Tablets to Outsell Notebooks in 2013

Tablets to Outsell Notebooks in 2013
Online advertising now 25% of U.S. ad budgets; mobile key to growth

Two important milestones were reached for B2B marketers this week. First, tablets are expected to outship notebooks this year, according to separate report this week from NPD DisplaySearch and Gartner. Second, U.S. marketers will devote at least 25 percent of their budgets to online advertising in 2013.

For the first time ever, researchers predict that tablets will grab more than 50 percent of market share in 2013, up from around 38 percent last year and 26 percent in 2011. Growth in tablet shipments are predicted to rise 64 percent this year from 2012, the report said. Global demand for tablets has opened up the market for a variety of players, both large and small. But, what caught our attention was that growth will not necessarily be driven by the iPad, but by a variety of devices, particularly those with smaller screens. Apple recently curtailed order for iPad parts, although we think the company’s recent stock slide is a correction more than a long-term trend and might signal a buying opportunity for those looking for bargains in the tech sector.

“Tablets have dramatically changed the device landscape for PCs, not so much by cannibalizing PC sales, but by causing PC users to shift consumption to tablets rather than replacing older PCs,” according to Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa, in the report. “This transformation was triggered by the availability of low-cost tablets in 2012,” he added.

According to the NPD folks, tablets with screen size between 7.0 and 7.9 inches will garner 45 percent of the market this year--that’s about 108 million units. In contrast, larger 9.7-inch tablets such as the traditional iPad are estimate to get only a 17 percent share of market. The other 38 percent is made up of the wide variety of sizes, ranging from 5.6 inches to 13.3 inches.

"The tablet PC market saw increasing investments in North America in the second half of 2012, from major brands that tested not only new screen sizes and price points, but also unconventional business models to support their efforts," NPD DisplaySearch analyst Richard Shim said in a news release. "In 2013, further investments are expected worldwide, stoking demand to the point that tablet PC shipments will exceed those of notebook PCs."

Online poised for 25 percent share of ad dollars; mobile fueling half the growth

Meanwhile, online advertising will pass a symbolic milestone this year, becoming one out of every four dollars spent by U.S. advertisers, according to new projections from the equity research team at J.P. Morgan. The growth, writes Internet sector analyst Doug Anmuth, is being fueled by advertisers shifting budgets from analog media to follow consumer time spent with digital media, especially Internet connected mobile devices, as well as continuing momentum of social media platforms like Facebook which announced a powerful search feature today to compete with Google, Yelp and LinkedIn.

“As consumer behavior and time spent online rapidly shifts towards mobile, we expect advertising dollars to follow,” Anmuth wrote in a report released to investors late last week, adding: “We are projecting Internet advertising in the U.S. to grow to $43.5 billion in 2013.”

The J.P. Morgan estimate represents a 17.4 percent gain over 2012 online ad spending levels. As a result, online media will be receiving one out of every four dollars in 2013 U.S. ad budgets. That being said, Anmuth estimates about half of that growth will be coming from mobile Web ad spending, and without the mobile component, the uptick in online ad spending would be only about 10 percent from 2012.

Conclusion
Two key tipping points have finally tipped. Do you think the surge in tablet adoption and online/mobile advertising is merely a coincidence? C’mon. You’re too smart for that. Do we really need to tell you where to focus your energies in 2013?

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TAGS: Android, Tablets , iPad, notebooks, Apple, Doug Anmuth, J.P. Morgan, Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa, NPD DisplaySearch, Richard Shim, Facebook, Facebook, Google, Yelp, LinkedIn

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New Year’s Resolutions in September?
iPad 5. No surprises, but still takes consumers and marketers by storm

As many of you know, last night marked the start of Rosh Hashana, the important Jewish Holiday signifying the start of a new year on the Hebrew calendar and a time of self-reflection and fresh starts. But some things never change (see early mobile/social media device at left introduced about 5,000 years ago).

