You Have to Hit it Full Throttle This Summer

While gathering around the barbecue with a cold beverage in hand this Holiday weekend, take a few moments to enjoy your good fortune. The weather is warm. You can swim outside in most parts of the country and week by week, month by month, the good news is outpacing the bad news.

According to a recent Business Confidence Survey by Insperity, small business owners are showing a willingness to hire more employees amid signs of expanding business activity.

·         More than 40 percent of the nearly 5,000 respondents said they are adding employees, up from 28 percent last October;

·         55 percent are maintaining current staffing levels, versus 63 percent last fall;

·         Only 5 percent are laying off employees, down from 9 percent in October and

·         28 percent think an economic rebound is currently in process versus 20 percent last fall.

Here’s what’s worrisome about this otherwise optimistic report; nearly three in four business owners STILL aren’t convinced that the economy’s on the mend. What else do you want?  A memo from the Commerce Department declaring, “Recession Officially Over—OK to Start Making Decisions”? Don’t hold your breath.

Financial markets are at historical highs, housing prices are at their loftiest level in 3-1/2 years, interest rates are at their lowest levels since most business owners have been alive and domestic business travel is up 5 percent over last year and above the all-time high reached in 2007 (Source: US Travel Association). That’s not enough for you?

Not only has economic rebound been “in process” for at least two years, it may be fading into the rear view mirror. When you think (and really feel) that everything’s fine, it’s usually too late. Your toughest competitors are way ahead of you anyway.

Sure the economy leads the list of short-term concerns for 62 percent of business owners, while government health care reform, and rising health care costs, are tied for second on the list at 51 percent, followed by hiring the right people, at 42 percent. Yet almost the same number (59 percent) expect sales to increase and 85 percent expect to maintain or increase employee compensation.

An Oxford Economics study found that companies that invested the most in business travel during the recession have grown faster than those that cut back on travel. Same goes for those that invested in marketing, product development, business development and hiring. You’ve got to keep your foot on the gas at all times and keep the pipeline full.

Macro View

Despite all the noise and confusion coming out of Washington (and the IRS), home prices rose to the highest level in three and a half years in April—up 11 percent over the same period last year. It was the fifth consecutive month of double-digit gains according to the National Association of Realtors. We were even more encouraged by this stat—the median time on market declined to 46 days from 62 days the previous month--which means properties are selling more quickly and inventory is shrinking.

Conclusion

As Seneca the ancient Roman philosopher once quipped. “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Whether it’s war, business, sports or courtship, nothing’s really changed that much in 2,000 years. Have a great barbecue this weekend and rest up. Summer’s the time to hit it full throttle. Waiting till after Labor Day to make decisions, isn’t going to cut it anymore.

Tags: National Association of Realtors, Insperity, Oxford Economics, US Travel Association

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State of the Union, GOP debates, economy and B2B

Things suck less than before. Housing over-supply and jobless claims dropping. Travel industry improving. Holidays sparked double-digit surge in tablets, e-readers.

Last night’s GOP debate from Tampa was supposed to be about the private sector’s ability to create jobs that Big Government hasn’t been able to generate the past three years. Instead it came down to two rich guys competing to see who paid more taxes on money they may or may not have earned fair and square through actual “work.”

Gingrich compared himself to Reagan, calling himself "exactly the kind of bold, tough leader" that Americans want, "someone who is prepared to be controversial when necessary." Romney cited his record in running the Salt Lake City Olympics and said Gingrich "had to resign in disgrace" as House speaker after an ethics controversy, a characterization Gingrich disputed. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, when given a chance to get a word in edgewise, showed they’re smart, thoughtful and experienced. They’re probably too intelligent for the average American voter to get and not well enough funded (or well-connected enough) to stay with the leaders till the finish line. Too bad. But’s it’s nice to see common sense and modesty has made it to the Final Four.

In tonight’s State of the Union address, the Prez will undoubtedly point to great strides his administration has made since he took over the train wreck that was the U.S. economy in 2009. There’s certainly been progress, but how much can be attributed to policies put in place vs. how much has come from the natural corrections a free market economy allows. Housing and excessive private debt, the two biggest scourges of the recession, he'll likely say are finally showing signs of improving. Even cantankerous NY Times columnist, Paul Krugman, was upbeat in his NY Times column yesterday “Is Our Economy Healing?”

But you could also argue that the historical rate of home ownership in the U.S. has been about 60 percent of American households. We got near 70 percent just before the housing bubble burst and are still painfully regressing to the historical mean. Should we be fighting the law of averages or setting better home-ownership policies down the road?

In tonight’s address, we’ll surely hear talk about fixing income inequality, but we’re more concerned here about technology inequality. The Holidays sparked a huge gain in U.S. in ownership of tablets, e-readers. And, the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Report released yesterday said the share of adults who owned table computers nearly doubled overnight to 19 percent from 10 percent in November. The boost in tablet ownership was especially high among college educated folks earning over $75K per year. We suspect the rate of cutting edge technology ownership and systems is also tilted in favor of large business vs. small businesses.

Our take: Whether you’re a B2B marketer, business owner or media outlet, you absolutely must take this mobile data into consideration before you get too far down the road with your 2012 strategy. If you don’t have the budget for mobile and related-platforms, find a way to make it fit.

Jobless claims down

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits for the first time plummeted last week to 352,000, the fewest since April 2008, the Labor Department said. But is that real progress or are companies finally realizing they can’t continue to operate indefinitely with staffs stretched too thin, disgruntled and fatigued?

Separately, the government said consumer prices were unchanged last month, the latest sign that inflation remains tame. Lower gasoline prices offset rising costs for food, medical care and housing. The Federal Reserve projects consumer price inflation will fall from about 2.8 percent in 2011 to roughly 1.7 percent this year. That’s progress, but is it enough to spike a surge in demand?

Travel industry bouncing back

The travel and tourism industry has added about 224,000 jobs since reaching its low point in December 2009 according to the US Travel Association. Meanwhile, hotel occupancy reached 59.8 percent in 2011 (projected to hit 61 percent in 2012), up from 54.6 percent in 2009, according to Smith Travel Research. And the Bureau of Transportation Statistics said full-time jobs in the airline industry finally began to improve last year after 28 consecutive months of decline. No one enjoys flying anymore. It’s a cattle call for most budget conscious consumers and a horrific time drain for most business travelers, but people still need to meet and press the flesh to close business and preserve relationships (whether of the business and familial kind).

Conclusion

Whether you’re a glass half-full or glass half-empty type of person, indicators keep showing that more of your favorite beverage is in the glass than when the current Administration took over. We don’t take sides for any political debate, so you’ll have to decide for yourself whether the private sector can keep the small engine of momentum running by itself, or will it need a continuous helping hand from the government? As we’ve said many times before, things are never as bad as they seem when times are lousy—just as they’re never as idyllic as they seem when we’re flush with cash, customers and back orders (or waiting lists) for our services.

If nothing else, now is the time to hit the gas on your marketing, hiring and expansion plans, before the tsunami of pent up demand leaves you in its wake.

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