Markets and Economy Slog Through Fortnight of Tests

New research points to impact of social media and ‘digital natives’ on your brand.
Despite last Thursday’s stomach churning “flash crash” in the financial markets, most U.S. stock indices are clawing their way back to positive territory for the year. This resiliency, in the face of the European debt crisis, the Time Square Bombing, the Staten Island Ferry crash, the BP/Gulf of Mexico oil spill, flooding in the South and tornados in the Midwest, is encouraging.

U.S. payrolls rose by nearly 300,000 in April, the largest monthly jobs gain in over four years. Most experts are ignoring the fact that the squishy “official” unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent from 9.7 percent. Experts say it’s a sign that once-discouraged Americans have returned to the job market – not a deluge of layoffs from corporate America.

The construction and manufacturing sectors also showed signs of life in the latest economic report, raising hopes of an improving job market. The Institute for Supply Management Monday said the manufacturing barometer had improved 60.4 percent in April, the highest level June 2004. A Commerce Department report said consumer spending rose 0.6 percent in March – the largest increase in five months and households saved less, socking away 2.7 percent of their income in March down from 3.0 percent in Feb. Again, we see the gradual reduction in consumer savings as a confidence indicator, not a return of the conspicuous consumption that marked the latter part of the previous decade.

Is the worst over?

“The worst of the economic impact on Internet advertising is over and the seeds of growth have been planted,” said PricewaterhouseCoopers’ David Silverman in a statement following the release of a new study his firm did in conjunction with the Interactive Advertising Bureau. Forrester Research, Zenith Optimedia and other media forecasting groups have generally revised their 2010 and 2011 ad spending projections favorably in recent months, with most of the upside going to growing sectors (Web, online video, social media, television, outdoor) with a modest slump to continue in out of favor sectors (newspapers, magazines and radio).

Social media and your brand

Though slightly more than 50 percent of regular users never post status updates on Twitter; 70 percent do so on social networking sites like Facebook. Experts say Twitter acts more like a broadcast medium than Facebook does, but users are more than three times as likely to follow brands and companies on Twitter as others users of social networks do, with over 40 percent using Twitter to learn about and provide opinions on brands, according to a recent Edison Research study.

So will social media deliver measurable results for marketers? Well, more than half of marketers surveyed by Datran Media in its fourth annual Marketing & Media Survey say they’re confident it will, and only one in eight (12%) say they’re confident it won’t deliver results. Researchers said social media continues to be a wildcard, but it’s getting easier to measure the impact of a tweet or an update on LinkedIn on the final conversation.

Social media is not as effective at building search engine rankings as it is for building brand awareness and reputation, says a recent Marketing Sherpa study of over 2,000 marketers.

Social media IS effective for:
• Increasing brand or product awareness 49% agree
• Increasing brand or product reputation 45%
• Increasing public relations 43%
• Increasing Web site traffic 41%
• Improving search engine rankings 35%

The future?
Anti social networking of teens, i.e. your future consumers

Last week, the Pew Research Center found that half of American teenagers — defined in the study as ages 12 through 17 — send 50 or more text messages a day and that one third send more than 100 a day. Two thirds of the texters surveyed by the center’s Internet and American Life Project said they were more likely to use their cell phones to text friends than to call them. Fifty-four percent said they text their friends once a day, but only 33 percent said they talk to their friends face-to-face on a daily basis. The findings came just a few months after the Kaiser Family Foundation reported that Americans between the ages of 8 and 18 spend on average 7.5 hours a day using some sort of electronic device, from smart phones to MP3 players to computers — a startling number,

The question on researchers’ minds is whether all that texting, instant messaging and online social networking allows children to become more connected and supportive of their friends — or whether the quality of their interactions is being diminished without the intimacy and emotional give and take of regular, extended face-to-face time.

Gary Small, a neuroscientist and professor of psychiatry at U.C.L.A. and an author of "iBrain: Surviving the Technological Alteration of the Modern Mind," said in a New York Times interview that so-called “digital natives,” a term for the generation that has grown up using computers, are already having a harder time reading social cues. “Even though young digital natives are very good with the tech skills, they are weak with the face-to-face human contact skills,” he said.

While many parents and educators fret that the ease of electronic communication may be making teens less interested in face-to-face communication with their friends, we think marketers and employers need to adjust their communications strategies for the crowdsourcing nature of today’s digital natives.

Will young people still be able to sell and communicate?

“Teaching new sales people how to ask good questions and how to listen and keep the intelligence gathering dialogue going in a face to face setting is an absolute ssential,” said Eric Wynne, President of Wynne Media Company in a recent panel discussion I moderated. “It doesn’t come naturally to many of them as they’ve been attuned to communicating by screen in a very truncated fashion.”

Molly Sargent, Principal of Professional Impressions Consulting concurred. “Younger sales people just haven’t been trained the right way. You can’t just do your due diligence on the Web. There’s more to researching a company than Google and Hoovers. They’re not trained in how to pick up the phone, how to ask those critical questions, how to find the internal champion, how to sleuth ahead of time before the call.

At the end of the day, people want to do business with people they like and trust. With all the new technology tools available for reaching, tracking and micro-targeting our prospects, let’s not forget the most important part of selling and marketing successfully -- human interaction.

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It’s Official. Internet Ad Revenue Surpasses Print

Keep your eye on digital video and rich media.

The tipping point has finally tipped. Marketers spent more on Web advertising in 2009 than they spent in magazines according to a new ZenithOptimedia report. Zenith researchers predict that online ad spending – now the third largest advertising medium – is rapidly closing ground on newspapers, too. Cynics will point out that online advertising revenue actually declined 3.4 percent in 2009, the first year-over-year falloff since 2002 and it would have been worse, had it not been for a record-setting $6.3 billion fourth quarter. But, the loss in ad spending across all media sectors was quite a bit worse -- 12.3 percent for the year and two percent for Q4.

For some perspective, consider that 2009 ad revenue at major magazines plunged to $19.5 billion (minus 17.5%), according to Publishers Information Bureau (PIB) data and PIB reports ad pages are down another 9.4 percent for the first quarter of 2010. Fortunately for publishers, a share of those missing ad dollars are “migrating” to publishers’ Web sites and other digital properties, but the media landscape has now changed to the point that the heady days of “buy or audience, let’s go have lunch” are barely visible in the rear-view mirror.

Keep your eye on digital video

The Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers recently reported that search ads posted a slight uptick from 2008, accounting for nearly half (47%) of all Internet ad spending. Display ad spending rose a similar amount. Revenues for online classifieds and e-mail advertising plummeted, but digital video ads climbed an astonishing 38 percent. Thanks mainly to search, display and video, eMarketer predicts that online ad spending will grow a healthy 5.5 percent this year, to $23.6 billion and will increase its share of the overall ad pie to 17.1 percent in 2012 from 12.6 percent today.

When it comes to online ads, it pays to get moving
Rich media ads outperform standard banner ads

If you use banner ads for marketing (or sell them to your clients), consider adding rich media to get more bang for your online buck. Here’s why. According to new findings from research firm eMarketer Web users were more than 2.6 times as likely to click on a rich media ad than they were on a static banner, and conversion rates were also up, by 198 percent, eMarketer said.

As we’ve mentioned numerous times in this blog, video is growing by leaps and bounds on the Web because consumers want to view a story rather than read it. It doesn’t matter whether you’re selling hammers, airline tickets or multi-million dollar enterprise resource planning software. You’ve got to show it to sell it.

Organic search results still generate 7 out of 8 clicks online

A recent Marketing Sherpa study shows conversions for organic (i.e. natural, unpaid) search results still outperform others. Why? Because researchers say prospects trust organic search results more than they trust paid, or guided-pay, search results. You can buy the space to reach target customers, but you can’t buy their trust. Like all entrée’s on the savvy marketer’s menu, paid search deserves a seat at the table. But if feel your diet is heavy on search just because it’s cheap, then you need to re-think your marketing strategy and overall value proposition.

Conversion Rates
Organic search*************7.2%
Shopping engine********6.6%
Pay per click*******5.0%
OVERALL************6.1%
Source: MarketingSherpa.com 2010

B2B sales pros increasingly turn to LinkedIn

Companies are relying more and more on their corporate Websites and social networking to bring in customers, according to new research from eMarketer. Social networking, while still gaining adoption at many organizations, recently passed direct mail and Webinars in terms of generating qualified leads for business and professional organizations. As of late March, social networking was closing in on live events and trade shows for lead generation.

The most effective social network for prospecting, says eMarketer, was LinkedIn, by a wide margin. The business-oriented site was rated 3.1 out of a possible 5, compared with ratings of 2.0 for blogs, 1.9 for Facebook and 1.8 for Twitter.

Research firm, Outsell sees it a little differently. A recent Outsell poll found that B2B marketers in the U.S. considered Facebook the most effective social media site, at 51 percent, followed by LinkedIn (45%) and Twitter (35%). That poll focused on effectiveness in general, not necessarily lead generation.

LinkedIn’s effectiveness in this area has translated into significant increases in usage. Nearly half of respondents (47.8%) told eMarketer they were using the site more for prospecting and research than they were a year ago. Around one-fifth of those polled were also upping their prospecting efforts on blogs (21.8%), Facebook (20.8%) and Twitter (17.3%) and one in 12 (8.4%) on YouTube.

January 2010 data from HubSpot showed nearly half (45%) of North American B2B companies using LinkedIn for marketing had acquired a customer through the site. Company blogs were effective for 43% of respondents, while 38% and 33%, respectively, got customers from Twitter and Facebook.

