein had to write it down in order to remember it and to enable others to reflect and act upon it.

Many Eureka moments happen when previously-muddled, but nagging, thoughts coalesce into a new idea, a cogent breakthrough. Some of us experience these moments in the shower. Biochemist Kary Mullins got the idea for the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) while driving through a California forest at late at night. As soon as he could, Mullins wrote down what came to him during that late-night drive so he could test and refine his theory.

Mullins’ “ideation” process led to a Nobel Prize in Chemistry for what became a crucial part of the method enabling the development of the Covid-19 vaccines and many other DNA/RNA-based medical treatments. But none of that would have happened if Mullins didn’t take the time to write down his initial thoughts.

Writer Gabriel García Márquez was struggling for years to convey what he regarded as powerful psychological and philosophical truths in a nascent novel. As with Mullins, inspiration took place in the car for Marquez while he was driving his family to a vacation destination. During the long drive, Marquez finally figured out in his mind how to portray the fictional town of Macondo and the multi-generational lives of the Buendía family. He immediately cancelled the vacation, returned home, and wrote “One Hundred Years of Solitude,” which has sold over 50 million copies in 46 languages. Márquez won the Nobel Prize in literature 1982 But that never would have happened if he hadn’t freed up his mind on a long drive and immediately written down his early thoughts!

Writing as a tool for innovation

I’m not worried about winning Nobel Prizes, but I can’t tell you how empowering it is to get all the random thoughts in my brain, written down and loosely organized and codified. Somehow writing things down make them real. I have taken some writing classes to improve the process, but the big lesson I keep getting is JUST KEEP WRITING…Write…anything. The eye-hand-mind coordination itself helps develop more neural pathways, which become stronger, faster and more resilient over time. Over time, you learn to string the disparate “monkey-mind” thoughts together into a compelling story.

I spend a lot of time in entrepreneurial circles. It’s often said that that business plans are simply dreams put forth for others to read and buy into. One of Elon Musk’s dreams is to colonize Mars. His company, SpaceX, is the path to that dream. But to go on that path Musk had to learn to read Russian books and papers on rockets. Then he had to articulate in writing how his dream could become a reality. 

We all have dreams and great ideas. But the only way to make those dreams and ideas actionable for others is to capture them in writing and then describe for others to take to make them a reality.

Conclusion

I am a firm believer in practice, practice, practice — which is why I am writing this to you. It’s good practice for me, but I hope it contains some nuggets that can add a bright spot to your day.

 
What’s your take?
Jeff and I’d like to hear from you.

#practicemanagement, #betterwriting, #ElonMusk, #SpaceX, #innovation

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

The Key to Writing Faster

My college track coach was not the nicest guy in the world, but he had a unique ability to distill complex concepts into the simplest terms. On our first day of practice, he gathered all the nervous freshmen together and barked: “Gentlemen: The key to running faster is to practice running faster. Hopefully it won’t take you four F’n years to figure that out.”

The rest of Coach’s speech had too many profanities to recite in this forum, but his bluntness and world-class motivational skills got him into the Track & Field Hall of Fame. So, we sprinted down the longest, steepest cow pastures we could find near campus. We did dozens of 100 meters sprints—AFTER “warming up” with 10 mile runs in the heat. We allowed Coach to chase us in his pickup truck (at 10-12 mph) as we sprinted up abandoned fire trails—with no shoulder to turn out on if you got tired.

The idea was to get our legs (and minds) used to turning over faster than they ever had before. That, or get run over. We thought Coach was out of his mind, but as our times began dropping and the wins piles up – 150 straight meets at one point – his approach didn’t seem so insane.

Busting through summer doldrums

As we head full steam into the summer doldrums, many of you are struggling to get your blog posts, articles, presentations, podcasts, videos and eBooks to the finish line. It’s natural to hit the mental wall during the Dog Days of summer. A week doesn’t go without someone asking me for a secret formula or quick “hack” to help them bust through writer’s block or get off the procrastination treadmill.

As far as I know, there’s no secret. You just have to practice writing faster.

