Creativity and innovation the keys to business survival. Heed economic indicators, not schizophrenic stock market. Five keys to a real-world business plan.
U.S. financial markets continued their slide, hampered by uncertainty over how tough U.S. regulators will get with Wall Street speculators and how many blue-chip financial institutions may get sucked into the mounting European debt crisis. The key word here is “uncertainty” not actuality.
In the real world, consumer confidence is rising as the job market and housing front continue to improve. On Tuesday, The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 63.3 points, up from 57.7 points in April. The index got a boost from the six-month consumer outlook which jumped to 85.3 from 77.4, the highest since August 2007. A reading of 90 indicates economy on solid footing, 100 means growth. Index hit a record low of 25.3 back in Feb 2009. Home sales were better than expected in April. Existing home sales were the highest in five months according to National Association of Realtors (NAR) and median home prices rose for the second straight month, 2.1 percent in April despite an 8-month inventory on the market. And ad spending continues to rebound as researcher IDC projected U.S. online ad spending to shoot up 12.6 percent by end of 2010, it has now raised that number to 19 percent to $31.5 billion. The change follows a string of surprisingly strong numbers for all segments of online advertising, even display, which had been in decline for the past two years. Last week, the Interactive Advertising Bureau said internet ad spending rose 7.5 percent in Q1 to $5.9 billion.
Creativity key to corporate survival
A newly released IBM study of 1,500 CEOs found that 79 percent expect increased global complexity and only 49 percent feel prepared to deal with it. The IBM study was based on face-to-face interviews with leaders of all size companies in 33 industries and 60 companies.
Surveyed execs identified “creativity” as the single most important leadership competency for enterprises seeking a path through this complexity. How so? Creative leaders expect to make deeper business model changes to realize their strategies. To succeed, they take more calculated risks, find new ideas, and keep innovating in how they lead and communicate.
CEOs now realize that creativity trumps other leadership characteristics. Creative leaders are comfortable with ambiguity and experimentation. To connect with and inspire a new generation, they lead and interact in entirely new ways. CEOs saw the need to seed creativity across their organizations rather than set apart “creative types” in siloed departments like product design. To benefit from the diversity of ideas each employee can contribute. Standouts encourage a new mindset of questioning. They invite employees at all levels to challenge assumptions based on past experiences and scrutinize “the way we’ve always done things.”
Our take? Great ideas, but a commitment to creativity and agility is more easily said than done when you factor in quarterly analysts and shareholder pressure and a hyper-paranoid workforce that’s scared to death of having a mistake pinned on them.
5 keys to a real world business plan
According to blogger, Seth Godin, the traditional corporate or venture capital-seeking business plan is a croc.
“If I want the real truth about a business and where it's going, I'd divide the modern business plan into five sections,” quips Godin:
1. Truth
2. Assertions
3. Alternatives
4. People
5. Money
The truth section describes the world as it is. Tell me about the market you are entering, the needs that already exist, the competitors in your space, technology standards, the way others have succeeded and failed in the past. The assertions section is your chance to describe how you're going to change things. We will do X, and then Y will happen. We will build Z with this much money in this much time. The alternatives section tells me what you'll do if that happens. How much flexibility does your product or team have? If your assertions don't pan out, is it over? The people section rightly highlights the key element... who is on your team, who is going to join your team. 'Who' doesn't mean their resume, who means their attitudes and abilities and track record in shipping. And the last section is all about money. How much do you need, how will you spend it, what does cash flow look like, P&Ls, balance sheets, margins and exit strategies.
Cell phones use more for data than calls
CITA, the wireless industry association reported last week that the amount of data in text, music, e-mail and other activities surprassed voice calls on mobile devices in 2009.
According to comScore, total cell phone subscribers from 2009 to 2010 is about the same, but the number of users going online is up across almost all Web categories. Visitors to social networking sites like Facebook and Twiter increased 78 percent. Many more users are going to reference site like Answer.com or wiki, up 46 percent and banking sites up 45 percent.