Macro-economy: cautious optimism becoming more optimistic than cautious

We’re not commenting on the overheated stock market today. More on that next week. Meanwhile, government data released Friday showed a nice increase in big ticket manufacturing items. Sales of new homes surged 27 percent in March. Despite persistent long-term (26+ weeks) unemployment, households are replacing cars, upgrading home furnishings and stocking up on gadgets. Many economists estimate that consumer spending — which makes up some 70 percent of American economic activity — jumped by four percent during the first three months of 2010, which was about twice as fast as the experts anticipated.

Our view is that month and months of pent up consumer and business demand will finally be unleashed sometime after mid-year. Technology companies are reporting strong sales and earnings. Intel (www.intel.com), reported its highest first-quarter revenue in history. Google (www.google.com) added about 800 jobs this year, and Amazon (www.amazon.com) has added 1,800. Manufacturing is slowly adding jobs. Retail sales surged 9.1 percent in March according to Thomson Reuters, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth. And U.S. exports are running about 15 percent ahead of last year, according to the Commerce Department.

OK. The wet blankets who compile The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index said their benchmark plunged to a preliminary level of 69.5 in April compared with 73.6 in March. But that’s better the record low of 55.3 back in November 2008. And the American “savings rate” (long considered an oxymoron) climbed during the recession but has recently fallen, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Economy.com. We view that as a sign of confidence, not recklessness.

Victor Ghassemi, sales manager for a Los Angeles Porsche dealership may have summed it up best in a New York Times interview today. “People get tired of holding on to their money, or just sitting at home and not doing anything,” he said. “People love to shop. And you take that privilege away from somebody, it lasts about a year. Eventually, people want to come back. They want to buy new merchandise, a new product, to make them feel really good about themselves.”

Victor, let’s hope you’re right and the economy keeps it in gear.

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Tipping Points: Digital Ad Spending to Top Print in 2010. Facebook Overtakes Google.

In digital economy, everything’s a commodity except ideas.

In today’s wired world, the most important economic competition is actually between you and your own imagination, wrote New York Times columnist, Thomas Friedman on Sunday. More on that in a minute.

Facebook Overtakes Google as most popular US Web site

Whether or not Facebook fits into your marketing plans, it’s important to note that the ubiquitous social network destination overtook Google as the nation’s most popular Web site according to a recent report by Hitwise. Checking Facebook accounted for more than seven percent of all Web visits, the report found. Studies show that the average American spends seven hours a month on the site and that 44 percent of all social sharing takes place on the platform. But as Online Metrics Insider pundit, Pat Lapointe recently noted, research from Keller Fay Group clearly shows that only about 10 percent of total word-of-mouth activity occurs online. Further, it establishes that in MOST categories (not all, but most), the online chatter is NOT representative of what is happening offline, at kitchen tables and office water coolers.

Digital advertising to eclipse print in 2010

While print advertising is expected to rebound slightly into positive territory, more and more signs are pointing to 2010 as the year that digital advertising officially surpasses print. Legacy media is one area that could certainly benefit from fresh ideas, or more to the point, executing on those fresh ideas. A new study from Outsell, a consulting and research group serving the information industry, recently released findings of its annual survey of over 1,000 U.S. advertisers and marketers. Altogether, U.S. advertisers and marketers plan to spend $368 billion in 2010, Outsell found -- up 1.2 percent from 2009. Within the 2010 figure, 32.5 percent ($119.6 billion) will go to digital, versus 30.3 percent ($111.5 billion) earmarked for print.

In another new study, Kantar Media found that print media in 2009 underperformed the entire industry as a whole, off 17.5% versus 12.3 percent, for the year and down 11.5% for the fourth quarter. B2B magazines particularly took it on the chin, down 26.2 percent for the year, versus a 16.6 percent for consumer magazines (which are down only three percent so far in 2010according to Media Industry Newsletter). As in previous years, print ad revenue declines will fall heaviest on newspapers -- with Outsell forecasting total ad revenues of $27 billion in 2010, down about eight percent from 2009. Outsell also sees revenue for print directories falling about eight percent to $11.6 billion. But it's not all bad news for print, as Outsell predicts a two percent increase in ad spending for magazines -- rising to $9.4 billion – reversing a several year long slump.

"The advertising recession began to ease in the final two months of 2009 and preliminary figures from the first quarter of 2010, when compared against the abyss of a year ago, indicate many sectors are experiencing growth," noted Jon Swallen, senior vice president of Research at Kantar Media in a company news release. As with other forecasters, Kantar says the best performing media category in 2009 was cable television -- losing just 1.4 percent for the entire year and up 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Network TV was down 7.6 percent for the year although it exceeded cable TV in the fourth quarter, up 4.1 percent.

Why ideas can’t be commoditized in the digital era

Today, just about everything is becoming a commodity, except imagination, except the ability to spark new ideas, New York Times pundit, Thomas Friedman notes: “If I get an idea, I can get a designer in Taiwan to design it. I can get a factory in China to product a prototype. I can get a factory in Viet Nam to mass manufacture it. I can use Amazon.com to handle fulfillment. I can use freelancer.com to find someone to my logo and manage my backroom. And I can do all of this at incredibly low prices.

The one thing that is not a commodity, and will never be is that spark of an idea. Thanks Thomas. That’s as true in 2010 as it was in 1910.

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Mixed Signals on Economy, Media Consumption Patterns

All mixed up with somewhere to go. The question for marketers is where and when to place their bets.

Internet, Web TV gain. Plus straight talk on tablets.
For those of you fond of marking “tipping points” in the American media psyche, consider adding this one: More Americans now get their news from the Internet than they do from newspapers or radio according to a survey of 2,200 adults nationwide by the Pew Internet and American Life Project. More on this in a minute.

Mixed economic indicators

Consumer spending increased for the fourth consecutive month, the government announced yesterday, and while the 0.5 percent increase was modest at best, it set the table for cautious optimism about Friday’s monthly jobs report. In January, employment reached its highest level in five years, with the measured unemployment rate falling below 10 percent for the first time since August. While myriad factors come into play in our complex economy, economists are ultimately waiting for improvement in the job market to boost both consumer and B2B spending.

That may be a challenge. The Conference Board’s widely watched Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in January, declined sharply in February. The CB Index now stands at 46.0 down from 56.5 in January (the Index is pegged to a 1985 benchmark of 100). Not only is a separate CB measure – the “Present Situation” Index at its lowest level in 27 years, but the Board found that almost half (43%) of gainfully employed workers are dissatisfied with their jobs. Further, they don’t see much relief from excessive workloads, reduced perks and paychecks and the pessimism that pervades many workplaces as a trap rather than a road to opportunity. And that’s never good for spending.

Survey: More Americans get news from the Internet than newspapers or radio

Not only are more American’s tuning into the Web as their go-to source of news, but three-fourths say they hear of news via e-mail or updates on social media sites and 61 percent say they get at least some of their news online. Compare that to 54 percent who told Pew Institute researchers they listen to a radio news program and 50 percent who say they read a national or local print newspaper. The Pew survey suggests social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter have made news a more participatory experience than ever before as 37 percent of online users said they've reported news, commented on a story or shared it on sites like Facebook and Twitter, the survey said.

And with all due respect to branding experts, most Americans say they use between two and five online news sources, and 65 percent said they don't have a single favorite Web site for news. That’s pretty telling when you consider that about one-third of the study respondents were OLDER than age 50. Can any medium still compete with the immediacy of the Web? Yep. Good ol’ TV. Television news still outpaces the Internet, with 78 percent of respondents saying they watch local news and 73 percent saying they view a national network or cable news channel like CNN, Fox News or MSNBC.

However, when you compare real-time, undistracted appointment viewing to the rising share of time shifted viewing and multi-tasking viewing, the gap really narrows (see study below):

Online TV viewing climbs

According to Nielsen Company’s online panel data of U.S. visitors to online TV sites in the last 30 days, Americans are consuming more and more video on TV, Web and Mobile according to the recent Nielsen A2/M2 Three Screen Report, but the broader usage patterns suggest that online video is a replacement of DVR use, or used by those who do not have immediate access to TV. TV network content online is used to catch up with programming, and not typically as a replacement for TV viewing, as results from the email survey showed.

Top reasons for watching TV shows on the Web
(ranked by percent of respondents who agree)
• 54% forgot to watch a specific episode when it aired on TV
• 47% are catching up on the current season of programming and missed past episodes
• 33% are catching up on a past season of a program before the next season
• 32% forgot to record a specific episode with their recording device when it aired

Source: The Nielsen Company http://en-us.nielsen.com

US ad spend down nearly 10 percent in 2009

Those were the few bright spots from a Nielsen Co. report on U.S. ad spending, in which overall revenues tanked more than nine percent or $11.6 billion to $117 billion last year. Nielsen says this continues the trend of six straight quarters of declining ad revenue. Bleak to be sure, but at least Q4 2009 ad spending was down just two percent year-over-year, “and that helped soften the full-year decline,” said Terrie Brennan, senior VP for new business development at The Nielsen Company in a company news release. “In fact, most of the top advertisers showed increased spending late in the year. These are encouraging signs for an ad market that’s still trying to stop the bleeding.” Before the fourth quarter rally, many forecasters had expected 2009 to come in closer to 15 percent lower than 2008, and ’08 wasn’t exactly a banner year, either.

