Is Modern Technology Overrated?

We know it’s not cool to suggest that the tech revolution is overhyped. But, that’s how many professionals feel sometimes regardless of age.

I just spent two days unplugged from the grid over the long weekend. No email. No texting. No downloads from the cloud. Guess what? The world didn’t end. It was actually pretty liberating. I used a landline phone with no problem. I took some notes with a pencil and paper and actually looked at a paper map while driving and made all the right turns without GPS, Siri, or the reassuring voice of an anonymous female voice with her fake British accent. And when I returned, my email inbox was full, but no excessively.

I’m no Luddite. It’s just my patience wears when all the new tech tools and gadgets supposedly making my life easier don’t work—or constantly need upgrading. Sometimes it’s just easier to use your brain in an ad hoc fashion than let technology solve your problems.

Real world examples

I frantically finished an essential piece of work Friday afternoon, diligently saved to my hard drive, cloud and external drive. I prepared to shut down the computer for the long weekend when I got the infamous warning that essential upgrades were needed on my PC--27 in all—“Don’t shut down or turn off your machine.”

Finally out of the office, already late, I had a small auto malfunction. No big deal except I accidently accepted an app upgrade on my Smartphone while trying to get AAA roadside assistance. It took 30 minutes for the upgrades to load—which meant 30 minutes I couldn’t call, email or text for help or let me family know where I was or what was going on.

Then I had to find directions to my niece’s out of state wedding at an obscure bed and breakfast on the New England coast line….Mapquest, Google Maps etc. kept forcing me to GPS connect to all the local hotels, restaurants and gas stations in the area, when all I really wanted was turn by turn directions. The Smart security alarm in my home malfunctioned while I was away, so the fire department apparently came by for a midnight false alarm. I didn’t score any points with my neighbors for that won and it cost me $250 to boot.

Is tech really making us better off?

As Times columnist Paul Krugman observed yesterday, the new technologies are “more fun than fundamental. Information technologies that excites the Twittering classes may not be a big deal or the economy as a whole.” What’s more, “the new technologies have yielded great headlines but modest economic results,” continued Krugman. And they aren’t really making us more productive, just more wired, he implied.

While computers, artificial intelligence and robo advisors are creeping into our lives more and more each day, there are certain things that the pliable, creative human brain can do that machines simply can’t. Robert Shiller, the renowned economist and Yale professor, noted the other day we need to teach students to outsmart robots. In other words, we need to make education more “business focused” and teach about the “creative entrepreneurial process that presumably computers cannot duplicate.

Many of you are financial advisors, attorneys or CPAs. Let machines and other technologies handle the repetitive, low-margin, uncreative aspects of your work and free up your brain for the high margin, creative solutions that your clients expect from you.

Conclusion

As our client Gary Klaben of Chicago-based Coyle Financial Advisors noted in a blog post that we helped him with last fall, “Use each competitive threat as motivation to “up your game” and further refine your target market and the value you provide to your clients—and your clients’ heirs.”  Also see Derek Markham’s post for more Overrated Technologies and Their Overlooked Alternatives.

Our blog has more, as does the FREE Resources page of our website.

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2015 Prediction? Be ready for anything—and don’t stop getting ready

At a family dinner over the Holidays, my father in law leaned in to me and said, “Hank, you’re a blogger. You have access to a lot of research and smart people. What’s your big prediction for 2015?"

Now my father in law’s going to be 95 in March, but he reads 3 or 4 newspapers cover to cover every day. He constantly analyzes his investments, and is still active in local politics. He’s sharp as a tack and I wasn’t going to get off easily with an off-the-cuff prognostication.

I said, Dad. “I don’t really know.” “Why not?” he grumbled.

I said, “it seems everything’s just more volatile than it used to be. The good stuff gets better at an increasingly better rate (think stock market, low-oil prices, improving job market) and the bad stuff gets worse at an increasingly depressing rate (depressingly low interest rates for savers, a global economic slowdown, record number of working age people out of the  official workforce, global warming, currency devaluation, Ebola, ISIS, cyber terrorism, etc.).” Even worse, sometimes the good stuff is what causes the bad stuff, I explained.

“Hmm,” he muttered, taking a painfully long pull from of his wine glass. I braced for the worst, hoping that a less-informed family member at the table would jump into the conversation with a suicidal comment that he’d quickly dissect and dismiss with a sardonic chuckle. Most of the time someone pulls through for me, but no such luck on this day. “OK,” he said. “Nice analysis, but what’s your opinion.”

I thought I had just given my opinion, but my father in law come of age during all night bull sessions in college and the corporate and military command and control era. A member of the Depression Era silent generation, he was a Fortune 500 exec, a Navy man and a chemical engineer. Each direct question requires a direct answer in his world view. Ambiguity and the knowledge sharing/link-and-tweet economy is an enigma to him. He assumes anyone with a byline is obligated to have a singular clear-cut opinion about something.

But that’s my point. There are just too many variables in the equation. By the time you have your strategy and game plan together, the playing field has changed. YOU HAVE TO BE READY 24/7/365 to change on a dime. As we’ve mentioned many times before in this blog, the winners are not necessarily the strongest or the fastest, they’re the ones who are the smartest and most agile.