Top categories for browsing on mobile devices
1. Search 32.1M users +36%
2. Social networking 27.3M users +78%
3. Weather 26.1M users _+ 21%
4. News 24M users +29%
5. Sports info 19.7M users +25%
Don’t be fooled by the schizophrenic stock market. This recovery – no matter how fragile – is the real deal. Today’s market leaders are the ones who’ve had the pedal to the metal since the depths of the recession, not the “duck and cover” crowd. Agility, creativity and the willingness to make mistakes (and learn from them) will guide you through all types of water, no matter how turbulent.
VCRGD6XDXT3T
Showing posts with label advertising forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label advertising forecast. Show all posts
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Friday, December 04, 2009
Study: Ad Spending Plans Returning to Pre-Recession Levels
But, consumers tightfisted as Cyber Monday fails to rescue a bleak Black Friday. Is a prolonged ‘saving spree’ on the horizon? Google CEO defends practices vs. newspaper industry and online video surges.
Ad executives are more optimistic about their budgets than at any time in the past two years according to new research from Advertiser Perceptions Inc., a media industry research firm that tracks the long-term confidence of advertisers and agency media-buying executives. The Ad Perceptions index currently stands at a positive four percentage points, its highest level since the autumn of 2007, when the index stood at positive eight percentage points.
The most recent survey, fielded in November, shows that ad spending sentiment is now improving for every medium tracked, even for some traditional media such as newspapers, magazines and broadcast, which continue to have an overall negative index. The outlook for most electronic media, especially online and mobile media, is well in the positive range and also continues to improve.
The positive index for all digital media - both online and mobile - went from 40 percentage points in the spring 2009 survey to 55 percentage points in the just-completed fall survey. The positive index for cable TV jumped to 11 percentage points from one percentage point last spring. Traditional media are still in negative territory, but improving, researchers said. For example, broadcast television stood at minus eight percent; magazines at minus 19 percent and local newspapers at minus 35 percent. Bleak readings, bit significantly on the mend from the last time they had their temperatures checked.
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece earlier this week, Google CEO said the Internet wasn’t destroying the news industry as much as forcing adoption of a more efficient business model. Borrowing from Rupert Murdoch, Schmidt wrote: “It's understandable to look to find someone else to blame. But it is complacency caused by past monopolies, not technology, that has been the real threat to the news industry.“
From Black Friday to Cyber Monday consumers cautious this Holiday season
Online shopping sites reported a surge in sales and traffic on CyberMonday (the first Monday after Thanksgiving), surpassing the tepid results achieved by bricks-and-mortar retailers so far this Holiday season. Online shoppers spent 11 percent more than they did a year ago, according to CoreMetrics a Web analytics company that tracks online shopping behavior in the U.S. But the average size of each purchase was down 14 percent from last year. Researchers say this indicates that Web merchants are facing the same bargain-hunting/comparison shopping consumer mindset that traditional retailers have faced so far.
Despite today’s drop in the official national unemployment rate, which was the first improvement in the jobless rate in 24 months, “the U.S. consumer is still too depressed to buy us a quick end to the recession,” laments Forbes columnist A. Gary Shilling in this week’s issue. “Consumers have no choice but to begin a decade-long saving spree as depressed home prices and high unemployment rates are temporing their willingness to take on debt of any kind – if they can even get it -- from personal credit cards to home equity lines.
Is the job market really coming back? Click here for a fairly well balanced range of opinions from Wall Street Journal online discussion
Online shopping may account for 10 percent of Holiday shopping this year, up from five percent to seven percent in previous years according to Forrester Research, which indicated the shift to online shopping, fueled by deal seekers in a recession, may come at the expense of traditional stores later in the Holiday season. It’s also important to note that a heavy shopper turnout at this time of year does not necessarily translate into heavy sales. Last year, Black Friday and Cyber Monday traffic hit record levels but the 2008 Holiday retail season was one of the worst in decades according to a New York Times report earlier this week.