A few sectors did show positive year-over-year growth: Cable television grew 14.8 percent and free-standing-insert coupons climbed nearly 12 percent in 2009 versus 2008. Internet advertising remained flat (+0.1%), but Nielsen’s Internet ad expenditures are pulled from the AdRelevance database and account for CPM-based, image-based advertising only. Nielsen data overlooks some pretty big revenue pots such as paid search advertising, text only, paid fee services, performance-based campaigns, sponsorships, barters, in-stream ("pre-rolls") players, messenger applications, partnership advertising, promotions and email campaigns, or house advertising activity.

As expected, most traditional media took big hits:
• Network TV - 9.9%
• Local Newspapers -10.4%
• National Newspapers – 13.7%
• National Magazines - 19.3%
• B2B - 32.7%
• Local Sunday Supplements -44.9%

Digital Shift in Marketing Budgets

According to a recent Econsultancy survey, conducted in association with ExactTarget of more than 1,000 marketers, the shift of marketing budgets from traditional channels to digital channels will continue to rise in 2010. Nearly half (46%) of companies plan to increase their marketing budgets in 2010, says the study, and two thirds (66%) will increase their investments in digital marketing channels. Only 13 percent of companies expect to decrease their budgets overall and only one in 25 (4%) plan to decrease their digital budgets.

Additional budgeting highlights:
• 70 percent of responding companies plan to increase their budgets for off-site social media (i.e. Facebook, Twitter)
• Only 17 percent of respondents are increasing their print media budgets, compared to 41 percent who are decreasing spending.
• More than half of companies plan to increase their budgets for mobile marketing(56%), email marketing (54%), and paid search (51%)

Summary findings can be found here


What Apple and other tablet need to learn about consumers

Finally, kudos to Forbes.com Senior Editor, Lee Gomes, for a poignant piece this week about the Apple iPad’s strengths and shortcomings. If you’re in the business of making – or marketing – technology solutions to consumers and business people, I recommend you read Lee’s piece on any device you choose. Click here

Whether or not you’re an Apple devotee, Gomes points to three key criteria for evaluating any new gadget you’re contemplating: (1) How much mental and physical energy is required to lug it around? (2) What’s the turn-on time? And (3) How do you talk to it?

The devices that continue to get the most usage (and consumer eyeballs) are compact and so light you don’t know you’ve got them on your person; they’re always on and they’re easy to type on or communicate with. In iPad’s case, Gomes says’ Apple’s batting one-for-three.

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iPad One Week Later

From tablet to tabloid, have we entered the Splinternet age? Newspaper readership down, even online, and 3 in 4 readers say they won’t pay the toll.

A week has passed since the Apple tablet hype-cycle hit full swing, we thought it would be a good time to catch our breath and take stock of what Steve Jobs’ latest product vision really is…could be….will be… and most importantly, won’t be when it’s officially available to consumers in March.

Let’s start with what the iPad won’t be. I won’t be a magic panacea to save the traditional media industry. Also, it won’t the single, indispensable, all-knowing electronic device that consumers carry around with them 24/7. And the iPad won’t be the amazing unifying technology that ties together all things Web.

“You ain’t strapping this thing to your shorts as you work out,” quipped David Pogue of the New York Times. “Will people really want to hold this device, other than on an airplane, while they watch TV and movies? However, the tablet might be the perfect breakfast table companion. You can control it with one hand and don’t have to fiddle with a keyboard.” Apple haters can also visit Gizmodo for an extensive look at “Things that Suck about the iPad”.

Is Apple’s tablet awesome? Wall Street Journal’s Walter Mossberg likened it to “holding the Internet in your hand,” and gave the tablet kudos for its affordability and generous battery life (see video for more). But, not everyone’s in love with the iPad, especially those whose business models must co-exist with it or fight against it in today’s era of co-opetition.

In a blog post late last week, Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) head, Randall Rothenberg, declared the new Apple tablet a threat to advertising and called it the technology industry’s latest attempt to "semi-privatize" the Web. Forrester Research analyst, Josh Bernoff, observed that all forms of media could become “gated intranets -- with significant implications for marketers, media and agencies."

Naysayers like Rothenberg have a problem with the iPad’s lack of support for Adobe Flash, a key technology for online display advertising. Many marketers and ad executives also cited the iPad's lack of Flash as a drawback. But, they welcomed the device's larger screen size which many think will kick start the long awaited explosion of mobile marketing. In case you missed it, Online Media Daily’s Mark Walsh provided a useful lens on how the iPad’s introduction will impact marketers and ad agency honchos.

While IAB’s Rothenberg argues for a "supply chain détent" in which device makers join together to adopt consistent standards that allow the advertising and marketing to flourish. Walsh opines that the problem with the Internet been too much ad inventory, not too little. Amen to that.

Blogger, David Koretz finds it hypocritical that “the proposed solution to publishers invading consumers' privacy is to have those very same publishers advertise to them about how to protect it.” Koretz thinks it’s ridiculous for publishers – who profit by selling user attention and user information -- to be tasked with protecting the privacy of those very same users.”

Forrester Research’s Bernoff, thinks new technologies like the iPad are dividing, rather than unifying the web: “each new device has its own ad networks, format, and technology. Each new social site has its login and many hide content from search engines.”

Bernoff and other observers lament that what historically made the Web (and Web marketing) magic was the fact that everything was in a compatible format. Using Any browser, any computer, any connection, you see pretty much the same thing. As Bernoff notes: “Now with iPhones, Androids, Kindles, Tablets, and TVs connecting to the Web, that's not true. Your site may not work right on these devices, especially if it includes flash or assumes mouse-based navigation. Apps that work on the iPhone don't work on the Android. Widgets for FiOS TV don't work anywhere else. Meanwhile, more and more of the interesting stuff on the Web is hidden behind a login and password. Major newspapers want to put more and more of their content behind a pay (or registered user) wall and even Facebook applications will not work anywhere else and Google can't search it.”

Blogger, Steve Woodruff, observed that the time it takes to go from “thought to output to audience engagement is so short now with new media development tools, that it makes sense to create ‘splintered’ media that will more optimally work for different audiences and platforms.”
A recent post from Dan Millbank pointed out that having one venue or medium for content never made any sense. “Think about watching TV on one channel or having to use an AT&T telephone for all communication,” wrote Millbank. “That's pretty much the way it was only 20 years ago. Options are good, freedom of choice is good. It's hard on publishers, but hey, get off your butts and publish to the channels if you want to be seen.”

Technology marketers should take seriously consumers like “Christopher” who commented on Bernoff’s “Splinternet” piece that “the threat of consumers voting with their dollar for ‘splinternet’-type devices/platforms is real. The proprietary platforms will be left behind as the collective mind and manpower of the incredibly fruitful open-source community continue to make generational leaps in tech and UI improvement. I really want a Kindle, but will probably go for the Sony Daily Edition reader because it's more open and plays well with others. I have to keep in mind that my dollars are votes for what I believe in. I hope others out there do that, too.”

A respondent named Andre fired a warning shot at advertisers and media owners in the wake of the Apple tablet’s introduction: “If content producers and advertisers think that consumers are going to download and/or install whatever is required to view their content, please think again. It will not happen. And even if it did, it will only create an unstable computing environment for users when all these apps start conflicting with one another.”

“Standards are great, but they can't make a 3-inch iPhone behave like a 12-inch computer,” quipped Bernoff. “Marketers are going to be living in many different interactive worlds. Standards will help, but when Apple, Facebook, and Google own platforms, you have to live in their environments if you like the audiences that use those platforms.”

Daily newspaper reading down to two in five adults, even online

Just as more and more daily newspapers are poised to follow Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and the New York Times into the paid content arena, a new Adweek Media/Harris Poll found that just two in five U.S. adults (43%) say they read a daily newspaper, either online or in print almost every day. Just over seven in ten Americans (72%) say they read one at least once a week while 81 percent read a daily newspaper at least once a month. One in ten adults (10%) say they never read a daily newspaper. Scary stuff. Harris survey is based on responses of 2,136 U.S. adults surveyed online between December 14 and 16, 2009 by Harris Interactive

One reason for the dying of the daily newspaper, says the report, is the aging of the daily readership. Almost two-thirds of those aged 55 and older say they still read a daily newspaper almost every day. The younger one is, however, the less often they read newspapers. But less than one quarter of those aged 18-34 say they read a newspaper almost every day while 17% in this age group say they never read a daily newspaper.

Declining readership habits on top of a prolonged advertising slump has pushed many newspapers to explore charging readers for all or some of their articles online. This model probably won’t fly as 77 percent of online adults said they would not be willing to pay anything to read a newspaper's content online. While some are willing to pay, only five percent would pay more than $10 a month.

We’re clearly in a time-shifting, 4-screen media environment (TV, Web, Mobile and Tablet) in which the reader/consumer/gamer is engaging with your offering (and brand) on their terms -- not yours. If you’re good, relevant and deliver on what you promise, then you’ll continue to make money and retain customers regardless of the delivery platform. If not, you’ll be punished at high speed and on multiple fronts.

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Get Ready for the Always Wired, Multi-Tasking, Short Attention Span Customer

Whether you’re in consumer or B2B, your future buyers will be history’s least patient, hardest to reach, time-shifting customer segment.

If it seems the kids in your life are seemingly tethered throughout their waking hours to some kind of electronic or multimedia device, you’re not alone. Experts say kids and teens (ages eight to 18) spend more than seven and a half hours a day with such devices, a full 60 minutes more per day than they did five years ago, according to a new study from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

What’s more, the Kaiser survey did not count the 90 minutes kids spend texting, or the half-hour they talk on their cell phones. And because so many kids and teens are multitasking — i.e. surfing the Internet while listening to music, or texting while watching a recent episode of iCarly they’ve just downloaded with a friend — they pack on average nearly 11 hours of media content into that seven and a half hours. The report is based on a survey of more than 2,000 students in grades 3 to 12 that was conducted from October 2008 to May 2009.