Whether you use a PC, tablet, phone or legal pad to compose your thoughts, most of you can write plenty fast—and cogently. You got through years of schooling and advanced certifications. Didn’t you? You just tend to get hung up on perfection. Blogger Hannah Heath explains why you should let your first draft suck and Vaibhav Vardhan explains why your first draft is supposed to suck.

Our advice: Just listen to your inner voice. Get your thoughts on paper and then revise, revise, revise. To paraphrase Voltaire: “Don’t let perfection be the enemy of good.”

Here are some tips that have helped many of our clients:

1. Frame it. We’ve never been big on formal outlines since they conjure bad memories of school term papers. But you still need some kind of framework for the wisdom you’re planning to share with your audience:
-- Start with a 1-2 sentence intro about why you’re taking on this topic today.
-- Then come up with 3-4 bullets about what the reader will learn.
-- Conclude with one big thing the reader will learn after reading what you have to say.

2. Time It.
Set the timer on your phone for 30 minutes. Don’t answer any calls or emails and just write away. At the 30-minute mark, stop typing and see what you’ve got. Don’t worry about grammatical errors or typos. Just ask yourself, does it flow? Does it make a point? Does it sound like me? If not, give yourself 5 more minutes max.

3. Sell it. Now can you write a provocative headline and subhead around what you’ve got? Why should a busy reader take time out of their day to stop what they’re doing and read your words? What can you share that they haven’t already heard a dozen times before?

4. Summarize It.
Summarize what you’re trying to tell your readers/clients/followers in 3-4 bullet points. Those are the “Key Takeaways” that go at the top of your piece to make it easier to scan on a phone, tablet or computer screen.

5. Step away from it.
Take a break from your writing for at least an hour. Chances are, the words you thought were so brilliant before your break suddenly stink like a garbage dump I August upon your return. Don’t despair, that’s part of the process. You can give up, or you can dust yourself off and make it better.

6. Read it back to yourself aloud. Better yet, dictate it into your smartphone voice recorder and play it back. You may not like what you sound like, but this technique will prevent from straying too far from your point and from falling into the run-on-sentence rabbit hole.

7. Revise it.
E.B. White said, “writing is hard work and bad for the health.” Perhaps it is, but it’s an essential part of communicating with your clients, prospects, employees and stakeholders. Set a deadline. Go with your best effort, and then revise, revise and revise even after it’s been published. That’s one thing that’s great about publishing in today’s electronic age. It’s never been easier to fix things and make them better in v2.0 (or v3.0).

Conclusion

Writing is like a muscle—the more you exercise this skill, the stronger, leaner, and more efficient it will be.  To become a faster writer, you simply have to practice writing faster. But it’s less painful than getting run over by a pickup truck.

Like it or not, you need to be a writer. You might even enjoy the process of seeing your writing times and wordsmithing stamina set new personal bests.


What’s your take?
I’d like to hear from you.

 

#practicemanagement, #writing

Thursday, July 15, 2021

Global Minimum Tax a Big Step in the Right Direction

But the devil is in the details. If your client or company is impacted by new global tax rules, focus on your tax base not your tax rate

By Cecil Nazareth, guest columnist

 

 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced last week that 130 of the 139 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) agreed to a conceptual framework to overhaul the global tax system. Those countries represent about 90% of the global GDP.

 

By far the most talked about provision is the proposed minimum income tax rate of at least 15% on multinational corporations, regardless of where they operate. The OECD estimates that governments lose between $100 billion and $240 billion in revenue to tax avoidance each year. The new plan, likely to be finalized this fall, has the potential to raise $150 billion in extra tax revenue annually, according to OECD.


In a rare display of unilateral support, Russia, China and India joined the U.S. and other G20 countries in supporting the global minimum corporate tax. That’s a huge step forward since China and India previously had concerns about the proposed overhaul. In fact, of the nine nations that refused to sign the tentative framework, only Ireland is a significant player in the global tax (avoidance) arena since it is the European headquarters for most of the large U.S. tech companies. The others are Barbados, Estonia, Hungary, Kenya, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, St. Vincent, Peru and the Grenadines.