If you sensed it was even more crowded than normal at your local mall over Thanksgiving weekend, you’re not alone. According to the National Retail Foundation (NRF), some 195 million consumers visited U.S. stores and Web sites last weekend, up from 172 million the previous year, but the average spend dropped to $347 from $372 the NRF said as “shoppers can continue to expect retailers to focus on low prices and bargains throughout December.
Media royalty was fed by advertising until Google blew that game apart
In case you missed it, David Carr’s thought-provoking piece “The Fall and Rise of Media” in MOnday's New York Times is worth a quick read. Instead of just another piece bashing traditional media, Carr neatly dissects traditional media’s appeal for ambitious young people, its surprising ability to extend its lifecycle beyond its logical expiration date, and how it is currently dealing with its long overdue day of reckoning. Rather than blaming Google, Facebook and Craig’s list for finally fixing an unaccountable advertising economy that “was built on inefficiency and excess, Carr points to a new future “which is not a bad deal if your ignore all the collateral gore.” Ambitious young people will still flock to Manhattan to remake world, Carr quips -- “they just won’t be stopping by the human resource department of Conde Nast to begin their ascent.” For every kid he sees wandering the entrance of the media world looking for an entrance that has long since closed, he sees another kid “who is a bundle of ideas, energy and technological mastery, who is not just knocking on doors but seeking to knock them down.”
Viewing of Online Video Streams Up 26 percent in October
The Nielsen Company today reported overall online video usage and top online brands ranked by video streams for October 2009. Year-over-year, unique viewers, total streams, streams per viewer and time per viewer were up, led by a 26 percent growth in total streams.
October 2009 vs October 2008
Unique Viewers**********138.6M (+14.8%)
Total Streams**************11.2B (+26.2%)
Streams per Viewer********81.0 (+ 9.9%)
Time per Viewer (min) 212.5 (+ 23.8%)
Source: The Nielsen Company
In a related note, Nielsen announced Tuesday that it would start counting online television viewership in its overall rating measurement for which an estimated $70 billion in ad spending is predicated. More next week.
From where we sit, it looks like the 2010 media buying climate will be in lockstop with the 2009 Holiday shopping season – a great deal of bargain hunting and comparison shopping with few long-term commitments and a lot of second-guessing. Measurable value will trump fancy packaging and there will be buyers’ remorse aplenty.
Ad executives are more optimistic about their budgets than at any time in the past two years according to new research from Advertiser Perceptions Inc., a media industry research firm that tracks the long-term confidence of advertisers and agency media-buying executives. The Ad Perceptions index currently stands at a positive four percentage points, its highest level since the autumn of 2007, when the index stood at positive eight percentage points.
The most recent survey, fielded in November, shows that ad spending sentiment is now improving for every medium tracked, even for some traditional media such as newspapers, magazines and broadcast, which continue to have an overall negative index. The outlook for most electronic media, especially online and mobile media, is well in the positive range and also continues to improve.
The positive index for all digital media - both online and mobile - went from 40 percentage points in the spring 2009 survey to 55 percentage points in the just-completed fall survey. The positive index for cable TV jumped to 11 percentage points from one percentage point last spring. Traditional media are still in negative territory, but improving, researchers said. For example, broadcast television stood at minus eight percent; magazines at minus 19 percent and local newspapers at minus 35 percent. Bleak readings, bit significantly on the mend from the last time they had their temperatures checked.