Even NBC and Conan O’Brien learned the hard way that his alleged late night fan base – the 18 to 34 age group, especially the 18-25’ers – is damningly hard to reach via conventional television. A Nielsen Media Research study showed that the late night time period is one of the peak hours for DVR playback viewing, with nearly eight percent of all playback taking place between 11 pm and 2 am. And as Bnet’s Catherine Taylor pointed out, almost three fourth’s (73%) of viewers of prime time dramas now regularly skip the commercials.

On average, young people spend about two hours a day consuming media on a mobile device, the Kaiser study found. They spend almost another hour on “old” content like television or music delivered through newer pathways like the Web site Hulu or iTunes. Youths now spend more time listening to or watching media on their cell phones, or playing games, than talking on them.

The Kaiser study found young people’s media consumption grew far more in the last five years than it did from 1999 to 2004, as sophisticated mobile technology like iPods and smart phones brought media access into teenagers’ pockets and beds. Researchers also noticed that heavy media use is associated with several negatives, including behavior problems, obesity and lower grades.

If there was any silver lining to the Kaiser report, it was that the heaviest media users reported spending a similar amount of time exercising as the light media users. Many say the current youth generation is woefully out of shape and devoid of fresh air, but at least it’s an across the board problem. And we’re not necessarily training an army of future brainiacs or software geniuses.

While most of the young people in the study got good grades, 47 percent of the heaviest media users — those who consumed at least 16 hours a day — had mostly C’s or lower, compared with 23 percent of those who typically consumed media three hours a day or less. The heaviest media users were also more likely than the lightest users to report that they were bored or sad, or that they got into trouble, did not get along well with their parents and were not happy at school.

It would have been nice if the Kaiser folks could have taken the research to the next level: Determine whether heavy media use causes problems, or whether troubled youths turn to heavy media use as an escape. The study found that young people used less media in homes that had rules prohibiting television during meals or in the bedroom, or with limits on media time.

When will ad dollars follow the eyeballs online?

The average American spends 34 percent of their time online, but advertisers only allocate 12 percent of their budgets to Internet marketing, according to Forrester Research’s latest interactive forecast. It’s hard to believe a demand gap this size still exists as we enter the second decade of the new millennium, but it’s true. What’s more, only three in five surveyed marketing execs said they’ll be boosting their interactive budgets in 2010.

For example, e-mail marketing generates an ROI of $43.62 for every dollar spent, according to The Direct Marketing Association, making it the top performing direct marketing medium. In second place, search marketing, which generates $21.85 for ever y dollar invested.

U.S. Magazines Lose a Quarter of Ad Pages in 2009

On top of TV’s woes, the print folks took it on the chin again last year. New data from Publishers Information Bureau (PIB) confirms it – American magazines were about 58,340 ad pages thinner (about 25 percent) than they were in 2008 and about one third thinner than they were at the start of the decade. According to PIB data, American consumer and trade magazines ran about 170,000 pages in 2009 compared to nearly 230,000 pages in 2008 and 238,000 in 2001 – the previous worst year on record when publishers lost 17.2 percent of their ad pages in the post 9/11 slump.

Media job picture

More than one-third of U.S. employees expect a raise in the next year and 65 percent believe they'll probably get at least part of the bonus they deserve, according to the Q4 Glassdoor.com Employment Confidence Survey.

However, optimism about the job market is tempered with fear: more employees (38 percent) think it is unlikely they'd be able to find a new job in six months than those who said it was likely (33 percent). A new survey by The Conference Board found less than half (45%) of U.S. workers lucky enough to have jobs in this economy are satisfied with their jobs, down from 61 percent in 1987, the first year the survey was done.

Experts say with fewer jobs available, more people than usual are staying in jobs they dislike or find unrewarding. Marketers take note: The Conference Board expects significant turnover once the jobless rate falls and workers feel free to release themselves from their current workplace constraints. It may come as no surprise that job security is at a two-decade low. Fewer than half of U.S. workers (47.4%) say they feel secure in their jobs, the lowest level since the Conference Board survey began in 1987. Now is a good time to make sure your employees are at least content, if not happy. When the black cloud over the employment market finally lifts (typically a year after the official end of the recession), we agree with Conference Board that there will be a massive increase in career exploration if not outright turnover.

Americans think their own jobs are pretty safe, though they worry about their cubemates: 20 percent of workers are concerned they may be laid off in the next six months but 40 percent are concerned that coworkers may get pink-slipped. As the rate of job losses slows nationwide, it’s not surprising that employees exhibit more confidence in their future job security and financial outlook, but the challenge will be reconciling employees’ rising expectations of returning to their previous pay level or ability to change jobs with the realities most companies are facing to get back on solid ground, Glassdoor.com career and workplace expert, said in a statement.

Highlights of Media Bistro’s new jobs report:

• There are more companies hiring for fewer positions. In 2007, the top 10 posters on mediabistro.com's board accounted for 19 percent of all postings; in 2009, those same companies accounted for just 8 percent of listings.

• Though there were fewer jobs posted in 2009 than 2008, some categories gained market share. Those are:
o PR, with a 22% gain in market share
o Marketing, with an 18% gain
o And online/new media, with a 15% gain.
The categories that fared worst were:
o TV, with a 19% decline in market share
o Teaching, with a 13 percent drop in 2009
o And magazine publishing, advertising, and graphic design, tied for a 9 percent drop in share.

Final thoughts on Consumer Electronic ShowFrom Media Post’s Aaron Barr: And, while the technology was impressive, several attendees were unsure that consumers were ready or willing to put 3-D in their homes. Some said vision problems hamper their ability to view 3-D images, while others complained about getting headaches after watching 3-D for too long. But perhaps the most cogent argument revolved around price. Considering -- as the Consumer Electronics Association has pointed out in its sales figures -- that many consumers have already upgraded their televisions from cathode tubes to flat screens at a premium, it may simply be too soon to expect them to shell out thousands of dollars more for another television set. But perhaps the most cogent argument revolved around price. Considering -- as the Consumer Electronics Association has pointed out in its sales figures -- that many consumers have already upgraded their televisions from cathode tubes to flat screens at a premium, it may simply be too soon to expect them to shell out thousands of dollars more for another television set.

Blogger Alan D.(“Newsosaur”) Mutter had a smart take on the future of tablet PCs. Click here to read

Summary: If you need to reach the younger audience, then you better wake up to the fact that they can’t be fooled easily, they won’t put up with repetitive or non-relevant messaging, and they’ll tell you what they want – you won’t be telling them. And guess what? The older demos are following the same pattern as well. Instead of stressing so much about how you’re going to spend your budget this year, think about how you’re going to create messaging that resonates with an increasingly fickle – an unforgiving -- customer base that has more choice than ever.

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Farewell and Good Riddance to the Decade of Disruption

‘A comedy of errors, except it wasn’t funny.’ Are days of free content over? Is there a reliable compass for B2B marketers?

As New York Jets coach, Rex Ryan quipped after his team’s painful blunder-filled November loss to Jacksonville: “It was a comedy of errors, but it wasn’t funny.” That summed up the year 2009 and the first decade of the new millennium for that matter. The decade started with the bursting of the .com bubble, followed by 9/11 terrorist attacks, several military quagmires in remote corners of the globe, a credit-fueled economic expansion that finally collapsed on itself and a painful unraveling of the U.S. economy whose wrath has not been seen since the Great Depression. More than one in 10 American workers are out of work (vs. four percent at the beginning of the decade), millions of homeowners face foreclosure and our homeland security still has major holes as evidenced by Christmas Day airline bombing plot in Detroit.

After record setting volatility in the U.S. financial markets, most major indices ended the decade slightly lower than they began it. The S&P 500 index for example, returned minus 0.8 percent on a 10-year annualized basis. While investors in U.S. equities didn’t really lose much on paper, they failed to keep pace with Treasury bills and the inflation rate, which is hardly worth the risk and anxiety they endured for their trouble.

Is there hope? Coach Ryan’s Jets miraculously found their bearings down the homestretch, flummoxed the odds makers and sneaked into the NFL playoffs. May the rest of us be so lucky in 2010.

“The mood is pretty optimistic in the way that you if you’re nearly killed in a car accident, you’ve got a renewed positive outlook on life,” Sunil Dhaliwal of Boston-based Battery Venture Partners told the New York Times this week.

One tough decade

“The oughts (the "uh-ohs"?) were a tough decade on a macro level, quipped blogger Seth Godin. “Front page news events will give the textbooks plenty to write about in the years to come. But on a micro level, on a personal level, this was a decade filled with opportunity. The Internet transformed our lives forever. Opportunities were created (and many were taken advantage of). And, like every decade, just about everyone missed it. Just about everyone hunkered down and did their job or did what they were told or did what they thought they were supposed to, and just about everyone got very little as a result.”
A December study by the Pew Research Center for The People & The Press, found few Americans have fond memories of the past decade. By roughly two-to-one, more say they have a generally negative rather than a generally positive impression of the past 10 years. This stands in stark contrast to the public's recollection of other decades in the past half-century. When asked to look back on the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, positive feelings outweigh negative in all cases.