Rationale behind the overhaul

As countries seek to attract more foreign investment, Yellen among others have long argued that they drive their tax rates lower as they compete to create the most favorable environment for businesses, which in turn drives tax revenues down for everyone—hence to so-called race to the bottom. 

Steven Plotnick, an international taxation expert of counsel to McLaughlin & Stern, told me the other day that “the minimum global by-country corporate tax rate is designed to limit the use of tax havens to shield profit of multinational companies, while potentially giving smaller countries more tax revenue from the largest corporations.” By creating a more level playing field, Plotnick said the minimum global tax rate, which would now be the least amount applied to companies’ overseas profits, would eliminate racing to the bottom in terms of corporate taxes.”

As detailed in my forthcoming book,
Global Accounting: 2021 & Beyond, corporations have long used a myriad of tactics to reduce their tax liability, often by shifting profits and revenues to low-tax countries such as Bermuda (7%), the Cayman Islands (0%) or Ireland (12.5%), regardless of which country or jurisdiction a sale is made. Multinationals are highly trained profit-shifters. Amazon, Google, Nike, Fedex and other U.S.-based multinationals generate billions of dollars in profit and pay little or nothing in corporate tax. That also deprives the U.S. of tax revenue it should have received in exchange for providing good infrastructure, law enforcement and military protection for companies doing business here.

For years, the OECD has pushed to eliminate corporate strategies that it believes “exploits gaps and mismatches in tax rules to avoid paying tax." The global minimum tax would apply to companies' foreign earnings, meaning that countries could still establish their own corporate tax rate at home. 

But it’s not that simple.

It’s very easy for companies to move intangibles across borders and pay tax on it at the lowest possible rate. The U.S. isn’t the only country that’s been trying to curtail this process, but it hasn’t been easy.

For instance, France came up with a digital tax a few years ago in which they taxed all the big U.S. tech companies (Amazon, Google, Facebook) claiming those behemoths were doing business in their countries but not providing those countries with any tax revenue. However, after the European digital tax was passed, the U.S. retaliated by imposing tariffs on French wines and other popular goods that were being exported to the U.S. market, making those goods significantly more expensive to U.S. consumers, restaurants, and liquor distributors than they used to be.

So who wins? Nobody! Hence the proverbial race to the bottom.


Adapting tax policy to the modern world

I believe 15% is a reasonable corporate tax for multinationals to pay. When international tax laws were written a century ago, they were based on what’s called a “physical presence test.” In other words, wherever a company had a permanent physical establishment, they would have to pay tax to that jurisdiction.

But physical presence has no meaning in today’s digital world. For example, Amazon is selling product in France, Germany, and other European nations, but it doesn’t have a physical office or manufacturing facilities in those countries. Amazon, at a minimum, has major warehousing and distribution structures in France. It makes a lot of money selling to consumers in those countries, so it should pay a base level of tax to conduct business there. I’ve found that it’s all about moving from a physical presence test to a “revenue-earned” model. The logic being, if you earn money in a particular country, that country should get a fair share of the global minimum tax you pay.

Advantages of the global minimum tax

1. It should eliminate significant profit-shifting to low-tax countries. According to Plotnick, who is also an adjunct professor of partnership taxation at New York Law School, with each country having at least a 15% corporate tax rate, most companies would not feel as incentivized to move their intellectual property abroad or otherwise shift profits from one jurisdiction to another. “Of course, 15% is less than the current U.S. corporate tax rate of 21%, so there will still be some incentive to shift profits,” noted Plotnick. But overall, assuming enhanced tax revenues are a positive development, all countries should benefit, he added. 

2. It eliminates trade wars. With every company paying a significant effective corporate tax rate on income regardless of where that income is earned, it would eliminate silly disputes in which you have a digital tax (i.e., France) being imposed by one country and retaliatory tariffs (i.e., United States) on the other. “Unfortunately, as the ’income base’ upon which each company imposes this 15% minimum tax has not been explicitly defined, it is unclear that manipulations cannot still continue to occur,” Plotnick cautioned.

3. It makes it easier for multinationals to plan their tax burden so they can allocate profits and taxes accordingly.

Which multinationals will be impacted?

