2015 Prediction? Be ready for anything—and don’t stop getting ready

At a family dinner over the Holidays, my father in law leaned in to me and said, “Hank, you’re a blogger. You have access to a lot of research and smart people. What’s your big prediction for 2015?"

Now my father in law’s going to be 95 in March, but he reads 3 or 4 newspapers cover to cover every day. He constantly analyzes his investments, and is still active in local politics. He’s sharp as a tack and I wasn’t going to get off easily with an off-the-cuff prognostication.

I said, Dad. “I don’t really know.” “Why not?” he grumbled.

I said, “it seems everything’s just more volatile than it used to be. The good stuff gets better at an increasingly better rate (think stock market, low-oil prices, improving job market) and the bad stuff gets worse at an increasingly depressing rate (depressingly low interest rates for savers, a global economic slowdown, record number of working age people out of the  official workforce, global warming, currency devaluation, Ebola, ISIS, cyber terrorism, etc.).” Even worse, sometimes the good stuff is what causes the bad stuff, I explained.

“Hmm,” he muttered, taking a painfully long pull from of his wine glass. I braced for the worst, hoping that a less-informed family member at the table would jump into the conversation with a suicidal comment that he’d quickly dissect and dismiss with a sardonic chuckle. Most of the time someone pulls through for me, but no such luck on this day. “OK,” he said. “Nice analysis, but what’s your opinion.”

I thought I had just given my opinion, but my father in law come of age during all night bull sessions in college and the corporate and military command and control era. A member of the Depression Era silent generation, he was a Fortune 500 exec, a Navy man and a chemical engineer. Each direct question requires a direct answer in his world view. Ambiguity and the knowledge sharing/link-and-tweet economy is an enigma to him. He assumes anyone with a byline is obligated to have a singular clear-cut opinion about something.

But that’s my point. There are just too many variables in the equation. By the time you have your strategy and game plan together, the playing field has changed. YOU HAVE TO BE READY 24/7/365 to change on a dime. As we’ve mentioned many times before in this blog, the winners are not necessarily the strongest or the fastest, they’re the ones who are the smartest and most agile.

Doesn’t matter if you’re in sports, business, the military, agriculture, the arts or any other human endeavor. You’ve got to be agile. You’ve got to be good at partnering, collaborating and sharing your knowledge. To that end, here are some excellent quick reads on the subject that came across our radar this week….

Justin Wolfers -- From Unemployment to Oil: The Big Unknowns of 2015
Thomas Friedman -- Is Vacation Over?
Paul Krugman -- Tidings of Comfort

Conclusion

As Steve Jobs liked to say, “Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish.”  Let’s have a great 2015. There are going to be some lows and some highs, with lots of roller coaster rides along the way. Let’s enjoy the trip and get after it!

Best, HB and team

Our blog has more, as does the FREE Resources page of our website.

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A great time to be self-motivated. Are you up for it?

If you think you’ve been making more and more important decisions on your own these days, you’re not alone. From your 401(k), to your healthcare, to the clients your retain, to where and how you live, work and worship, we live in an increasingly self-directed world.

As Thomas Friedman (The World Is Flat), noted in an op-ed piece today, “something really big happened in the world’s wiring in the last decade, but it was obscured by the financial crisis and post-9/11.” Thanks to social media, 4G, iProducts, broadband, wireless, the cloud,  Big Data, Skype and apps, we’re now more connected than ever, Friedman observes, so there are more ways for people to “start stuff, collaborate on stuff, learn stuff, make stuff (and destroy stuff) with more people than ever before.”

Friedman and others have noted that if you’re self-motivated, it’s a great time to be alive. Many of the barriers that used to slow you down are gone, but a lot more responsibility rests on you. A big, company, firm, union, or government isn’t there to hold your hand as much anymore.

Warning shot to those ‘mailing it in’

“But, if you’re not self-motivated, this world will be a challenge, because the walls, ceilings and floors that protected people are also disappearing,” observed Friedman.

Now most of you on this distribution list are among the most highly motivated, highly creative, highly caffeinated people we know. If not, you would have opted-out a long time ago and that’s why we love you.