Doesn’t matter if you’re in sports, business, the military, agriculture, the arts or any other human endeavor. You’ve got to be agile. You’ve got to be good at partnering, collaborating and sharing your knowledge. To that end, here are some excellent quick reads on the subject that came across our radar this week….

Justin Wolfers -- From Unemployment to Oil: The Big Unknowns of 2015
Thomas Friedman -- Is Vacation Over?
Paul Krugman -- Tidings of Comfort

Conclusion

As Steve Jobs liked to say, “Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish.”  Let’s have a great 2015. There are going to be some lows and some highs, with lots of roller coaster rides along the way. Let’s enjoy the trip and get after it!

Best, HB and team

Our blog has more, as does the FREE Resources page of our website.

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State of the Union, GOP debates, economy and B2B

Things suck less than before. Housing over-supply and jobless claims dropping. Travel industry improving. Holidays sparked double-digit surge in tablets, e-readers.

Last night’s GOP debate from Tampa was supposed to be about the private sector’s ability to create jobs that Big Government hasn’t been able to generate the past three years. Instead it came down to two rich guys competing to see who paid more taxes on money they may or may not have earned fair and square through actual “work.”

Gingrich compared himself to Reagan, calling himself "exactly the kind of bold, tough leader" that Americans want, "someone who is prepared to be controversial when necessary." Romney cited his record in running the Salt Lake City Olympics and said Gingrich "had to resign in disgrace" as House speaker after an ethics controversy, a characterization Gingrich disputed. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, when given a chance to get a word in edgewise, showed they’re smart, thoughtful and experienced. They’re probably too intelligent for the average American voter to get and not well enough funded (or well-connected enough) to stay with the leaders till the finish line. Too bad. But’s it’s nice to see common sense and modesty has made it to the Final Four.

In tonight’s State of the Union address, the Prez will undoubtedly point to great strides his administration has made since he took over the train wreck that was the U.S. economy in 2009. There’s certainly been progress, but how much can be attributed to policies put in place vs. how much has come from the natural corrections a free market economy allows. Housing and excessive private debt, the two biggest scourges of the recession, he'll likely say are finally showing signs of improving. Even cantankerous NY Times columnist, Paul Krugman, was upbeat in his NY Times column yesterday “Is Our Economy Healing?”

But you could also argue that the historical rate of home ownership in the U.S. has been about 60 percent of American households. We got near 70 percent just before the housing bubble burst and are still painfully regressing to the historical mean. Should we be fighting the law of averages or setting better home-ownership policies down the road?

In tonight’s address, we’ll surely hear talk about fixing income inequality, but we’re more concerned here about technology inequality. The Holidays sparked a huge gain in U.S. in ownership of tablets, e-readers. And, the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Report released yesterday said the share of adults who owned table computers nearly doubled overnight to 19 percent from 10 percent in November. The boost in tablet ownership was especially high among college educated folks earning over $75K per year. We suspect the rate of cutting edge technology ownership and systems is also tilted in favor of large business vs. small businesses.

Our take: Whether you’re a B2B marketer, business owner or media outlet, you absolutely must take this mobile data into consideration before you get too far down the road with your 2012 strategy. If you don’t have the budget for mobile and related-platforms, find a way to make it fit.

Jobless claims down

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits for the first time plummeted last week to 352,000, the fewest since April 2008, the Labor Department said. But is that real progress or are companies finally realizing they can’t continue to operate indefinitely with staffs stretched too thin, disgruntled and fatigued?

Separately, the government said consumer prices were unchanged last month, the latest sign that inflation remains tame. Lower gasoline prices offset rising costs for food, medical care and housing. The Federal Reserve projects consumer price inflation will fall from about 2.8 percent in 2011 to roughly 1.7 percent this year. That’s progress, but is it enough to spike a surge in demand?

Travel industry bouncing back

The travel and tourism industry has added about 224,000 jobs since reaching its low point in December 2009 according to the US Travel Association. Meanwhile, hotel occupancy reached 59.8 percent in 2011 (projected to hit 61 percent in 2012), up from 54.6 percent in 2009, according to Smith Travel Research. And the Bureau of Transportation Statistics said full-time jobs in the airline industry finally began to improve last year after 28 consecutive months of decline. No one enjoys flying anymore. It’s a cattle call for most budget conscious consumers and a horrific time drain for most business travelers, but people still need to meet and press the flesh to close business and preserve relationships (whether of the business and familial kind).

Conclusion

Whether you’re a glass half-full or glass half-empty type of person, indicators keep showing that more of your favorite beverage is in the glass than when the current Administration took over. We don’t take sides for any political debate, so you’ll have to decide for yourself whether the private sector can keep the small engine of momentum running by itself, or will it need a continuous helping hand from the government? As we’ve said many times before, things are never as bad as they seem when times are lousy—just as they’re never as idyllic as they seem when we’re flush with cash, customers and back orders (or waiting lists) for our services.

If nothing else, now is the time to hit the gas on your marketing, hiring and expansion plans, before the tsunami of pent up demand leaves you in its wake.

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