Regardless of your faith, September tends to be a time of renewal for many of us in the B2B world. Kids are back to school; a new football season is under way; the leaves start turning in many parts of the country and everyone in the business world has shaken off the post Labor Day rust to start making real decisions about Q4/2012 and 2013 (aka Hebrew year 5773).

According to the findings of the "2012 Meetings Industry Pulse Indicator" from Successful Meetings, nearly two-thirds (63.9%) of C-suite executives, presidents, and vice presidents predict that business conditions will be the same at the end of the year as they are now. Of the remainder, one in four (23%) predict better conditions and 13 percent predicting worse conditions. OK, so that’s not exactly a warm and fuzzy forecast, but it also means seven out of eight top level business leaders DO NOT think things will be worse next year, regardless of the election outcome.

PREDICTION: We have no idea which party is going to win the Presidential election. But, we can tell you that if you’re not planning to hit the ground running at 100 percent full speed in 2013, then you ABSOLUTELY will be left in the dust by your competitors and strategic partners. “Cautious optimism” is the new optimism in this hyper competitive global economy. You need to take advantage of any opening you can, just like a bruising running back who turns a tiny opening in the line into a 7 yard gain.

imPact of iPad 5

Consumers aren’t the only ones licking their chops over the arrival of the iPhone 5. As expected, Apple rolled out The 5 on Wednesday with a larger display, improved camera and 4G LTE networking all in a thinner body of aluminum and glass. A JP Morgan estimate projects Apple will sell some 45 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, with more than half being iPhone 5s. What’s more, the dang thing is sold out--Apple reported today that iPhone 5 pre-orders topped 2 million in the first 24 hours--more than double the record set by the iPhone 4S, last year. Retail analysts are reporting back orders of two to four weeks.

While there was nothing in iPad 5’s introduction that hadn’t already been predicted by industry analysts and bloggers, digital ad executives and analysts expect the iPhone to attract new customers and provide a richer platform for mobile campaigns and m-commerce. Forrester Research analyst Charles Golvin said in his blog post last week that competitors such as HTC and Nokia already offer some of the features Apple introduced Wednesday, like those for imaging. “But Apple still outpaces the competition when it comes to the entire package--the new iPhone unites significant improvements in industrial design, imaging, audio and connectivity, along with the wealth of new capabilities that iOS6 enables.”

Why ad execs are juiced about the 5

Ad executives see promise with the iPhone 5's larger, 4-inch screen with Retina display, boasting 18 percent more pixels for delivering interactive campaigns. Experts say Mis-clicks will be less likely and actions a little easier to execute. Extra screen size will also be a bonus for landing pages and sites that campaigns link to, encouraging interaction.

The faster delivery of mobile data via 4G could spur greater use of video in advertising with the knowledge that users are likely to have a better experience than with 3G networks. Combined with the better visual aspects of the iPhone 5, it could lead to increased use of apps, the mobile Web and other types of mobile media.

Our Take: If you’re trying to connect with your customers, clients and hot prospects in any
meaningful way, you better assume they’re mobile more often than desk-bound and when they’re mobile, they’re most likely on the Apple platform.

Conclusion

Be smart, be aggressive and be mobile in 2013 (or Hebrew Year 5773). L’Shana Tova. Basically that means have a healthy and sweet New Year. From where we sit, 2013 starts now.

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TAGS: Rosh Hashana, Charles Golvin, Forrester Research, Successful Meetings, Apple, iPhone 5

 

iRony: Google heavies up on traditional advertising; iPad one hot item!

How B2B media will benefit

As we wind up Q1, jobless claims this week hit a 4 year low and the financial markets ended the first quarter up 12 percent (based on S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000). But gas prices are up again, 22 percent since December to a national average of $3.92. Rising energy prices have weighed on economic confidence and cut into household budgets. That’s a drag on media spending and will be a significant concern for the Obama administration seeking re-election.