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece earlier this week, Google CEO said the Internet wasn’t destroying the news industry as much as forcing adoption of a more efficient business model. Borrowing from Rupert Murdoch, Schmidt wrote: “It's understandable to look to find someone else to blame. But it is complacency caused by past monopolies, not technology, that has been the real threat to the news industry.“
From Black Friday to Cyber Monday consumers cautious this Holiday season
Online shopping sites reported a surge in sales and traffic on CyberMonday (the first Monday after Thanksgiving), surpassing the tepid results achieved by bricks-and-mortar retailers so far this Holiday season. Online shoppers spent 11 percent more than they did a year ago, according to CoreMetrics a Web analytics company that tracks online shopping behavior in the U.S. But the average size of each purchase was down 14 percent from last year. Researchers say this indicates that Web merchants are facing the same bargain-hunting/comparison shopping consumer mindset that traditional retailers have faced so far.
Despite today’s drop in the official national unemployment rate, which was the first improvement in the jobless rate in 24 months, “the U.S. consumer is still too depressed to buy us a quick end to the recession,” laments Forbes columnist A. Gary Shilling in this week’s issue. “Consumers have no choice but to begin a decade-long saving spree as depressed home prices and high unemployment rates are temporing their willingness to take on debt of any kind – if they can even get it -- from personal credit cards to home equity lines.
Is the job market really coming back? Click here for a fairly well balanced range of opinions from Wall Street Journal online discussion
Online shopping may account for 10 percent of Holiday shopping this year, up from five percent to seven percent in previous years according to Forrester Research, which indicated the shift to online shopping, fueled by deal seekers in a recession, may come at the expense of traditional stores later in the Holiday season. It’s also important to note that a heavy shopper turnout at this time of year does not necessarily translate into heavy sales. Last year, Black Friday and Cyber Monday traffic hit record levels but the 2008 Holiday retail season was one of the worst in decades according to a New York Times report earlier this week.
If you sensed it was even more crowded than normal at your local mall over Thanksgiving weekend, you’re not alone. According to the National Retail Foundation (NRF), some 195 million consumers visited U.S. stores and Web sites last weekend, up from 172 million the previous year, but the average spend dropped to $347 from $372 the NRF said as “shoppers can continue to expect retailers to focus on low prices and bargains throughout December.
Media royalty was fed by advertising until Google blew that game apart
In case you missed it, David Carr’s thought-provoking piece “The Fall and Rise of Media” in MOnday's New York Times is worth a quick read. Instead of just another piece bashing traditional media, Carr neatly dissects traditional media’s appeal for ambitious young people, its surprising ability to extend its lifecycle beyond its logical expiration date, and how it is currently dealing with its long overdue day of reckoning. Rather than blaming Google, Facebook and Craig’s list for finally fixing an unaccountable advertising economy that “was built on inefficiency and excess, Carr points to a new future “which is not a bad deal if your ignore all the collateral gore.” Ambitious young people will still flock to Manhattan to remake world, Carr quips -- “they just won’t be stopping by the human resource department of Conde Nast to begin their ascent.” For every kid he sees wandering the entrance of the media world looking for an entrance that has long since closed, he sees another kid “who is a bundle of ideas, energy and technological mastery, who is not just knocking on doors but seeking to knock them down.”
Viewing of Online Video Streams Up 26 percent in October
The Nielsen Company today reported overall online video usage and top online brands ranked by video streams for October 2009. Year-over-year, unique viewers, total streams, streams per viewer and time per viewer were up, led by a 26 percent growth in total streams.
October 2009 vs October 2008
Unique Viewers**********138.6M (+14.8%)
Total Streams**************11.2B (+26.2%)
Streams per Viewer********81.0 (+ 9.9%)
Time per Viewer (min) 212.5 (+ 23.8%)
Source: The Nielsen Company
In a related note, Nielsen announced Tuesday that it would start counting online television viewership in its overall rating measurement for which an estimated $70 billion in ad spending is predicated. More next week.
From where we sit, it looks like the 2010 media buying climate will be in lockstop with the 2009 Holiday shopping season – a great deal of bargain hunting and comparison shopping with few long-term commitments and a lot of second-guessing. Measurable value will trump fancy packaging and there will be buyers’ remorse aplenty.
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