Happy to put the 2000s behind them, most Americans are optimistic that the 2010s will be better. Nearly six in ten (59%) say they think the next decade will be better than the last for the country as a whole, though roughly a third (32%) think things will be worse. Just about every age group, except the Baby Boomers, is optimistic about the next decade.

Technology and social networking: friend or foe?

The majority of U.S. consumers see cell phones, the Internet and e-mail as changes for the better, and most also view specific changes such as handheld internet devices and online shopping as beneficial trends, according the Pew study. Most see increasing racial and ethnic diversity as a change for the better, as well as increased surveillance and security measures and the broader range of news and entertainment options.

The 2000-2009 era was clearly the decade of the Internet, or more accurately, the second-coming of the Web, after Web 1.0 was left for dead by the .com bust in the late 1990s. Media and information companies dodged a bullet in the late 1990s and smugly assumed that Web 2.0 would crash and burn the same way. Not this time cowboy. By the time conventional got its weapons locked and loaded against the new threat, the virtual gunslingers left town with bags and bags full of ad dollars.

About two-thirds of Americans (65%) say the Internet has been a change for the better, while just one in six (16%) say it has been a change for the worse; 11 percent say it hasn't made much difference while eight percent are unsure. This largely mirrors the balance of opinion at the close of the 1990s - the decade that saw the widespread adoption of the web.

The public is ambivalent when it comes to evaluating social networking sites such as Facebook. About a third (35%) call them a change for the better, 21 percent say they have been a change for the worse, while 31 percent say social networking sites have not made much of a difference and 12% are unsure. In fact, even among young people, fewer than half say social networking sites have been a change for the better. Tweet that!

Leveling the global playing field

But, for all its creative destruction, we think historians may look back at the 2000s as the “Level Playing Field Decade.” We became a truly global economy, and even as the U.S. slogged through the decade economically and militarily, China, India and Brazil enjoyed substantial increases in their respective living standards and closed the prosperity gap with the U.S. and Western Europe. Small groups of well trained insurgents can now slug it out toe-to-toe with the world’s major military powers, consumers are armed with better information and more power than ever, and anyone with an Internet connection and a compelling point of view can become a global media force. Oh, and there was that little election last year in which the world’s most powerful nation elected an ethnic minority member president by a fair-and-square vote of the populace.

Marketers: Are we in a recovery or a holding pattern?

If you’re a marketer still wrestling with your budget for next year, don’t look to the macro economy for guidance. You’ll get nothing but mixed signals. The financial markets were up over 20 percent in 2009 and that typically foreshadows an economic recovery. The number of new jobless claims is substantially lower than it was at this time a year ago and government stats say housing starts rose a surprising 8.9 percent in November after falling in October. But today, The National Association of Realtors announced that its index of pending home sales plummeted a whopping 16 percent in November. Go figure.

Despite the hints of an economic recovery, however, many Americans are still spending less. Forty two percent of Americans spent less on Holiday gifts in 2009 than they did in 2008 and only 10 percent spent more according to a December USA Today/Gallup Poll. Consumers have become accustomed to discounts. Three in five (62%) shoppers say they won’t buy an item unless it’s on sale, according to the Discover Card’s annual Holiday shopping survey.

Is the free content gravy train over?

For the better part of 10 years, consumers have been spoiled by a nearly unlimited supply of free news, pictures, consumer ratings, financial information, videos and music on the Internet. Now, there are growing signs that this free ride is drawing to a close as the ad-supported gravy train may be grinding to a halt. Newspapers, with their backs to the wall, aren’t going to be afraid to ask online readers to pay for at least some of what they offer, as a handful of papers, like The Wall Street Journal (Newscorp) and The Financial Times, already do. Experts expect many mass publications to take the “pay to read” plunge because they have few alternatives left. Just no one wants to make the first move.

NewsCorp CEO, Rupert Murdoch, has talked about forming a partnership with a single search engine, which would pay him for the rights to scour the news and entertainment programming produced by his company, rather than letting all search engines crawl his sites. Also Hulu, which is owned partly by NewsCorp, is considering charging viewers to watch some of the TV shows it now streams free.

Magazine publishers, not the most courageous bunch historically, are making noise about teaming up to create a partially gated or freemium article cooperative in which they can sell enhanced versions of what they have been giving away for years. And more and more media companies are planning to charge for apps on iPhones and other mobile devices, as well as on the Amazon Kindle and other e-readers.

Inflection point reached?

“Content providers are trying to put the toothpaste back into the tube, but only partially,” said Alan D. Mutter, a media consultant and blogger. “So we’re looking at some sort of an inflection point, at least in attitude. But I haven’t seen much realistic, hard-headed thinking about how that’s going to happen, so I don’t know how much is really going to change.”

“Quality content is not free,” Mr. Murdoch opined in The Wall Street Journal on Dec. 8, days after delivering a similar message at a Federal Trade Commission workshop. “In the future, good journalism will depend on the ability of a news organization to attract customers by providing news and information they are willing to pay for.”

Media gurus argue that charging online will work only if consumers were offered a much-improved product with the convenience of access anywhere, on any digital device, which is sort of what the magazine consortium has in mind. Jay Rosen, media blogger and journalism prof at New York University disagrees. “People who really think we have to charge or the industry is sunk would be more persuasive if they said at the same time we have to add more value than we’ve been adding,” he said.

Whether you’re a marketer or a media organization, you have more competition from corners of the economy than ever before as the Web continues to break down barriers to entry. Competitors also include your customers/subscribers and sometimes your advertisers/vendors. Size and brand alone will no longer insulate you from the competition. But agility, high value content, finely tuned audience reach and great marketing execution will not only keep you in the game, but will enable you to charge premium prices for your offerings.

Sunday night, the New York Jets convinced 80,000 customers it was worth paying top dollar to cheer them in single digit weather in a decrepit stadium when they could have watched from the warmth and safety of their own living rooms. And the Jets delivered when they had their backs to the wall. So you can you.

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Saving is cool again. Is that bad news for marketers?

If you’re smart, agile, integrated and niche-focused, we like your chances. Thought leader predictions for 2010.

No doubt about it. Americans are starting to save more. In October, they saved a whopping 4.4 percent of their disposable income, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. To put that into perspective, that’s almost double the average annual savings rate of 2.7 percent for the past 10 years. The rate dipped to near zero at several points in recent years, according to a story last week in the Wall Street Journal and many economists expect the savings rate to increase further from here.
Whether you call it pragmatism, fear, or the reverse consumer confidence index, U.S. consumers and businesses are hording more of their cash than they have in a long time and that has profound implications for marketers.

Experts say the economy is on the mend from the worst recession in half a century. But many say businesses of all kinds are skeptical that American consumers will return to their spendthrift ways anytime soon. They see consumers emerging from the brutal economic climate with a new mind-set: careful, practical, more socially conscious and less prone to ostentatiousness.

“Much as the 1930s shaped the spending habits of an entire generation, many companies now anticipate a shift in consumer behavior that persists even after jobs and growth get back closer to normal,” the Journal said. John Quelch, a Harvard marketing professor, thinks Americans will discover more cost-effective ways to live, and those coping mechanisms become engrained.

We don’t agree.

While consumers and business purchasing managers are scrutinizing every expense they possibly can, we think the “new normal” will return to the “historical normal.” That means American consumers – the world’s savviest shoppers and best-trained bargain hunters – will unleash a torrent of pent up demand as they start to see fewer foreclosure signs in their neighborhoods, more folks back to work and their 401k’s start to show signs of sanity. And that will trickle down to business in every sector.


Why smart marketers will win

This is where smart marketing comes in, especially if you have a medium to long-range sales cycle. You can forget about sitting back and taking orders when the “all clear” signal emerges from the U.S. economy. By then it will be too late. Competitors who get the business are the ones who have been steadfastly marketing and adapting throughout the downturn, keeping both the brand awareness and demand generation spigots reasonably on stay top of mind with their customers and prospects.

Marketing predictions for 2010

We’ll share ours with you next week. In the mean time, George Simpson of Online Media Daily had these pearls from his panel of experts. Click for full article

• “2010 will be the year of data-driven TV -- which will come of age in 2010 -- will only extend that dominance."
• “Brand dollars will accelerate their shift to online, driven by the scale of professional online video content and the rise of technologies that enable real-time demographic targeting."
• “Agencies will become more active and skilled in acquiring audiences through data partners -- separate from their purchase of media."
• "In 2010, advertisers will figure out that they can significantly boost campaigns by augmenting with innovative mobile phone and social networking solutions that more fully engage consumers."
• "The shift of ad dollars from standard display ads to social marketing programs that deliver engagement will be most notable as marketers shift focus from clicks to engagement and from CPM and CPC to cost per engagement metrics."
• "The marketplace will realize that the market for conversions relies on retargeting, which everyone does, leaving lots of people scratching their heads with 'OK, now what do we do to move real dollars online from brand marketers?'"
• "The subscription model for content will re-emerge as a viable business, because content publishers are having trouble standing on paid ads alone."
• "It will be the year of the niche. Mass is dead. A focus on being nimble and resourceful are the keys to winning in 2010."

Stay true to your brand and stay smart, focused, agile, integrated and niche-focused. More easily said than done in 2010. But if your continued to market throught the downturn and who got your new media experimentation out of the way when your rivals went into budgetary hibernation mode are going to win. And your're going to win big.

Study: Ad Spending Plans Returning to Pre-Recession Levels

But, consumers tightfisted as Cyber Monday fails to rescue a bleak Black Friday. Is a prolonged ‘saving spree’ on the horizon? Google CEO defends practices vs. newspaper industry and online video surges.

