Back in 1986, Warren Buffet made one of his most astute observations: “Occasional outbreaks of two super-contagious diseases—fear and greed—will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these epidemics will be unpredictable.”
He could have not been more
prophetic.
As we were winding up our 4th
annual CPA/Wealth Advisor Confidence Survey™ in late February, Covid tore
through the country. We decided to extend the survey another six weeks so we
could have a more balanced view of advisor sentiment pre- and post-Covid onset.
*** NOTE: I’ll be sharing our research findings
Wed. 10/21 at Terrapin Media’s annual USA Accounting & Finance Show (see
Practice Management Track, 10am ET)
While the carnage has been
wide and deep throughout the world, our research shows U.S. advisors remain
buoyant. In fact, four out of five advisors (79%) told us they expected to see
their practices grow in 2020—up from 74 percent who said so in January and
February of this year, shortly before Covid emerged in the U.S.
The prevailing sentiment seemed to be that we would recover relatively quickly
from the crisis after enduring severe short-term pain.
As one survey respondent told us: “We have never seen a recession as a deliberate
policy choice before (this is very important to understand).”
Another respondent told us: “We’re most likely in an ‘event-driven’ bear market which
was triggered by an exogenous shock (i.e. pandemic) rather than in a more
serious type of bear market that is structural or cyclical.”
Yet another said today’s
situation reminded him of other event-driven downturns such as the ’73 oil
crisis, or earlier World Wars. “Event-driven bear markets are the easiest
breed of bear to tame,” he said. “We tend to recover much faster from
event-driven bear markets than we do from structural and cyclical bear
markets.”
Further, “Recessions only follow bear
market about two-thirds of the time,” one respondent chided us.
Looking ahead
Clearly,
the pandemic has created enormous demand for financial advice and reassurance. Millions
of Americans are contemplating their own legacy (perhaps demise). Uncertainty
about markets, economy, interest rates, taxes, estate exemptions and Covid
relief is keeping advisors very, very busy.
In fact, the percentage of firms
expecting to grow by double digits in 2020 increased to (38%)
since the COVID onset, from 35% in early 2020 and from 28% in Q1/2019.
Tomorrow morning at 10am ET (see
Practice Management track) I’ll be sharing our research findings
at Terrapin Media’s annual USA Accounting & Finance Show—the nation’s
largest independent virtual conference for accounting and financial
professionals.
*** I’ve been given some free registration passes to share with you https://bit.ly/3durppb
Thanks as always to my research
partners since 2016: Rick Telberg of CPA Trendlines and Valentino
Sabuco of The Financial Awareness Foundation.
I hope you can join me.
Conclusion
As Albert Einstein famously said: “In the midst of every crisis, lies great
opportunity.”
#wealthadvisorconfidence #ricktelberg #valentinosabuco #AccountingShowUS #CPAconfidence
#practicemanagement
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