Our blog and the conclusion to this post has more.

Macro View

Whether or not you think the market’s run into record territory is sustainable, we’re starting to see signs of real support (not because there’s nowhere else for investors to put their money). Average single family home prices rose 9.3 percent in February, their fastest rate in almost seven years according to the S&P/Case Shiller index yesterday. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said Monday that consumer spending rose another 0.2 percent in March, following a 1 percent increase in the January to February period. Personal income and after-tax income also rose in March. Experts say higher incomes are helping to offset the end of the two-year (2%) Social Security tax holiday on workers’ paychecks. What’s more, this week’s stock market rise has been fueled by tech companies, which had been laggards earlier in the year due to investor concern over weak business spending and concerns over sluggish overseas sales.

Conclusion

While many businesses, economists and market watchers are waiting for a rebound from this slow growth economy, we see today’s environment as the new normal. There are still big opportunities in a slow-growth economy, and the winners will be those firms who can increase their margins, not necessarily their topline revenue or billings. While others see threats, danger, disintermediation and loss of turf in this self-directed world, you see opportunity. No single firm, company or product really owns the marketplace anymore--and if they do, they don’t get to own it for long. Celebrate your agility, not your lack of resources.

It’s on you now. Don’t ever take your foot off the accelerator. Just stay focused and keep your eyes on the road at all times.

Tags: Thomas Friedman, The World Is Flat, S&P/Case Shiller index, 4G, iProducts, broadband, wireless, the cloud,  Big Data, Skype and apps

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Burnout Redux and the Brain Drain
9 key signs you (or a key employee) could be in the danger zone

Happy Monday. Our recent post about professional burnout obviously touched a nerve. Thanks again for your great comments, even those of you disagreed with us.

As New York Times columnist, Thomas Friedman opined yesterday: “The truth is, if you want a decent job that will lead to a decent life today you have to work harder, regularly reinvent yourself, obtain at least some form post-secondary education and make sure you’re engaged in lifelong learning.” In other words, you’re going to have to max out your career goals every day just to keep up with the pack.

Our friend Gavin Pommernelle, President of Darien, Conn.-based HR Talent Driven Value, said “The sad thing is that [burnout] is more and more common now and the loner in the office is getting more company--except that they are all just as stressed. This is partly due to much leaner organizations and people doing everything to protect their jobs.”

Blogger and futurist Seth Godin posted Saturday that it is “sad to think” that the only reason you work is because you get paid to do it. “Now that you've got a skillset and trust and leverage and a following and the tools to make something happen, are you going to invest your heart and soul into something that's important or waste it selling something you're not proud of?”

You also have to factor in the importance of interaction with others. As Pommernelle noted, “Not having time to interrelate with others outside of the day to day role, both socially and professionally, actually hurts your current and future career.”


9 Key Signs of Burnout

Suzanne Burger, Psy.D. points to 9 red flags that signal you or a key employee might be in the burnout danger zone:

1. A continual increase in job responsibilities, either without a raise, or beyond your ability to comfortably manage.
2. Having to put on too many faces for too many different people.
3. Working under a micromanaging boss
4. Chronic, repetitive, boring work- a job that requires little thought and creativity, one that rarely changes, and offers little challenge.
5. Required to work long hours to complete your tasks, frequently working more than 40 hour weeks.
6. Feeling "stuck" in a job or career that is not your ideal job or career.
7. Having a long history of loyalty to a company, but without receiving expected promotions or raises.
8. Being consumed by your job, so that your job goes home with you. You may even fall asleep thinking about work and have little or no outside life.
9. Being forced to work under an oppressive environment, either with difficult or harassing co-workers, or under strict company rules, or strict managers.

Conclusion

While Berger’s “red flags” are designed for the overwhelmed worker, take a moment to consider how many of your key staffers are treading dangerously close to the burnout zone. In this economy, it just takes one well-timed call from a recruiter when they’re having a bad day to convince them to jump ship….and all the smarts and know-how they’ve built up over the years often goes out the door with them.