Ad executives are more optimistic about their budgets than at any time in the past two years according to new research from Advertiser Perceptions Inc., a media industry research firm that tracks the long-term confidence of advertisers and agency media-buying executives. The Ad Perceptions index currently stands at a positive four percentage points, its highest level since the autumn of 2007, when the index stood at positive eight percentage points.

The most recent survey, fielded in November, shows that ad spending sentiment is now improving for every medium tracked, even for some traditional media such as newspapers, magazines and broadcast, which continue to have an overall negative index. The outlook for most electronic media, especially online and mobile media, is well in the positive range and also continues to improve.

The positive index for all digital media - both online and mobile - went from 40 percentage points in the spring 2009 survey to 55 percentage points in the just-completed fall survey. The positive index for cable TV jumped to 11 percentage points from one percentage point last spring. Traditional media are still in negative territory, but improving, researchers said. For example, broadcast television stood at minus eight percent; magazines at minus 19 percent and local newspapers at minus 35 percent. Bleak readings, bit significantly on the mend from the last time they had their temperatures checked.

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece earlier this week, Google CEO said the Internet wasn’t destroying the news industry as much as forcing adoption of a more efficient business model. Borrowing from Rupert Murdoch, Schmidt wrote: “It's understandable to look to find someone else to blame. But it is complacency caused by past monopolies, not technology, that has been the real threat to the news industry.“

From Black Friday to Cyber Monday consumers cautious this Holiday season

Online shopping sites reported a surge in sales and traffic on CyberMonday (the first Monday after Thanksgiving), surpassing the tepid results achieved by bricks-and-mortar retailers so far this Holiday season. Online shoppers spent 11 percent more than they did a year ago, according to CoreMetrics a Web analytics company that tracks online shopping behavior in the U.S. But the average size of each purchase was down 14 percent from last year. Researchers say this indicates that Web merchants are facing the same bargain-hunting/comparison shopping consumer mindset that traditional retailers have faced so far.

Despite today’s drop in the official national unemployment rate, which was the first improvement in the jobless rate in 24 months, “the U.S. consumer is still too depressed to buy us a quick end to the recession,” laments Forbes columnist A. Gary Shilling in this week’s issue. “Consumers have no choice but to begin a decade-long saving spree as depressed home prices and high unemployment rates are temporing their willingness to take on debt of any kind – if they can even get it -- from personal credit cards to home equity lines.

Is the job market really coming back? Click here for a fairly well balanced range of opinions from Wall Street Journal online discussion

Online shopping may account for 10 percent of Holiday shopping this year, up from five percent to seven percent in previous years according to Forrester Research, which indicated the shift to online shopping, fueled by deal seekers in a recession, may come at the expense of traditional stores later in the Holiday season. It’s also important to note that a heavy shopper turnout at this time of year does not necessarily translate into heavy sales. Last year, Black Friday and Cyber Monday traffic hit record levels but the 2008 Holiday retail season was one of the worst in decades according to a New York Times report earlier this week.

If you sensed it was even more crowded than normal at your local mall over Thanksgiving weekend, you’re not alone. According to the National Retail Foundation (NRF), some 195 million consumers visited U.S. stores and Web sites last weekend, up from 172 million the previous year, but the average spend dropped to $347 from $372 the NRF said as “shoppers can continue to expect retailers to focus on low prices and bargains throughout December.

Media royalty was fed by advertising until Google blew that game apart

In case you missed it, David Carr’s thought-provoking piece “The Fall and Rise of Media” in MOnday's New York Times is worth a quick read. Instead of just another piece bashing traditional media, Carr neatly dissects traditional media’s appeal for ambitious young people, its surprising ability to extend its lifecycle beyond its logical expiration date, and how it is currently dealing with its long overdue day of reckoning. Rather than blaming Google, Facebook and Craig’s list for finally fixing an unaccountable advertising economy that “was built on inefficiency and excess, Carr points to a new future “which is not a bad deal if your ignore all the collateral gore.” Ambitious young people will still flock to Manhattan to remake world, Carr quips -- “they just won’t be stopping by the human resource department of Conde Nast to begin their ascent.” For every kid he sees wandering the entrance of the media world looking for an entrance that has long since closed, he sees another kid “who is a bundle of ideas, energy and technological mastery, who is not just knocking on doors but seeking to knock them down.”

Viewing of Online Video Streams Up 26 percent in October

The Nielsen Company today reported overall online video usage and top online brands ranked by video streams for October 2009. Year-over-year, unique viewers, total streams, streams per viewer and time per viewer were up, led by a 26 percent growth in total streams.

October 2009 vs October 2008

Unique Viewers**********138.6M (+14.8%)
Total Streams**************11.2B (+26.2%)
Streams per Viewer********81.0 (+ 9.9%)
Time per Viewer (min) 212.5 (+ 23.8%)
Source: The Nielsen Company

In a related note, Nielsen announced Tuesday that it would start counting online television viewership in its overall rating measurement for which an estimated $70 billion in ad spending is predicated. More next week.

From where we sit, it looks like the 2010 media buying climate will be in lockstop with the 2009 Holiday shopping season – a great deal of bargain hunting and comparison shopping with few long-term commitments and a lot of second-guessing. Measurable value will trump fancy packaging and there will be buyers’ remorse aplenty.

Key to the Future? Managing the Unknowable

Turkey day food for thought. Microsoft search deal with Newscorp could backfire. TV still relevant. 2010 marketing budgets show signs of life.

It’s no secret the Web’s explosive growth has been driven by the principle of the open playing field. Using collaboration and open source tools, the small guys can take on the behomoths by using their smarts, speed and savvy. But Microsoft, arguable lacking several of the aforementioned S’s, wants to use its muscle to tilt the playing field in its favor if a proposed deal with News Corporation comes to pass.

In case you missed it, Microsoft is in discussions with News Corp to remove links to its news content from Google’s search engine and display links exclusively on Microsoft’s ambitious new Bing search engine. Web pundits think this kind of a deal could induce major media and tech companies to start choosing one over the other which is about as good for consumers as the cable tv model is. Even worse, this scenario creates a whole new set of hoops for Web users to navigate.

According to Comscore, Bing has gained about 10 percent of the search market in its first year – an impressive showing, but still miles behind Google which handles about two thirds (65%) of the total U.S. search queries performed. Yahoo, ranked second (`19%), has lost about 10 percent of its market share since Bing entered the scene.

While we salute Microsoft’s aggressiveness and its aspirations to break up the Google-opoly on the Web, we side with the experts who say the Internet historically favors players who share tools and information, rather than building barriers to it. If there’s any positive outcome to the latest Miscrosoft initiative it will be that all the major search players will have to continue to improve their offerings in order to hold on to their market share.

Marketing budgets claw back to life

Despite the budgetary carnage inflicted upon marketers in 2009, nearly 40 percent of the 376 marketers surveyed by BtoB magazine plan to increase spending next year. Almost half plan to keep budgets steady and only one in eight (13%) plan to cut them next year. Of course, what marketers report in surveys differs greatly from how they actually open their wallets it’s an optimistic sign nonetheless. It’s no surprise that online marketing will continue to siphon off dollars from traditional media with e-mail marketing, search, social media, video and Webcasts garnering the largest increases. Researchers say customer acquisition (and marketing on the cheap) will continue to be dominant drivers of the B2B marketing landscape as measuring ROI will get a lot more attention than branding for at least another year. We’re betting that when the economy finally rebounds in late 2010 or early 2011, marketers will continue to give online the seat it deserves at the table – because they see its wholistic merits, not because it’s cheap.
Click here for more stats and analysis from BtoB.

Thriving in era of uncertainty

If you get a chance over this long Holiday weekend, check out Howard Sherman’s piece in BtoB: “When Uncertainty Is Normal”. Howard’s take is that business has never been more complicated, demanding or high stakes. To succeed in marketing and in business operations, companies will need skills their top dogs aren’t always comfortable with: “collaborative thinking by smart people.”

You need to help clients/customers accept ambiguity. You need to adhere to a nimble framework. You need to restore internal relationships, especially if your organization has dramatically downsized or restructured and rebuild trust with all of your stakeholders including customers, investors and prospects. Right on, Howard.

Research confirms: TV still draws audience

A new survey by Nielsen Company says that despite the Internet, iPhones, twitter and facebook, we’re actually watching more television not less – an average of 4 hrs and 49 minute/day for average American, up 20% from a decade ago (4:06). Nielsen says U.S. TV viewers broke another record -- increasing their consumption last year. The media research company said U.S. viewers watched 4 hours and 49 minutes of TV per day for the 2008-2009 season -- when looking at live viewing plus seven days of DVR playback.

That's up four minutes -- or 1.4 percent -- from the previous season. Why the rise? Nielsen says the gain came from more television sets in homes and more channels available for U.S. viewers. In addition, DVRs have increased the overall TV usage total: live and playback. It also appears that viewership improvements came in non-prime-time dayparts.

So if you're still agonizing about how to budget for 2010, just expect the unexpected and Strategically Stumble(tm) through it faster than your rivals.

Ad Accountability for Print Media?

Magazines borrow page from online media as page shakeout continues. Facebook as crime solving tool. Google acquisition should jumpstart mobile advertising category.