On Friday, the Prez said there was enough oil in world markets to allow countries to reduce their Iranian imports significantly, clearing the way for Washington to impose severe new sanctions intended to slash Iran’s oil revenue and press Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. We’ll see how tough Obama stays as we get closer to the November elections with $5 per gallon gas prices, so expect more turbulence in the financial markets—and at the pump.

Google turns to traditional advertising

We got a kick out of this item in Tuesday’s Journal
that Google will spend tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars on TV, magazine and newspaper ads to promote new services, including its Google+ social network and Chrome Web browser. You’ve got to hand it to the kids from Silicon Valley. First kill traditional media, then dominate what’s left of it—and perpetuate the “don’t be evil” mantra. You can’t make this stuff up!


It’s official, new iPad runs hot and apps more fickle

Venerable Wall Street Journal tech columnist, Walter Mossberg says it’s true. c/Net and Huffington Post say it might be true. Let’s see what loyal Apple customers and support staff have to say in this thread

Business and technology media gaining momentum

On the B2B media side, we got “guidance” from PIB, min and other sources that business and technology magazine will show encouraging page gains when the first quarter ad tallies are released most likely next week. Stay tuned as these two sectors, which depends on long sales cycles and “sweaty palms” decision across multiple points of contact, may be finally poised for a rebound. Expect both sectors to benefit from the Google ad blitz and Apple reputation restoration campaigns.

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LinkedIn and Tablets Increase Decisions for B2B Marketers

With consumers and small business on one side and ‘tortured” corporate customers on the other, how much longer will users put up with forced updates and interminable boot up time? Google and Apple reinvent computing and computer retailing. Has Mars/Venus gender battle moved to tablets?

Whether or not you think last week’s lofty IPO and post-offering “pop” for professional networking platform LinkedIn signaled a new “tech bubble about to burst,” the head of a large engineering and technology society told me Friday that he was encouraged by the amount of “let’s try and see how it goes” innovation he’s from emerging media, information and technology companies. This ability to innovate, react, evolves and correct early stumbles may be the key to success in the next decade and beyond. Meanwhile, the old guard seems to be drifting further and further back in the rear view mirror.

Hewlett-Packard Co. reduced its 2011 outlook and warned of weaker results in its current quarter in a hastily arranged earnings call last week, a day after an email from CEO, Leo Apotheker to his top brass, warning of tough times became public. News of the memo and the revised outlook sent H-P's shares down 9 percent in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange. HP’s pessimistic outlook is a result of changes the Palo Alto, Calif., company is making in its services business and poor demand for personal computers among consumers. Apotheker said weak PC sales to consumers is an industry-wide problem due in part to the rise of tablet devices such as Apple Inc.'s iPad. Dell, Acer and Sony among others have been whining a similar tune of late.

In response, HP will soon release its own tablet, dubbed the TouchPad, but it will not only have to contend with Apple’s passionately followed products (and social media army), but with Apple’s incredibly successful retail stores—and Google’s lightweight computing devices, which we’ll get to in a minute.

OUR TAKE: We’re not here to predict who’s going to win the table and smart phone wars, but it’s relevant for B2B marketers to know which types of screens, devices and security environment that your target consumers are spending their time when they receive your messages. And that not only includes tablets and smart phones, but LinkedIn-style social networking platforms for professionals and other busy grownups who don’t have hours of free time on their hands and only post when they something relevant to share (or answer).