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TAGS: Gavin Pommernelle, Talent Driven Value, Thomas Friedman, Seth Godin, Suzanne Berger

Thriving in a SOCIAL ‘Vucu’ Climate for B2B Marketers

Forget the markets and employment numbers. 10-year forecast might be easier to make than a one-week call

“I could probably make a 10-year forecast easier than a one-week forecast,” quipped Rod Smythe, Chief Investment Strategist of Riverfront Investment Group at a high-end wealth management conference we attended on Tuesday.

Whether it’s the financial markets, the job market, pro sports or even the weather, we’re in an incredibly volatile time and this era of uncertainty is wreaking havoc on our collective psychology. Smart B2B marketers will stay focused on their long-term goals without panicking or chasing the next fad. Just be ready for a lot more VUCU. We’ll get to what vucu means in a minute. In the long run, we’ll get through this and in many respects we’re already there. Say what?

Just two weeks ago, I was swimming in Long Island Sound on an unseasonably warm October day. Stocks were plummeting as the U.S. seemed destined for a double-dip recession and Greece and other Euro Zone players were headed for a sure default on their debt.

How quickly things change. Monday I was trick-or-treating in the snow with my kids here in the Northeast. Stocks are back to break-even for the year and have risen significantly as economic data suggests we’ve fended off the threat of a Euro Zone meltdown, a double-dip recession, and stronger than expected corporate earnings. China’s hyper-growth economy (and inflation risk) slowing and last week’s GDP results showing 2.5 percent annualized growth in Q3, our strongest effort in a year.

So, while personal income is falling, consumer spending has risen at a 2.4 percent annual rate–three times faster than Q3 according to the latest government stats. Despite a persistently high percent unemployment rate, confidence may be returning. Credit card debt is inching higher, sales of cars and major appliances are rebounding and consumers are hording a lot less in their savings accounts (again).

Living in a vucu world

We’re living in a “vucu” world, said Dana Anderson, a Kraft Foods marketing VP who was widely quoted at last week’s Association of National Advertisers conference in Phoenix which attracted a record 1,700 attendees.

Not familiar with Vucu? It stands for volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous which is going to require a new set of skills she said. Marketers and advertisers will need learn from experimentation, and be open to intuitive, rather than rational solutions to problems.

OUR TAKE: Amen to that, but much easier said than done. True, tough times call for bold steps and recessions have historically fostered some of the greatest innovations. But, when millions of salaried media workers are scared to death of losing their jobs, the risk of a failure pinned to one’s performance review is a stronger deterrent than usual.

Business spending hot, hiring is not

According to the Commerce Department, business increased their capital investments at a 17.4 percent annual rate. Economists say business spending has been strong throughout the recession, an optimistic sign because investment in factories, offices, equipment and software is often a run up to hiring.

And from a micro-perspective, the office building in which we work was less than half full when we moved in two years ago. It’s 100 percent occupied now. That’s right. No vacancy!

Is technology replacing humans in the workforce?

According to the authors of “Race Against the Machine” a just-released book by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee is a scary deep-dive into the job fallout from advances in technology. The authors, who are directors at the MIT Center for Digital Business, warn that automation has picked up in recent years because of a combination of technologies including robotics, numerically controlled machines, computerized inventory control, voice recognition and online commerce.

Since the “official” end of the recession in mid 2009, payrolls have been flat, but corporate spending on equipment and software has increased 26 percent, they note. According to Factset Research, the productivity gains from technology seem to be falling to the bottom line. The S&P 500 companies are expected to report record profits—nearly $1 trillion--and the corporate profit share of the U.S. economy is at a record high when millions are out of work or facing foreclosure of their homes.

It’s true that hundreds of thousands of sales and marketing jobs have been lost or impacted by technology, but Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue companies still need humans for many higher level tasks requiring intuition, creativity and solutions. Leave narrow, literal minded assigned tasks to the computers they advise and smart humans—including B2B marketers—will learn how to create a “partnership” with technology.

SOCIAL, and we don’t mean Facebook

Marc Benioff, founder of the popular cloud-based sales CRM solution, Salesforce.com, frequently says we’re in the midst of an IT revolution based on the acronym SOCIAL—S is for speed; O is for open; C is for collaboration; I is for individuals who can now instantly reach around the world to network and collaborate; A is for alignment (all your ships moving in the same direction) and L is leadership, both top down and bottom up.