We’re not sure whether to put this under the “innovation” or “desperation” column, but Monday, The Week magazine announced is was guaranteeing advertisers that their ads will generate higher “recall” scores in The Week than they will in most other magazines in which they run. How? The Week has enlisted the help of Vista from Affinity, who will measure ad recall based on how consumers in its focus groups remember seeing a certain ad in the magazines where it runs. The Week guarantees an ad will score in the top one-third of all magazines where it runs or The Week will run free ad pages for the advertiser until it gets to the benchmark. The program is only reserved for regular 12x advertisers, but Steven Kotok, president of The Week, expected 80 percent of its clients to qualify. We salute The Week’s efforts to bring more accountability to the beleaguered print category and expect many more publishers to follow suit in 2010.

Ad pages drop sharply at Conde Nast

You don’t need the geniuses from McKinsey & Company to tell you it’s a lousy year for print media. Make that a lousy decade. Just days after Hachette Filipacchi Media U.S. announced that Metropolitan Home will be shuttered with its December issue (see below), Conde Nast announced this week that its 2009 pages are in, and it won’t be the merriest of office Christmas Parties high above Times Square for those who remain employed there. Ad pages are down by one-third for the year as more than 8,400 pages evaporated from it normally luxurious ledger. The company closed popular titles Portfolio, Gourmet and Modern Bride as well as Cookie and Elegant Bride and survivors who depend on purveyors of luxury goods took significant hits: Architectural Digest lost half (49.9%) of its ad pages; W lost 46 percent and Conde Nast Traveler lost 41 percent according to company data released to the media. On average, ad pages fell 27.6 percent industry wide for the first nine months of 2009 according to the Publishers Information Bureau. Branding will take you only so far in tough time and once again, print advertising becomes a luxury, not a core necessity, when times are tough and you can’t measure its direct effectiveness to pull customers into your stores.

Obituary announced for MetHome

Another acclaimed aspirational consumer magazine will cease publication in December. Hachette Filipacchi Media U.S. announced that Metropolitan Home will be shuttered with its December issue, citing a lousy housing market and cuts in discretionary income for home renovations. Ad pages were down nearly 36 percent year-over-year, about the same as Gourmet’s, another popular magazine shuttered last month by Conde Nast. No plans announced about Met Home’s Web site. This recession has been particular unkind to the shelter magazine category and has forced the closing of House & Garden, Domino, Southern Accents, Cottage Living, In Style, O at Home and Country Home.

Facebook saves accused from perp walk

With more and more people revealing details of their private lives online – from the banal to the shocking – a potentially useful but unintended application of popular social network sites like Facebook, MySpaceand Twitter may be emerging. Crime-solving. A NYC teen, Rodney Bradford posted a seemingly meaningless post on Oct. 17 at 11:49 a.m. asking where his pancakes were. One of millions of banal, time-wasting posts that day until Bradford, 19, was arrested the next day as a suspect in an armed robbery at the housing project where he lives. Those words became his alibi. The entry, made at approximately the same time as the robbery. The New York District Attorney subpoenaed Facebook to verify that Bradford’s words had been typed from a computer at the apartment where he lives with his father. When that was confirmed, the charges were dropped. While social networking sites has been used as prosecutorial evidence in cases ranging from cyber-bullying to armed robbery and murder, legal experts believe it’s the first time such sites have been used as alibi evidence. Because of how ubiquitous social networking sites have become, we expect them to have a role in increasingly more cases as their user demographics tend to mirror the prime ages of those committing violent crimes, teens and young adults.
Social Media Update

Tweeting your company to the top of the search results

According to Internet Marketing Report (IMR), doing more with Twitter could help your company reach prospects who don’t actively “tweet” or even know what that means. IMR says all the search engines plan to include Twitter updates in their search results. Google plans to add tweets in its search result that may gain from real-time observations. The Bing search engine is planning to add posts from Twitter and Facebook.

Measuring success of marketing campaigns:
• 77% of marketers say new customers acquired
• 73% say the number of new leads
• 67% say net increase in sales
• 29% say increase in purchase intent
• 22% say increase in purchase intent
• 21% say changes in “perceptual attributes”
Source: eMarketer.com, October 2009 study

Blogs, e-mail and Web site optimization most economical sources of leads. But watch PPC.
New research from Hubspot.com finds online channels deliver qualified sales leads for significantly less money than telemarketing, trade shows and direct mail. While Blogs, e-mail and Web site optimization (SEO) scored high on “relative cost per lead”, what caught our attention was that one third (32%) of marketers surveyed by Hubspot said pay-per-click (PPC) was also a relatively expensive way to acquire leads. More on that in future issues.

Relative cost per lead by channel
% of marketers who said “below average cost”

Blogs/social media *****************55%
E-mail marketing**************49%
SEO*********************48%
Direct Mail *********34%
PPC*************32%
Telemarketing **29%
Trade Shows**18
Source: Hubspot.com

Economy

So what’s up with the stock market? The economy can’t get out of first gear. Unemployment’s at the highest level in 27 years. The dollar’s sinking like a stone and the stock market keeps going up. At last glance, The Dow closed the week at nearly 10,200, up more than 16 percent for the year and the S&P closed over 1,100, up more than 20 percent for the year.

Oddly, the same problem that worries many investors over the longer term is what encourages some for the short term: a soft economy. The reason is that an ailing economy requires the Federal Reserve to keep its short-term interest-rate targets near zero and continue pumping billions of dollars into the financial system. That is great for stocks because much of that money eventually finds its way into financial markets, and because cheap money keeps financing costs low and pushes corporate profits higher. Worries about whether government intervention would be enough to keep the economy growing have been one of the reasons behind the series of volatile up and down swings in late October and early November.
*** For a great take on the “Jobless Recovery” check out University of Chicago professor, Casey Mulligan’s blog on Economix.

Google acquisition of startup could jumpstart mobile ad category

Monday Google announced it has agreed to acquire mobile advertising startup AdMob for $750 million in stock. AdMob, whose clients include P&G, Adidas and Land Rover, is a leading seller of banner ads on iPhone apps and Web pages that can be retrieved from mobile phones. This deal will probably cement the viability of the much hyped mobile advertising business….still in its nascent stages at $160 million (source: Kelsey Group), less than one percent of the $23 billion in online ads in 2008 according to Internet Advertising Bureau.

While most of the mobile ads so far have been delivered by text message. Experts point to the growing popularity of the iPhone and other popular mobile devices, the ads will become more engaging and widespread. Analysts say Google already has an edge on its rivals Microsoft and Yahoo when it comes to ads linked to search queries via mobile. Expect Microsoft and Yahoo to look for deals with other mobile ad providers like JumpTap, Millenial Media and Quattro Wireless.

For advertising to work as we head into the second decade of the new millennium, it’s got to be measurable and prove it works. That said, the burden for accountability is a two way street. Publishers and Web site operators have to work more closely with their media partners to understand their marketing objectives, not meet monthly page or banner inventory quotas. On the flip side, marketers and their agencies need to do a better job of understanding their media partners’ audience, editorial tone and pulse. E-mailing generic spreadsheets or RFPs to media partners with 24 hours’ notice to get them done is not how great advertising or marketing gets done. And when it comes time to reconcile the success or failure of a campaign, both sides need real metrics, not self-serving “ad recall” surveys or click-based McMetrics to show ROI.

Let’s be a lot smarter, less greedy and more patient next decade.

First Generation in History in Which Kids Are Smarter Than Parents

Gaming now part of the information paradigm shift at work, home and school. Spike in agency reviews point to ad spending turnaround and need for fresh thinking.

“This is the first generation in recorded history in which the kids are smarter than their parents,” said Tom Hood, CPA, a popular blogger and new media professor who led a poignant social networking panel discussion I attended last week. “They’re way ahead of us in terms of digital technology, interactive media and collaboration.”

While the younger generation doesn’t have the personal spending power or corporate budget influence of its elders, the wired generation is influencing spending decisions (and driving rapid adoption) of anything related to technology, media consumption and social networking. If you market anything that touches a U.S. household or workplace with people under age 30 on the premises, then you better think about ways to market to AND THROUGH the younger generation.

My fifth grader does his school reports in PowerPoint, saves them to a pen drive, turns the device in to his teacher who inserts it into her classroom PC and displays the assignment on a chalk-free SmartBoard for all his classmates to critique. My first grader is an active “MMOGer” (massively multiplayer online gamer) interacting after school each day with virtual peers on Club Penguin, a 12-million member online community containing a range of Web based games and activities in which players user cartoon penguins as avatars, waddle around, chat, play mini-games and participate in other activities with one another in a snow-covered virtual world. Both kids and their pals have taught themselves to use Mom’s digital SLR camera to shoot YouTube videos of their sports and car racing exploits, complete with music, slow motion and title credits. I’m staying out of it, mildly amused. But when the ads start rolling in, I’m insisting on taking a cut to pay for “studio rental” time.

My kids also got their hands on my clunky standard-issue cell phone during a long car trip. Turns out it has a camera, video recorder and app for downloading games and music. Who knew? Like me, they wouldn’t be caught dead reading the manual. Unlike me, they have the patience and intuition to experiment with mysterious looking buttons on the side of the phone and don’t get frustrated when it fails to do what one expects it to do. They still can’t do anything about the spotty voice service, but to this generation, a cell phone is a multi-media toy that happens to have voice capabilities. It’s not a semi-reliable mobile communication tool that we view it as. They also don’t have to deal with the new charges showing up in my monthly bill – yet.

Unlike the games their older siblings grew up with, today’s educational games tend to be online and social, allowing kids to interact and collaborate to achieve common goals. As the New York Times reported last week, the newest educational games, unlike the stand-alone boxed games of the 1990s, are set up like services in which children can enter a virtual world, try on a character and solve problems that may relate to the real world. Newer games work concepts of math, science and language into the actual game mechanics, instead of stopping for something that feels like schoolwork.