Gender impact on tablet adoption

If you’re targeting consumers and small business, it’s increasingly likely you’ll to be reaching decision makers not on clunky PC’s, but on open access, easy to use devices –tablets, iPads, smart phones and “smart” notebooks that boot up quickly, and can easily handle rich media, video, apps, downloads and the like. According to a report in today’s New York Times, based on Forrester Research, the majority of tablet owners are male, while the majority of e-readers (such as Barnes’ and Nobles’ Nook Color) are female. Researchers say this has more to do with desire for simplicity (female) or tech power (men) than it does with color, design and actual reading experience although women supposedly want a more contemplative book-like reading experience and men allegedly want a more multimedia, action-oriented experience. Regardless of preference, consumers and business decision-makers are gravitating toward gadgets that are fast, fun, adaptable, easy to carry and easy to fix (often by you, the end user). And these tend to be the devices that don’t block advertising messages as effectively as most corporate spam filters and firewalls. In exchange for this freedom, recipients of your messaging will demand well-thought out creative that’s targeted, relevant and makes full use multimedia.

Meanwhile Google took another swipe at Microsoft last week when it introduced a new kind of computer called a Chromebook, which stores everything online. Google hopes that the devices, which it says will eliminate the need for software updates and hard drive backups and will boot up within eight seconds, will replace PCs running Microsoft’s Windows software in offices and homes around the world.

OUR TAKE: Users are losing patience with endless Windows updates, interminable bootup times and business applications (spreadsheets, presentations, word processing) that work fine, but get over-engineered every 12 months so users have to keep relearning how to use them. Corporate warriors don’t have much choice in the matter, except to covet their spouses, kids and friends’ devices. But, consumers and small business owners DO have a choice, and they’re overwhelmingly going for portability and simplicity over fortress-like security.

However, if your core decision-makers are still in large organizations, then no matter how many fun, easy to work with gadgets they have at home, they’ll still be at the mercy of command and control IT departments—and that means, slow connectivity, limited multimedia and downloading opportunities.

That affects your creative and your ability to get into targets’ sub-conscious. Here, the main objective is simply to get in the door, not to be eye-catching. Corporate spam filters will flag anything they don’t deem plain vanilla. In this environment, it’s best just to play it straight. Stick with bullet points, features and benefits—forget about storytelling and dazzling techno tricks.

Users tired of being tortured

“Whether it be Microsoft or other OS vendors, I think the complexity of managing your computers is really torturing users out there,” Sergey Brin, Google’s co-founder and director of special projects, said recently at the Google I/O developer conference “That’s a flawed model fundamentally. And I think Chromebooks are a new model that doesn’t put the burden of managing your computer on yourself.”

Experts say Google will not have an easy time challenging Microsoft, which dominates the workplace. We think that’s due more to inertia, fear and cozy VAR relationships than it is a result of better products. While Google has bested Microsoft in operating system software for mobile phones, it has taken on Microsoft in the workplace before and failed to budge it, most notably in word processing and spreadsheet software and collaboration tools.

Google says Chromebooks will attract corporate technology buyers because Google automatically updates the Chrome operating system over the Internet and there is no need to back up computers because if they are lost or ruined, all the data exists online. “We’re venturing into a really new model of computing that I don’t think was possible previously, even a few years ago,” Brin purportedly said at Google’s recent user conference, adding that it’s just a much easier way to compute.

Computing in a whole new way

The Chrome operating system, which Google introduced in 2009, does away with desktop software and storing data on a computer. Instead, it is not much more than a browser, and all of a computer user’s information, like documents, photos and e-mail messages, is stored on the Internet, or in “the cloud.” Instead of desktop software like Microsoft Word or iPhoto, people use Web-based software like Google Docs, Microsoft Office 365 or Picasa.

Corporate I.T. departments are not known for quickly adopting flashy new products. However, tablet computers with touch screens, like the iPad, are replacing laptops in some workplaces, so the Chromebook may be late to the game. Microsoft has also seen some softness in its sales for its operating system software. Google’s strategy is to go after businesses and schools first. If students get used to a Web-based operating system, they might request it in their offices later on, and if people use it at work, they might decide to buy one for their homes.

The tagline at the end of Google’s promotional video for Chromebooks? “Ready when you are.” So are we. And so should you, if you’re a smart B2B marketer.

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