Roughly four in five Fortune 500 companies (80%) are based in the United States. If we shift to a revenue model instead of the traditional physical presence test, then a U.S. multinational like Apple Computer, currently paying 12.5% income tax to Ireland would have to pay an annual additional 2.5% minimum tax to the United States. The United States would still be entitled to another 6% tax on dividends when a dividend is paid from Ireland to the United States. As a result, there would still be some tax incentive to maintaining a presence in Ireland. However, Ireland may not like that arrangement.

According to Plotnick, if Ireland decides to bump its corporate tax rate up to 15%, then a company like Apple would presumably have no tax incentive to be in Ireland as opposed to any other 15%-taxing jurisdiction. Thus, the overseas countries Apple then chooses to operate in going forward will be driven by non-tax business factors (e.g., qualified work force, manufacturing capabilities, etc.). But, Plotnick said, to the extent that Apple continues to operate overseas and does not bring jobs and operations back to the United States, the U.S. could end up receiving less in tax revenues as creditable taxes paid by Apple (for example) would now be increasing to 15% on its overseas income.

“Of course, countries do not always define income in the same manner (see Challenges, below),” noted Plotnick. For example, the United States allows for “bonus depreciation” and certain income to be tax-exempt, while other countries do not. So, the exact “interplay of this 15% minimum tax” remains to be seen, Plotnick added.

Challenges

The global minimum tax has challenges, of course. What should a company’s taxes in each country be based on? Will it be on net profits, allocated profits, sales, advertising, or some other metric? As Plotnick observed, the United States presumably believes its 21% tax rate exceeds the 15% global minimum. The U.S. may believe it does not need to change its definition of income that’s subject to tax or how that income is sourced (U.S. or foreign) to comply with the proposed 15% global minimum tax--perhaps apart from getting rid of the artificial deduction for Foreign Derived Intangible Income (FDII).

From where I sit, the global minimum tax makes sense at the 30,000-foot level, but there’s a lot of finetuning to do. As always, the devil is in the details.

Again, the tax base (not the tax rate) is what will be the most challenging aspect of the global minimum tax. That’s because it’s very unclear what you will base the 15% tax on. If it’s based on revenues, then you’re essentially talking about a sales tax. And nobody likes the sound of that.

Also, we still need Congressional approval for the global minimum tax. It all comes down to members resolving two critical questions:

1. What are we giving up by moving our tax base outside our borders?
2. What are we getting in return?

If we believe that our 21% corporate tax rate satisfies the 15% minimum, “I think we might just be done,” suggested Plotnick. “If we want to impose a new top-up regime to add to Subpart F and GILTI, to make sure income from certain jurisdictions are subject to a 15% tax, then that would require legislation, but I am not sure that part is required necessarily,” Plotnick added.

In either case, I’m confident the global minimum tax is not likely to come to fruition until 2023. Multinationals are going to benefit greatly by this type of simplified, across-the-board tax, other than perhaps having to pay more in tax currently. As with any new legislation there will be winners and losers. Countries that were not able to collect tax on multinationals in the past may now be able to collect some money and improve their tax base. But Ireland, Cayman Islands and other low-tax havens could see the tax coffers shrinking at a time when they are still digging themselves out of the COVID-induced recession.

Conclusion

This fall, there should be a more formal sign off on the global minimum tax by 130-plus countries that support it. Obviously, there will need to be some fine-tuning, but moving to a revenue-based model from the century-old physical presence test is much more valid in this inter-connected digital age.

Taxing multinationals at 15 percent would still leave them facing a lower rate than the average American pays in state and federal income tax. But it’s a step in the right direction and halts the suicidal tax race to the bottom.

 

Cecil Nazareth is a partner with Nazareth CPAs–Global Accountants, a CPA firm with offices in New York, New jersey and Connecticut. The firm specializes in international tax and accounting, particularly for SME companies, subsidiaries of foreign parents and high-net-worth families in India and the U.S. Nazareth is a member of the AICPA’s Global Issues Task Force and author of the books, International Tax & Compliance Handbook and Global Accounting: 2021 & Beyond.

 

#Globaltax, #CecilNazareth, #StevenPlotnick