For another take on responsible online destinations for kids, check out Fifty P where kids can get real-life lessons on financial literacy and savings plans without stern lectures about the value of money from their elders.

Marketing to the short attention, time-shifting consumer

The debate rages on about whether or not humans can truly perform simultaneous mental processes, but we’re multi-tasking more than any previous generation and there’s no sign of turning back. A recent University of Melbourne study found that people who use the Web at work for personal use are actually nine percent MORE productive, not less, than those who don’t.

If you’re in marketing, you better get used to increasingly shorter attention spans and you’ll have to work harder than ever to reach those targets in a three-screen time shifting world.

Economy

The recession is technically over, stock markets are up double-digits for the year and the Fed yesterday promised not to raise its rock bottom interest rates for an “extended period.” What’s more, the government last week said the economy grew 3.5percent in the third quarter, its first quarterly expansion in a year. Unfortunately, experts says economic growth will remain “weak for a time” as the jobless rate surpasses the 10 percent barrier for the first time in 27 years and retailers brace for a Grinch-like Holiday shopping season. With both consumers and corporations in extended “wait and see” mode, media partners should expect short term, opportunistic ad spending flurries, but no sustained uptrend that you can take to the bank.

Media

U.S. ad spending fell 15.4 percent in the first half of 2009, according to Nielsen Company data with online advertising the only sector expected to record positive growth for the year -- a projected 9.2. percent to $54.1 billion, according to Zenith Optimedia research. All other media are shrinking, notes Zenith in a recent report (PDF) “Most are shrinking at around the market average rate, but newspapers and magazines are in steep decline: we forecast newspaper ad expenditure to fall 17 percent this year, and magazine ad expenditure to shrink 20 percent. In both cases this is a particularly severe example of a longer-term trend; these media have been in decline since 2007, and we expect them to remain in decline for the rest of our forecast period.”

Despite print media’s long-term struggles, signs are emerging that the painful advertising slump of the past two years may finally be easing. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that a long list of major marketers, including UPS, Unilever, US Army, General Motors, Yum Brands and Emirates Airlines, are seeking overtures from new advertising firms. According to the Journal, when the online shoe retailer Zappos.com invited pitches for its small account earlier this year, more than 100 ad agencies submitted credentials.

"Clearly we are seeing the beginnings of an ad recovery. The volume of ad reviews is way up," Russell Wohlwerth, principal of Ark Advisors, a consulting firm that matches ad firms with marketers, told the Journal. But over the past few years, the process of searching for a new advertising or media-buying firm has dramatically changed. About 80 percent of reviews now include procurement departments, up from 30 percent to 40 percent about five years ago, consultants say. And decisions are being made in the conference room not the golf course.

For nation’s newspapers print circulation plummets, but Web visits up

New figures released last week by the Audit Bureau of Circulation showed double-digit circulation drops for 22 of the nation’s top 25 papers amid an industry-wide decline of 10.6 percent for the six months ended September 30. At just 44 million copies, U.S. daily papers sold fewer editions than at any time since the 1940s. Industry execs say part of the readership loss is self-imposed. By that they mean rising manufacturing costs and dropping ad revenue has forced them to cut “unprofitable circulation” which in industry parlance refers to those with bad credit, low incomes, intermittent subscriptions and readers who live in outlying areas. But, few will argue that the Web has siphoned off millions of print readers and advertising dollars. Newspaper Web sites are updated more frequently than their ink-stained brethren. Web papers don’t arrive wet, late or tattered and by and large they’re free. This year, newspaper Web sites have had more than 72 million unique visitors, up 20 percent from 60 million in 2007 according to Nielsen Online reports for the Newspaper Association. We see this trend continuing on an exponential

The younger generation thrives on collaboration, speed and entertainment, said blogger Tom Hood.

If you’re in marketing, particularly B2B, then keep in mind the fact that “Young people may be new to the world of work, but their bosses are immigrants to the world of the Web.”

Look to gaming if you want to win the game.

Recession Over, Or Are We Just Sick of Hearing About It?

Unemployment flirting with 10 percent, but Dow eclipses 10K, Google ads and Goldman bonuses flying high and ABC show about horny ‘cougars’ rejects big ad buy about same topic.

As we alluded to in our last rant here, most people’s outlook on the state of the U.S. economy depends on whether or not you’re working. With interest rates historically low, deals galore on the retail and housing fronts and the financial markets up over 20 percent this year, you’ve got pretty good buying power if you’re lucky enough to have a job. If you’re out of work -- like more able-bodied Americans are than at any time in a quarter century, then things aren’t looking too rosy.

Employers are mired in a long-term hiring and capital investment freeze. More homeowners than ever are underwater on the mortgages and/or not keeping current with their payments. New companies, or new divisions of existing aren’t being formed to create new jobs. Older workers are afraid to leave the workforce due to insecurity over their retirement accounts and that’s clogging up the normal payroll succession plan as millions of energetic new college graduates can’t get a foot in the door.

The challenge for today’s marketers is to resonate with all sectors of your customer base, regardless of what life circumstances they’re encountering, and that means a one-size fits all global branding campaign may not do the trick.
So, how are global marketers responding? They’re tapping into that “less worse than last year” psychology and slowly reinvesting in their brands.
Stephanie Clifford of the NY Times had a nice take on this phenomenon the other day,

“It may be a sign that the recession is ending, or it may be a sign that consumers are sick of hearing about it,” quipped NY Times columnist, Stephanie Clifford last week. “While economists and investors study housing starts and gross domestic product predictions to measure economic vibrancy, General Electric (“The American renewal is happening right now”), Bank of America (“America. Growing stronger every day”), Levi’s (“Pioneers! O Pioneers!”) and other companies are using commercials to proclaim that America’s future is bright. And that may be something of a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Let’s hope she’s right. As Brand Union/WPP’s Robert Scalea told Clifford: “Marketing is always a reflection of societal values, and many times, for smarter marketers, it’s a driver of them.”

Google vs. Dow as bellwether of the ad economy

On Thursday, Google reported better than expected Q3 financial results – 27 percent increase in net income -- on the strength of its ad sales program. CEO, Eric Schmidt declared the worst of the recession over and that Google was embarking on a new phase of investment, hiring and acquisitions. Many analysts contend that Google’s results are closely correlated with online spending – one of the few bright spots in the advertising sector --- and are likely to be trumpeted across many sectors of the industry.

“We’re seeing double-digit increases in budgets for 2010 from our clients,” Bryan Wiener, head of digital agency 360i {www.360i.com} told The New York Times last week.

How will you read magazines in 10 years?

From Conde Nast to McGraw Hill to the Economist Group, it’s clear that the cash cow of print-based, high-ticket, hard-to-measure, brand advertising has been slaughtered. Conde shuttered four titles, including the much-admired Gourmet. Bloomberg LLP snagged Business Week for next to nothing and Economist Group’s editorially poignant, but ad-challenged CFO still can’t get a date to the buyout prom.

Is that finally it for the magazine medium? We think not. Magazines will continue to be relevant, but how we engage in them may be changed forever. Over the next decade, three in five “readers” of magazines won’t be interacting with their favorite titles in dead-tree form, according to a recent survey of nearly 400 Wall Street Journal readers. Nearly 30 percent said they’d be reading online; another 20 percent said they’d be reading via E-reader or mobile device and nearly one in 10 said they wouldn’t be reading at all.
If print media is a key component of your marketing mix, then you better take notice.
How will you read magazines in 10 years?

PRINT*********42%
ONLINE********29%
E-READER******17%
PHONE**********3%
I WON’T********9%
Source: Wall Street Journal

Said one respondent to the WSJ survey: “Unfortunately the selection for how we will read magazines in the future is too simplistic. If wise, publishers will realize that that are creating content and can deliver it in different forms, print, online, phone e-reader and not as magazines but as articles, so that if I am interested in food, I can read a gourmet article from ‘gourmet magazine’ which as a magazine of today's format need not exist.” Brother, you got that right.

Are these TV people for real?

David Letterman, the curmudgeonly late night talk show host for CBS and product Worldwide (Can’t Keep it in My) Pants, gets exposed for running a broadcast equivalent of the Wall Street Boom-Boom run in his offices and gets an instant ratings boost. Jay Leno, who was supposed to be dead in the water in prime time is far exceeding rating expectations. For a fraction of what it costs to put on a prime time drama, Leno is helping NBC rake in the profits by re-reading local newspaper headlines, quizzing airhead LA pedestrians about current events and challenging B-list celebs to simulate slow-speed car chases on a Burbank studio parking lost. And it works. So to all the cable shows about house-flipping, home makeovers and savvy real-estate investing at a time when record numbers of Americans are in foreclosure or underwater on their mortgages. Then there’s Cougar Town, ABC’s popular new Courtney Cox sitcom about spurned 40-something women prowling for 20-something studly men. More than seven million viewers are tuning in each week and apparently the has enough ad dough in the pipeline to turn down a huge proposed media buy from a Web site for real-life cougars on the grounds of decency concerns.

We’re not passing ethical judgment here. We’re just pointing out that the mood has lightened up enough in this country so that support for these shows, and the vicarious thrills they provide, may point to hopes of better times ahead.

Conclusion

As a Miami University professor noted in the aforementioned Stephanie Clifford piece: “The truth is, we want to believe they’re right. Deep down inside, even skeptics want to be hopeful” in these times.