In a New York Times Op-Ed piece, Thomas Friedman, quotes LinkedIn CEO, Jeff Weiner on the power of the IT revolution: “It makes it easier and cheaper for anyone anywhere to be an entrepreneur and have access to all the infrastructure of innovation.”

OUR TAKE: Whether you’re a sole practitioner, a 10-person regional outfit or a Fortune 500 powerhouse, you need to have everyone—and every machine—at your organization aligned and in a nimble entrepreneurial mindset. Make some mistakes. Make ‘em hard and fast and see how quickly you can learn from those mistakes.
That’s how we’ll get out of this economic first gear and great B2B marketing is what’ll get us into the overdrive phase.

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Finishing What You Start

What U.S. military and women’s soccer team can learn from savvy marketers. Hiring trends optimistic for digital media. Speed and innovation key.

For better or worse, it’s that time of year when vacations, out-of-office replies and steamy summer weather conspire to slow down the pace of business decision-making worldwide, even in the U.S. For most of us here at HB, it’s the most stressful time of year, because we worry we’re overlooking something or just plain not trying hard enough when the phone’s not ringing off the hook and frantic emails aren’t clogging our inboxes.

Other folks—the smart ones—take this opportunity to catch their breath and contemplate where their businesses are going, what could be going better and what could be done more efficiently.

Thanks to the ease of social media, online video and virtual events, our guess is that there have been a record number of new media initiatives started in both the corporate and not-for-profit world. But, rather than really analyzing what’s working and not-working well, most organizations just keep launching new initiatives to show they’re cool, up-to-speed and always in touch with their customers, clients and constituents. Of course, constant startup, without the discipline of mid-course corrections, much less finishing, will simply drain your energy, your resources and your organization’s patience and take you off your core mission. Either that, or a cynical CFO, VC or IT person asks to see some measure of return on resources expended. At that point, most innovators throw in the towel…or start something new.

Soccer, military and finishing

If you saw Sunday’s heartbreaking World Cup overtime loss by the U.S. women’s soccer team to Japan, you know what we mean. How many times did the commentators and even U.S. national team coach, Pia Sundhage use the term “finishing” or lack thereof? The U.S. kept blowing scoring chances throughout the scoreless first half and through much of the second half. Then every time they managed to bang one through the back of the net, the plucky Japanese squad would score the equalizer a few minutes later. When it came down to overtime penalty kicks, you could tell on the Americans’ faces they knew they would be toast.

We’ll keep our political views out of this forum, but, we can only sustain so much “nation-building” in Afghanistan, Iraq and other war-torn regions around the globe at any given time. Without the resources and strategy to finish what we started, we’ll have nothing to show for all the lost lives and billions of wasted dollars across the globe….kind of like a website with lots of outdated “news”, and old links leading nowhere.

Upbeat hiring trends for digital media professionals

Ed Koller, Managing Partner of Howard-Sloan-Koller Group wrote to clients on Monday that “innovation” was the dominant word in business last year. “But know we know that innovation alone is no longer enough. Speed is the overarching mandated. Speed to market for products; speed to hire for talent.”

HSK says despite the gloomy job market nationwide, there is a “staggering volume of demand” for digital product development, content development, sales and marketing professionals. As New York Times columnist, Thomas Friedman wrote last week, companies “are increasingly picky. They are all looking for the same kind of people —people who not only have the critical thinking skills to do the value-adding jobs that technology can’t, but also people who can invent, adapt and reinvent their jobs every day, in a market that changes faster than ever.”

Finishing what you start (video)

So if you’re an employee, manager or business owner, how do you make sure you and your teams are ready to really finish what they start? We recommend this video by best-selling author and futurist, Seth Godin who argues we don’t need people to be more creative. We need people to keep thrashing and have the courage to ship—when they say they’re going to ship.

WARNING: The vid’s about 18 minutes long. Don’t view it unless you have time to watch it all the way through and give it your undivided attention.

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